Breeding Question? Speed over Stamina?

What is your preferred method for trying to breed for a classic racehorse? Speed over Stamina or Stamina over speed. I always thought speed came more from the stallion but today I was told the percentages are better if the mare was a sprinter and the stallion was 2 turn. Any thoughts and are there any statistics that would show which one has been more successful.

There is very little “rhyme or reason” why things work with breeding decisions. That’s why sometimes breeding the “best to the best” results in a non racehorse, and that surprises happen from less than stellar pedigrees. That’s what keeps everyone guessing and the reason why people are always exercising their opinions with their breeding decisions. That’s what keeps the grass roots people in the industry, rather than only the billionaires. That’s why people buy the less expensive pedigrees at the sales… the knowledge that surprises happen, and you can’t tell for sure until they actually get to the races. Different people LIKE different things in a pedigree, and in an individual. Rich people think that the more it costs, the better it is. But that isn’t always the case, is it? Sometimes it is, which keeps the rich people spending their money at the sales and in the breeding shed… which keeps the industry profitable. But what costs a lot isn’t necessarily next year’s superstar.

7 Likes

I concur with @NancyM. There are many breeding theories, dozens, if not hundreds. If one (or several) actually worked a majority of the time, then no one would try anything else.

IMO, the best way to breed a classic racehorse is to breed a proven Oaks winner (like Believe You Can) to a proven classic winner (such as American Pharoah). And even then, you’re still rolling the dice.

2 Likes

I agree with both of you that there’s always uncertainty in breeding. I have experienced it and yes the rich play the numbers game and hope 1 out every 5/6 horses succeed and make up for the rest but my main question was which method has been more successful because I can’t find any statistics anywhere. Thank you for your responses.

Secretariat had two full sisters, one of whom could not run fast enough to break a sweat. The other was Syrian Sea, a stakes winner.

1 Like

Though I have heard people say you should breed stamina to speed and/or speed to stamina, I’ve never heard anyone specify which trait needs to come from which sex. I would guess that part doesn’t matter, otherwise there would be successful racehorses who possess the “wrong” aptitude for their sex being passed over for breeding and I don’t see that happening.

Historically (and even as recently as 20 years ago when I started breeding TBs) it was very hard for a pure sprinter to get a stallion deal. A horse needed to prove himself at a mile or longer to be considered as a viable stallion prospect. So traditionally, the stamina would have come from the top of the pedigree. Now, of course, that has changed, and any stallion who has a successful race career (and even some who don’t) are picked by a farm and given a chance at stud.

This made me laugh out loud. We bought one once…the trainer said the mare couldn’t outrun her (the trainer’s) grandmother. :grinning:

Someone on COTH owned an A.P. Indy/Silverbulletday gelding. Proven sire and an Oaks-winning mare from a better than average female family.

To my knowledge he never raced - only six of Silverbulletday’s 13 foals did - but I don’t know if that was because he was slow or he got injured early.

2 Likes

One thing to consider is that classic winners, who run over longer distances, are more likely to go to stud with good owners, on a good farm and cover a better mare book - because people want to win the classics. There are stallions promoted for speed or precocious talent but the greats, the breed-defining stallions, tend to be winning at longer distances. Ideally, a stallion shows it can do both. Then the fun comes in digging through pedigrees to find the very best mare - because mare are so important but the stats are hard to find with just one foal a year compared with a stallion producing 300!

1 Like

Interesting. You know far more than me, but I feel like it’s gotten tougher for most sprinters to get a fair crack at a stallion deal rather than easier. The only thing that seems to overcome that is precociousness that gives them a crack at those early 2 and 3 year old graded stakes. If you can get that, you’re golden.

As far as sprinters as stallions, practical joke has been very popular and successful with Practical Move who has been able to win up to 11 furlongs. However most other progeny have been like him and won at sprinting. But they can be successful at 9 furlongs and longer if mated to a mare with stamina in pedigree. Need to research of any successes the other way around with sprinter on female side.

IMO, with the sales market so heavily favoring new stallions, every horse with even the slightest of credentials will get a stud deal somewhere. Stamina has ceased to be a criteria now that horses can go to stud after a single start (looking at you Maclean’s Music and new 2025 stallion Heartland). No need to find out if they can even cover a distance of ground–good advertising will overcome that deficiency.

Good colts’ race careers are getting shorter and shorter because the money is in the stallion deals. Why risk racing when you can make more money in the breeding shed? The most sought after stallion last year was Flightline. His 6 starts (lifetime) were considered to be a more than full career. :roll_eyes:

(Sorry for the somewhat off topic rant.)

2 Likes

Well that goes into a whole new topic! These horses are retiring way too soon and it is hurting the sport in my opinion. Look at the graded stakes races for for older horses and they can barely get 6 horse fields. It’s a shame but I do understand that the money for stallions is hard to pass up but something needs to be done and also how many mares are bred to stallions 277 for Practical Joke last year is crazy.

Yep. I completely agree. But Macleans Music and Heartland are yesteryear’s Pioneering and Danzig. We’ve always had the occasional well-bred but lightly raced phenom.

Totally agree with your rant, though. Thoroughbred breeding has become so formulaic and pigeon-holed for the sales, and not in a good way.

I have to admit that I was pretty amazed at what happened with Flightline. Yes, he won. Yes, he was impressive, but then, so are a whole bunch of horses. For him to be retired so quickly was disappointing. He may be very well bred, but then, so are a bunch of horses who will never sire anything. Do those six races guarantee that he’ll make a great sire? I dunno, but they undoubtably will give him every chance, as he’ll have the best of mares.

1 Like

Does any race guarantee a horse will make a great sire?

Even historically “stallion making” races aren’t a sure thing.

TB breeding is such an international market these days and buyers go where they find good horses. The Tatterstall October Yearling Sale in Newmarket has just finished two weeks of huge business, with sales across the 4 books surpassing £200 million for the first time (and 86% clearance). Buyers came from the US, Japan, Arab states, Australia, Ireland, France…

1 Like

Agree and I hope more owners buy from overseas including Australia and Japan and bring the mares over here because we need new bloodlines if not in 5-10 years all pedigrees will looks the same and horses will break down

This made me LOL.

The current leading sire in Japan is 71% North American in his first 3 generations.

The current leading sire in Australia might seem a bit more diverse at cursory glance, with only 29% North American blood in his first 3 generations. Until you realize he is 4x5 inbred to both Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector and has at least two other crosses to Northern Dancer off the page.

There is very little genetic diversity in the worldwide major markets anymore. The genetic diversity lives in the lesser horses and smaller breeding programs, occasionally “freaking” and finding its way back into the major markets.

2 Likes

I disagree. They all go back to the same pedigree if you go back far enough but targeting mares with at least 3 generations of separation would help. What’s happening here is that the BT mares are all being bred to the same top 10 stallions and then what you see at sales is most the pedigrees have a half or 3/4 siblings to someone else. This cannot continue it’s just a matter of time before the breed breaks down. I think you actually see it already.