Belmont Stakes 2015

[gumtree]

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;8172194]
The yoke seems pretty pointless to me. If there are no rings attached, then no need for a breastplate. It the rider wants something to hold on to, then a simple neck strap over the neck would suffice, without anything dangling between the horse’s legs.
But I imagine it has a lot to do with force of habit when tacking up.[/QUOTE]

While I don’t entirely disagree. I prefer a yoke with or without rings over a neck strap. As a rider and trainer.

But I would not send my horses out with the yoke fitted that way. As I said in my previous comment I see it all the time. I am very aware of how much a horse’s chest and shoulders move. I guess most trainers don’t. Not sure what the reason is but if it so not to interfere with the horses moment IMO they are way over estimating how much.

I have never found “rings” to add much for the rider or the horse and rarely use them anymore.

[dressagetraks]

Here’s my favorite photo of AP from Oaklawn in April. This is when he was pulled out of the walking round in the paddock and tucked into a random empty stall for a few minutes while they messed with his bridle.

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/kk8/dressagetraks/American%20Pharoah%20at%20Oaklawn_zpsrbh294le.jpg

[gumtree]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;8177300]
Here’s my favorite photo of AP from Oaklawn in April. This is when he was pulled out of the walking round in the paddock and tucked into a random empty stall for a few minutes while they messed with his bridle.

http://i276.photobucket.com/albums/kk8/dressagetraks/American%20Pharoah%20at%20Oaklawn_zpsrbh294le.jpg[/QUOTE]

Great picture. The assistant trainer is putting on a “tongue tie”. It’s not part of the bridle.

[dressagetraks]

[QUOTE=gumtree;8177383]
Great picture. The assistant trainer is putting on a “tongue tie”. It’s not part of the bridle.[/QUOTE]

I think it had come off/loose/something. This was not when they were first routinely tacking up the horse. They were walking around as if all ready, and then they noticed something (person in between me and him then, so I didn’t see details) and ducked over abruptly into the first available stall. They redid that and then looked like they double checked all attachments/fasteners on his head just for good measure.

Since that stall they borrowed (not his) happened to be almost in front of me, I didn’t mind the interlude at all. He was in there a good two minutes.

[boosma47]

I don’t have the links, but the videos of AP workouts have appeared to show hind end NQRness as he starts out. Anyone else notice this?

[toady123]

Just saw this posted online. He seems like a pretty unflappable, happy-go-lucky dude.

https://www.facebook.com/belmont.stakes/videos/10153426435709090/?fref=nf

What a cutie.

[caffeinated]

[QUOTE=boosma47;8178116]
I don’t have the links, but the videos of AP workouts have appeared to show hind end NQRness as he starts out. Anyone else notice this?[/QUOTE]

I have, but every time I notice it, he seems like he’s almost-trantering and trying to go faster. It’s inconsistent, and usually only for a step or two, and he’s tossing his head/going crooked, and tugging when I notice it, so I think it’s just a fresh horse tugging and trying to go.

[findeight]

Fresh horses can get all balled up if they anticipate being allowed to move out, sometimes they look weird, especially if they are with a pony horse. Almost like they don’t know where to put their feet or in what order concentrating on their excitement to go. Must be exhausting to keep a snug hold of them.

Can we go back to discussing the race coming up here?

Anybody going to wager? Not sure I get the odds they set on some of these. And is there any real speed in this skimpy field?

[Shammy_Davis]

I’ve not done very well with this TC series. Even got blistered on a thread titled with my username. I’m not “glitter glitz or glitter anything” though.

I’ll go with two or three trifecta boxes that include Frosted, Carpe Diem, Frammento, and Tale of Verve. I’ll include AP in one with Frosted and Tale of Verve. Can’t completely rule AP out even if only to stave off stupidity.

I don’t think AP’s derby is indicative of how he will perform in the BS. The Derby is a “bumper cars” race through the first quarter and AP got out ahead of the pack. I do think Frosted’s derby race is indicative of what he is capable of. I haven’t a clue as to whether Tale of Verve can stretch 9f into 12f. His run out seemed strong to me. At first I thought Pletcher knew something about Materiality that no one else caught. Still not sure, but just don’t think 12F is his distance.

I don’t think AP wins the TC. History is against him, if nothing else. I don’t personally think this derby crop deserves a TC winner and certainly not because it is “about time and good for the game.” What’s good for the game is a great horse well remembered from a good crop. Like Secretariat, Citation, War Admiral, Affirmed, Whirlaway, Assault et al. JMHO, but Seattle Slews crop was a little light, but SS overwhelmed everyone with everything else including the connection gossip and “soap opera.”:yes: I don’t think AP’s connections are all that interesting, but maybe “bullimia” can be attributed to owners and jockeys. Time will tell.:eek: Now that would be interesting.

I did think the comments about the yoke were interesting although it probably could have been a “thread” on its own. When I was growing up we use to call the neck strap a “collar.” I checked and we had it wrong. Neck strap has, as best I can tell, been the correct term all along.:sigh: Always thought yoke was a term used for drafts, mules, and oxen.

[caffeinated]

[QUOTE=findeight;8178388]
Anybody going to wager? Not sure I get the odds they set on some of these. And is there any real speed in this skimpy field?[/QUOTE]

I think I am… I have no method to my madness though, probably going to go AP-Keen Ice-Frammento just for the hell of it. I’ve liked Frammento all along, on paper he seems week but I like him and Zito is involved.

That and if those two make it to the front of the pack the odds would at least pay something, LOL

[Shammy_Davis]

[QUOTE=caffeinated;8178172]
I have, but every time I notice it, he seems like he’s almost-trantering and trying to go faster. It’s inconsistent, and usually only for a step or two, and he’s tossing his head/going crooked, and tugging when I notice it, so I think it’s just a fresh horse tugging and trying to go.[/QUOTE]

Sorry but missed the part about speed in the race. JMO if there is speed in the BS, I’d think it would be have to be AP and Keen Ice but wouldn’t be surprised to see Materiality go to the front. As memory serves me, as HOF trainer Sonny Jim Fitzsimmons so correctly suggested, speed kills. Nothing could be more historically correct than in the Belmont. Well with the exception maybe of Secretariat in particular. Ask Sham’s trainer? Zito’s Birdstone over Smarty Jones comes to mind amongst many others. Oh dear, Zito is back. Did anyone check to see if Mary Lou Whitney has a share in his horse? Wouldn’t she just like to be making apologies the second time around?

[Shammy_Davis]

CARPE DIEM is out.

[SnicklefritzG]

[QUOTE=caffeinated;8178515]
I think I am… I have no method to my madness though, probably going to go AP-Keen Ice-Frammento just for the hell of it. I’ve liked Frammento all along, on paper he seems week but I like him and Zito is involved.

That and if those two make it to the front of the pack the odds would at least pay something, LOL[/QUOTE]

I’m planning to wager, primarily as a souvenir if AP wins the TC.

[Zevida]

[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8178555]
As memory serves me, as HOF trainer Sonny Jim Fitzsimmons so correctly suggested, speed kills. Nothing could be more historically correct than in the Belmont. Well with the exception maybe of Secretariat in particular. [/QUOTE]

The Belmont is often won on the front end, and all the Triple Crown winners in the 70s won by being the speed.

[SnicklefritzG]

So who is actually left in the race?

[Plumcreek]

[QUOTE=toady123;8178165]
Just saw this posted online. He seems like a pretty unflappable, happy-go-lucky dude.

https://www.facebook.com/belmont.stakes/videos/10153426435709090/?fref=nf

What a cutie.[/QUOTE]

So he went down the plane ramp, through one van, then across a bit of a bridge into another van? One nice and very unflappable

horse!

[Shammy_Davis]

[QUOTE=Zevida;8178780]
The Belmont is often won on the front end, and all the Triple Crown winners in the 70s won by being the speed.[/QUOTE]

Speed is not the term I’d use. The times in the first half of the Belmont are dawdling as best described historically. “Just off the pace” might best describe winners. My clear recollections of the TC go back a little over 6 decades. It is rare in the TC series that a colt or filly has ever won a jewel, while being the pace or as you say the speed. Da Tara went wire to wire as I recall when Big Brown was pulled up. Risen Star’s win was a speed duel that he won by 14 lengths. Curlin and Rags to Riches another duel but no record. But as to the Belmont, I beg to differ, speed is not the significant factor. The Belmont, I think is best described as tactically managed race requiring a stamina pedigree. I’m guessing but I think if you check average times at half in BS are probably somewhere north of 48 and change. I checked and Secretariat ran his first half in 46 and change.

I will grant you that “speed” is in the mind of the beholder. I guess I’m looking at it from a broader perspective, so your point is well taken.

http://timeformusblog.com/2015/06/02/timeformus-speed-figures-for-the-journey-to-the-triple-crown-2010-2015/

Here’s a link that might be helpful, but to give you an idea Point Given in 2001 was the most recent below 2:27. Secretariat’s record is 2:24.

http://sportslistoftheday.com/2014/06/07/top-10-fastest-winning-times-in-belmont-stakes-history/

This link will give you a historical perspective, though it has not been updated.

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Belmont-Stakes/belmont-stakes-past-winners-1867

And talk about a slim field that produced a stakes record. The 1901 BS was run at 13f. I don’t recall when it changed to 12f. Maybe someone knows when it changed.

http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/1901.pdf

[PeteyPie]

[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8178951]

Here’s a link that might be helpful, but to give you an idea Point Given in 2001 was the most recent below 2:27. Secretariat’s record is 2:24.

http://sportslistoftheday.com/2014/06/07/top-10-fastest-winning-times-in-belmont-stakes-history/

This link will give you a historical perspective, though it has not been updated.

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Belmont-Stakes/belmont-stakes-past-winners-1867

And talk about a slim field that produced a stakes record. The 1901 BS was run at 13f. I don’t recall when it changed to 12f. Maybe someone knows when it changed.

http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/1901.pdf[/QUOTE]

The 1901 BS was won by Commando in 2:21.00, faster than Secretariat’s time, so I don’t think that race was 13f. According to Wikipedia, the race was a mile and five furlongs (13f) from 1867 to 1873 and 11 furlongs in 1901.

The Belmont Stakes was run at a mile and five furlongs from 1867 to 1873; a mile and a quarter in 1890, 1891, 1892, 1895, 1904 and 1905; a mile and a furlong in 1893 and 1894; a mile and three furlongs from 1896 to 1903 and from 1906 to 1925. The current distance of a mile and half was established in 1926.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belmont_Stakes#Distance_and_race_details

[PeteyPie]

[QUOTE=toady123;8178165]
Just saw this posted online. He seems like a pretty unflappable, happy-go-lucky dude.

https://www.facebook.com/belmont.stakes/videos/10153426435709090/?fref=nf

What a cutie.[/QUOTE]

He is a cutie, but a cutie as in, a baby. He looks so young. To me, he looks very unremarkable, in a way which reminds me of things I read about Seabiscuit (except that Seabiscuit had conformational faults which AP doesn’t have). I don’t mean that American Pharoah has anything wrong with him, but he doesn’t have a great presence or charisma. He seems like an ordinary, nice looking, intelligent, and well-behaved Thoroughbred. He is not big or flashy. Very interesting horse.

I hope he wins the Belmont.

[danceronice]

He and Lucky have a very similar face (and color, actually, AP’s a bit heavier boned, though.) I am increasingly convinced that female family has good minds. Just kind of sensible horses–cute but not stunners, and not given to wasting energy. AP just seems very relaxed, and not in the sense he’s tired, just like he’s not going to throw a fit just because.