I was just looking at the results of the auction. Top selling horse was around $80K US, average was around $20K US. To me seems like pretty average, air pricing. If we had an auction in the US that garnered those prices do you think breeders would feel it was a success or a loss?
i’ld consider it realistic.
auction prices like published by PSI or other main events (european licensings) might be real or not, but they certainly cover less than 1% of the total production of any given sport horse breed. at the same time they drive 150% of any given non-sport horse breeders crazy and suggest, six digit prices might be realistic and worth breeding for.
fact is:
high denisty horse breeding countries like germany currently produce 20.000 foals per year (28.852 mares bred in 2013, further decrease in 2014 expected). assume an optimistic 100 of these might eventually sell for six digit prices (0,05% of ttl production) in due course.
where does that leave the average sale of the remaining 19,900 (99,5%)?
nowhere.
it is, however, a fair assumption to make that the majority of the remaining 19.900 horses will never even sell close to break-even (<10k). for the simple reason that breeding numbers keep falling for the fifth year in a row and have already more than halfed from their peak in 2010 (above 70.000 registered brood mares in germany alone).
i cannot speak for the US, maybe things are different overthere and it is a completely different world.
Fannie Mae, do you think with breeding numbers consistently falling, and they are falling here, that prices will at the least stop falling, and optimistically, rise?
i don’t know but that sure is the song all verbands’ officials sing all over the place year by year:
breeders, keep breeding, supply is getting smaller, prices must go up (eventually)!
average sales haven’t improved yet, thus, many breeders still don’t produce at or above break even. guess it is a general economic scala:
you have to go way below the bottom of the curve in order for rising demand to cause (time lagged) increase of breeding. timelag seems to be a natural economic behaviour.
what has changed visibly, though, are rising prices for top quality.
we had this topic before in another thread (don’t remember what topic it was) and my example was that top trainers/riders are now forced to look at even younger horses in order to get hold of above average sport horses. what used to be a wide spread riding horse market (age 4-6) has moved toward 2-3yr old mkt (reason licensing prices are going crazy for top qaulity) since not only stallion onwers but also top trainers/riders are forced into that younger horse market in order to fish for the smaller number of highest quality asap.
So based on that, Fannie mae, would you say that selling weanlings/yearlings is probably not a good idea, if the younger horses, just being started or close to it, have a chance at bringing higher prices? Is it broodmares/foals prices that are bringing auction averages down? (Assuming quality horses)
only speaking for germany, there is no yearling market over here.
either foals/weanlings or riding horses.
the trend for most breeders is moving to producing for foalmarket in order to exclude further risk and expenses. producing a riding horse requires long term funding and costs of training/riding. major risk is x-ray/vet check and the gap between “sellable” riding horse vs “non sellable” or price damaging riding horse production has become irrational due to vet check/x-rays.
most riding horses are for further sale and if they don’t come with excellent vet check/x-rays they ultimately fall to foal price which is an irrational deal breaker and production killer.
… not so different in the US, either… Weanlings sell, yearlings not so much, and then folks will start looking at a 2 1/2 year old again.
I have occasionally kept a promising youngster and then had it started by a pretty well-known trainer with the goal of selling it as a 4-5 year old. The reason for doing that is to “show off” my breeding program and get my name “out there”. And yes, it does make a difference but you also have to be willing and able to spend the money on training and showing before you ever see a return.
