Some interesting angles in this one.
There’s a Triple crown on the line, with the best chance in year’s. A horse that has yet to break a sweat and comes to the Belmont off two glorified workouts, one called the Kentucky Derby the other the Preakness. The horses that came up short in recent years all had question marks about their pedigrees and stamina. Big Brown being a 3x3 Northern Dancer and 3x4 to Damascus should have no problems with 12f.
There’s the Better than Honour three-peat possibility, an amazing achievement for her if Casino Drive pulls it off. Crazy when you think about it, for a mare to have three foals born in three successive years go on to win the same classic race.
Then there’s the foreign intrigue, and the interest Japanese racing fans will bring. 10,000 Japanese fans flew to Paris to watch Deep Impact in the Arc, granted Casino Drive is not the superstar the DI was, but he’ll garner some serious attention from Japanese media and fans. There’s also the fact that they may completely skew the parimutuel pools, like they did at Longchamp.
Besides BB and CD, other likely runners are Denis of Cork, Tale of Etaki. Both of these horses finished strong in the Derby and will have had 5 weeks rest, but I still can’t seem them seriously troubling BB. Tomicito might be a runner, but with his disappointing runs since he came stateside he appears to not be up to this standard, and wouldn’t surprise me if his connections pass this one up.
There will be a few others filling out the spots, but it looks like a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive. The Belmont will only be CD’s 3rd lifetime start. He one once in Japan, then was shipped to NY where he won the Peter Pan G2 off a two and half month lay-off (which included a month of quarantine). When asked to compare both horses, Kent Desormeaux who has ridden both, was coy and was reluctant to pick one over the other, which shows what he thinks of Casino Drive’s ability.
But on the evidence of the first two legs, Casino Drive will have to be some horse to beat Big Brown.