40K for a Prelim dressage winner who is easy, sound, and ready to move up? Hah. In Area II, we were seeing 40K for Training level horses with potential but not all that. Out here, I’ve regularly seen the Prelim/Int. horse going for 50K plus, particularly if it’s marketed by a bigger name and/or will win on the first day.
That being said, if you can live with one who might have something funky on the xrays (but still does its job, maybe with maintenance), or one that might have great experience but isn’t wonderful on the flat, or is a less than perfect size, you can still find nice Prelim horses for less than 30K. You’ll have to kiss a lot of frogs to get there, but there really are some diamonds to be found if you can look past a few things. In the midwest, I think there are fewer options, but prices are generally cheaper; out west, I suspect prices go back up again but haven’t shopped out there in awhile.