I don’t own or raise race horses.
so no expert here.
My personal thoughts are we probably aren’t going to see a triple crown winner in our lifetime. Modern day race horses are light boned sprinters.
Incredible luck is the only way it’s happening any time soon.
That said wouldn’t it be grand if I was wrong?
Good luck to all Saturday
I don’t own or raise race horses.
so no expert here.
My personal thoughts are we probably aren’t going to see a triple crown winner in our lifetime. Modern day race horses are light boned sprinters.
Incredible luck is the only way it’s happening any time soon.
That said wouldn’t it be grand if I was wrong?
Good luck to all Saturday
[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8178951]
Speed is not the term I’d use. The times in the first half of the Belmont are dawdling as best described historically. “Just off the pace” might best describe winners. My clear recollections of the TC go back a little over 6 decades. It is rare in the TC series that a colt or filly has ever won a jewel, while being the pace or as you say the speed. Da Tara went wire to wire as I recall when Big Brown was pulled up. Risen Star’s win was a speed duel that he won by 14 lengths. Curlin and Rags to Riches another duel but no record. But as to the Belmont, I beg to differ, speed is not the significant factor. The Belmont, I think is best described as tactically managed race requiring a stamina pedigree. I’m guessing but I think if you check average times at half in BS are probably somewhere north of 2:48 and change.
I will grant you that “speed” is in the mind of the beholder. I guess I’m looking at it from a broader perspective, so your point is well taken.
Here’s a link that might be helpful, but to give you an idea Point Given in 2001 was the most recent below 2:27. Secretariat’s record is 2:24.
http://sportslistoftheday.com/2014/06/07/top-10-fastest-winning-times-in-belmont-stakes-history/
This link will give you a historical perspective, though it has not been updated.
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/Belmont-Stakes/belmont-stakes-past-winners-1867
And talk about a slim field that produced a stakes record. The 1901 BS was run at 13f. I don’t recall when it changed to 12f. Maybe someone knows when it changed.
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/1901.pdf[/QUOTE]
Thanks. Need to get my eyes checked. The BS has gone through a lot of changes. Read yesterday they changed the race “drink” again. I thought it was a can of beer chanced with cigar smoke.
So, with no real speed historically, how many have just gone to the front and controlled the pace? How about tactics tomorrow?
Notably the 8 fastest Belmonts were run in 26 and change or below. Even Secretariat ran the first quarter at that. Affirmed ran the first quarter in 27. It is at the half where the tale of the tape is significant.
Personally, I think a trainer who sends out a horse to set a pace of 28 or below in the first quarter is suicidal. JMHO but I think a horse has to be saved through the half.
Check this pdf out. It has some interesting info. It’s a 2013 edition but couldn’t find anything more recent. See the fastest belmont run. I think I got fractions right.
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/13MG_BS_Records.pdf
[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8178505]
I’ve not done very well with this TC series. Even got blistered on a thread titled with my username. I’m not “glitter glitz or glitter anything” though.
I’ll go with two or three trifecta boxes that include Frosted, Carpe Diem, Frammento, and Tale of Verve. I’ll include AP in one with Frosted and Tale of Verve. Can’t completely rule AP out even if only to stave off stupidity.
I don’t think AP’s derby is indicative of how he will perform in the BS. The Derby is a “bumper cars” race through the first quarter and AP got out ahead of the pack. I do think Frosted’s derby race is indicative of what he is capable of. I haven’t a clue as to whether Tale of Verve can stretch 9f into 12f. His run out seemed strong to me. At first I thought Pletcher knew something about Materiality that no one else caught. Still not sure, but just don’t think 12F is his distance.
I don’t think AP wins the TC. History is against him, if nothing else. I don’t personally think this derby crop deserves a TC winner and certainly not because it is “about time and good for the game.” What’s good for the game is a great horse well remembered from a good crop. Like Secretariat, Citation, War Admiral, Affirmed, Whirlaway, Assault et al. JMHO, but Seattle Slews crop was a little light, but SS overwhelmed everyone with everything else including the connection gossip and “soap opera.”:yes: I don’t think AP’s connections are all that interesting, but maybe “bullimia” can be attributed to owners and jockeys. Time will tell.:eek: Now that would be interesting.
I did think the comments about the yoke were interesting although it probably could have been a “thread” on its own. When I was growing up we use to call the neck strap a “collar.” I checked and we had it wrong. Neck strap has, as best I can tell, been the correct term all along.:sigh: Always thought yoke was a term used for drafts, mules, and oxen.[/QUOTE]
Not to digress from the topic of this thread, but this part of your comment;
“When I was growing up we use to call the neck strap a “collar.” I checked and we had it wrong. Neck strap has, as best I can tell, been the correct term all along. Always thought yoke was a term used for drafts, mules, and oxen”
Came into “play” in my barn the other day. I have some “show horse” riders getting on some of my horses. When tacking one up I said use a “yoke” with him. She gave me a quizzical look so I handed her the “yoke”. Oh, you mean a neck strap, that’s what we call them.
On my side of the fence a neck strap is just that, a strap that goes around their neck, with nothing between their legs.
It’s funny how some “horse” terminology doesn’t cross over. I am sure if I had a “driving” person in the barn and asked to be handed the “yoke” that would be the last thing they would look around for.
We might not be far off from the same age because when I was a kid some did refer to it as a “collar”.
[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8179395]
Notably the 8 fastest Belmonts were run in 26 and change or below. Even Secretariat ran the first quarter at that. Affirmed ran the first quarter in 27. It is at the half where the tale of the tape is significant.
Personally, I think a trainer who sends out a horse to set a pace of 28 or below in the first quarter is suicidal. JMHO but I think a horse has to be saved through the half.
Check this pdf out. It has some interesting info. It’s a 2013 edition but couldn’t find anything more recent. See the fastest belmont run. I think I got fractions right.
http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/file/13MG_BS_Records.pdf[/QUOTE]
What are you talking about? They would practically have to run backwards to run a 28s first quarter. That’s slower than the slowest turf race for a first quarter.
[QUOTE=Zevida;8179749]
What are you talking about? They would practically have to run backwards to run a 28s first quarter. That’s slower than the slowest turf race for a first quarter.[/QUOTE]
As long as Shammy keeps picking against Pharoah, I’m happy. It’s been good luck so far! 
[QUOTE=Sancudo;8179815]
As long as Shammy keeps picking against Pharoah, I’m happy. It’s been good luck so far! ;)[/QUOTE]
I’ll oblige if you promise not to blister me in a separate thread titled “Shammy Davis/Glitter ..” Next year, I hope not to be the butt of so many jokes. Enjoy me while you can.
[QUOTE=gumtree;8179466]
Not to digress from the topic of this thread, but this part of your comment;
“When I was growing up we use to call the neck strap a “collar.” I checked and we had it wrong. Neck strap has, as best I can tell, been the correct term all along. Always thought yoke was a term used for drafts, mules, and oxen”
Came into “play” in my barn the other day. I have some “show horse” riders getting on some of my horses. When tacking one up I said use a “yoke” with him. She gave me a quizzical look so I handed her the “yoke”. Oh, you mean a neck strap, that’s what we call them.
On my side of the fence a neck strap is just that, a strap that goes around their neck, with nothing between their legs.
It’s funny how some “horse” terminology doesn’t cross over. I am sure if I had a “driving” person in the barn and asked to be handed the “yoke” that would be the last thing they would look around for.
We might not be far off from the same age because when I was a kid some did refer to it as a “collar”.[/QUOTE]
I visit some of the international horse sites and I get the impression they think are horse industry has no standards. The older I get the more I tend to agree. On COTH alone look how many opposing views and corrected ideas one sees from various disciplines on the most basic topics.
We are the same age, if you clearly remember the 1952 Kentucky Derby either in person or watching a b/w TV. If true, we can agree that getting old sucks. As for collar, I also remember it as a term for a part of my body my father threatened to grab me by if I continued to misbehave.:lol: Where were all the child abuse laws when we clearly needed them.
I’ve only ever heard “collar” used in reference to work harnesses with an actual COLLAR. The strap that’s like a standing martingale without the piece going to the bridle I’ve seen in racing context called either a neck strap or yoke interchangeably. The only SLIGHT rule seems to be if the y-fork is attached it’s a yoke. (I use one sometimes if I’m taking Lucky out on trails or galloping him as 1. he’s used to wearing one and 2. it’s more stable than just looping a stirrup leather around his neck to give me a ‘grab bar’. Without the connection to the girth it slides up and down the neck too much, defeating the whole purpose. It took some getting used to that it does hang a bit lower than a martingale but it’s never seemed to bother him.)
[QUOTE=danceronice;8179903
]I’ve only ever heard “collar” used in reference to work harnesses with an actual COLLAR. The strap that’s like a standing martingale without the piece going to the bridle I’ve seen in racing context called either a neck strap or yoke interchangeably. The only SLIGHT rule seems to be if the y-fork is attached it’s a yoke. (I use one sometimes if I’m taking Lucky out on trails or galloping him as 1. he’s used to wearing one and 2. it’s more stable than just looping a stirrup leather around his neck to give me a ‘grab bar’. Without the connection to the girth it slides up and down the neck too much, defeating the whole purpose. It took some getting used to that it does hang a bit lower than a martingale but it’s never seemed to bother him.)[/QUOTE]
So, child abuse laws had been enacted by the time you began riding.
[QUOTE=Shammy Davis;8180138]
So, child abuse laws had been enacted by the time you began riding.[/QUOTE]
Anyone else spill their drink when they read this? Lol good one Shammy.
May the best horse win. Enjoy the race everybody.
There is a good article on Pioneer of the Nile in today’s NYTimes.
His LIKES and his DISLIKES are funny.
[QUOTE=Zevida;8179749]
What are you talking about? They would practically have to run backwards to run a 28s first quarter. That’s slower than the slowest turf race for a first quarter.[/QUOTE]
You are absolutely right. Don’t know what I was thinking.
Can’t claim the dubious honor of watching the '52 Derby on b&w TV. We didn’t get a TV until '54 or so. First Derby I remember clearly watching was Carry Backs and was long out of diapers by then.
Have decided not to wager today. Something TC fans should thank me for, seems to be the kiss of death whether I go for or against. Made some good money going against, lost more wagering in favor of a TC winner.
So I’ll just let them race and watch.
Just musing here, all the very recent footage of AP since he got to Belmont? He looks like he’s thriving. Without sounding too woo woo here, he’s got those little wrinkles around his eye that make them look like they are deep in thought, he looks like he has an old soul, thoughtful, wise and calm taking it all in. No bug eyed youngster with a short fuse there. 100% professional racehorse.
There was one shot of him getting a bath yesterday morning. Straight side shot, front legs together, one back leg slightly behind, neck low, nose reaching for the hose stretching the throat latch. OMG. That’s some horse there in that plain bay package…topline and hip to die for.
I wish him luck but…
And…being a hunter (pony) person I am drooling over his great trot!!!
[QUOTE=findeight;8180488]
Can’t claim the dubious honor of watching the '52 Derby on b&w TV. We didn’t get a TV until '54 or so. First Derby I remember clearly watching was Carry Backs and was long out of diapers by then.
Have decided not to wager today. Something TC fans should thank me for, seems to be the kiss of death whether I go for or against. Made some good money going against, lost more wagering in favor of a TC winner.
So I’ll just let them race and watch.
Just musing here, all the very recent footage of AP since he got to Belmont? He looks like he’s thriving. Without sounding too woo woo here, he’s got those little wrinkles around his eye that make them look like they are deep in thought, he looks like he has an old soul, thoughtful, wise and calm taking it all in. No bug eyed youngster with a short fuse there. 100% professional racehorse.
There was one shot of him getting a bath yesterday morning. Straight side shot, front legs together, one back leg slightly behind, neck low, nose reaching for the hose stretching the throat latch. OMG. That’s some horse there in that plain bay package…topline and hip to die for.
I wish him luck but…[/QUOTE]
and that all horses and jockeys return safe and sound.
I can’t believe I did this, but I just put money on AP to win… and it’s not raining…
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