Breeding Values in %

[Kyzteke]

As I continue on my Fool’s Quest to breed a winning race horse, I am still researching stallions. Can anyone give me any insight as to what is considered “average” for the following: Foals of Race Age/Starters, Starters/Winners, GSW %, GSP %, Black type %, etc.

I can surmise that if a stallion has 86% of his get make it to the track, that is good. But if a stallion has 17% SP for instance…is that better than average or what?

And I did try to look in the Racing 101 part, but this new format was not my friend.

[halo]

Might be worthwhile to pull up the Blood Horse sire lists. They give a lot of that information. In general, a stallion is considered successful if he has 5% stakes winners from FOALS (not starters). Only about 1/3 of all stallions actually improve their mares, which is determined by comparing the AEI (average earnings index) to the CI (cumulutive index). Even that statistic is “it depends”, as very few stallions who get the absolute top mares will improve on them. However, a stallion who gets very average mares (an CI of around 1 is average) is considered “moving up his mares” if his AEI is higher than his CI, as in he’s getting runners with basically no help from his mares. Take a look at the stallion lists; you will probably start to get a good feel of what good numbers should be.

[Texarkana]

I agree with @halo to start by comparing the AEI and CI. Then start looking at who is considered the leaders for the area and see what their statistics look like. That is really good advice from Halo.

Numbers can be influenced by a lot of different factors: size of the book, price point of the fee, location of the stallion, number of years since he entered stud, etc.

[Kyzteke]

Thanks guys! I have been looking at the Sire lists, running “True Nicks” hypothetical matings, etc. etc. I already know what kind of horse I want to produce: a distance horse (mile or better), one that does turf or dirt, a GSW (doesn’t have to be G1) and a horse whose paid his way and retired (mostly) sound. So I’m looking at stallions who were that kind of horse…stallions like Lea, Charming Kitten, Lookin At Lucky, etc. etc.

And of course the stud fees that are being offered. As in all things “horse” no matter what the stated price is, it’s always possible to get a lower price. And right now, with COVID, most farms have lowered their stud fees. So that part works out.

Thanks SO much for the explanations of AEI and CI are…I’ve been pretty much ignoring those 'cause I didn’t know what they meant.

But don’t you have to have a certain # of foals on the ground for that statistic to be relevant? Some of the best deals being offered are from stallions new in 2020 0r 2021.

I tell you one thing…it gripes my butt everytime I think how much it’s going to cost me in “worthless” $$ – stuff like shipping back East for breeding, board, etc. etc. After all these years breeding WBs with chilled or frozen, I know I can get a mare pregnant most of the time for about $300-600 for vet costs.

To get this foal on the ground (not counting stud fee, which I don’t have to pay till the foal stands and nurses) it will cost me about $7000. Grrrrrr!!!

[Kyzteke]

How exactly do they determine “improves”? Like if a mare has never raced/won, her get by that stallion DO? What statistic do they use as a measure?

[Texarkana]

I am probably going to botch this. But all of these statistics, as well as assessing improvement, are based on the average earnings of the total TB crop on a year by year basis.

AEI looks at how much the stallion’s get earned against the total crop of TBs for the year.

CI takes a specific stallion’s offspring and only compares their earnings against the earnings of all foals from the mares in his book, instead of the entire population.

1.0 is average. If a CI or AEI is 1.0, it means those horses were averaging the average earnings for all TBs of the crop.

Below 1.0 means the horses, on average, are earning less than the average TB for those given years.

Above 1.0 is good— that means you are earning more than the average TB.

If the stallion has an AEI of 3.0, his offspring are earning three times what their peers are earning.

But if the CI is also 3.0, that stallion isn’t improving the mares: he was getting good mares who were already producing those types of earners. If the CI is 2.0, that stallion was getting good mares and his get were doing worse than the average foal out of those mares.

But like you point out, all of these statistics are influenced by the size of the book. Small book stallions’ statistics can fluctuate wildly. The same goes for stallions who are early in their careers.

Breeding TBs is really thankless if you don’t live in a “hub.” I can commiserate with your plight. I tried for several years in Tennessee and would have been better off lighting the money on fire. I was even driveable to Lexington, but the savings I recouped by not boarding in KY were spent on fuel and trying to recover mistakes made with bad veterinary care. Now that I’m back in MD, I intend to give it another go, but not until I’m in a more stable financial state. If you aren’t starting with a large fortune, it’s easy to get over your head in a hurry.

[Texarkana]

I think I made an error in my numbers. I will fix when I have a chance. Running on little sleep over here!

[halo]

The CI is explained as thus: The Comparable Index (CI) measures the average earnings of progeny produced from the annual book of mares bred to a sire, when those same mares were bred to other sires. In other words, CI indicates the producing quality of the mares bred to a stallion.

[Texarkana]

After a good nights sleep, I don’t think I messed up my numbers. I was having one of those moments yesterday were numbers were swirling around in my head and not making any sense! And I’ll confess, my understanding of how these statistics are calculated is really rudimentary. There are experts who know far more than myself on this forum!

[Kyzteke]

Ok. So if I understand this correctly, ANY stallion who could even produce a runner o/o my mare would improve her. Her 1st foal disappeared into the mist, can’t find any record of him. She had fillies (one by Archarcharch & one by Tizwhy). Neither made it to the track. One (apparently) “didn’t show much” and one couldn’t get her gate card (trainer error, I’m betting). So, despite her respectable auction price, and impressive pedigree, so far she hasn’t produced crap. My racing friend says “well, at least she hasn’t proved her babies can’t run…they don’t even get to the track!”

[Kyzteke]

Thanks so much for all the info. I’m surprised to hear you had such bad breeding luck…I would have thought getting a pregnancy via live cover would be a slam dunk! Luckily, I have ace repro help here, so we will have the mare cultured, cycling & pretty much ready to go when I sent her there.

She has conceived 4 times & had 3 foals – she will only be 12 next year – so will hope for the best…as I have said before, I kinda know this is a Fool’s Errand…maybe that’s what I should name the horse!!

[Texarkana]

In your case, I might look at what is successful for the state program you wish your resulting foal to participate in.

For example, if you’re thinking the foal will race in Florida, what sires are leading there? You can use that info with other statistics and analysis tools to figure out what mating may be best.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-register/

I bought an older stakes-producing mare and leased a younger mare with a less impressive production record. Both were fertile and I also thought it would be a slam dunk. But I lived in an area with really limited equine veterinary care. The one local equine vet fancied himself a breeder and repro expert, but had a lot of holes in his knowledge… like sending me to KY to breed on what was actually a mid-cycle follicle. I thought I had enough repro experience from my previous jobs at vet clinics and breeding farms to overcome the mediocre vet care, but it was not meant to be.

I’m not saying my experience will be your experience. You sound like you are in a better veterinary situation. I’m just sharing as a “heads up” that I ran into a lot of unexpected and expensive problems trying to breed live cover far away from home.