Buckle up folks--tariffs are coming

[Calvincrowe]

Clanter- (again, trying to keep this farm related, not political)
Federal and state lands may well be sold to corporate buyers to ‘build homes’ on, or for mineral or oil speculation. This includes lands previously protected by designation as parkland. I can speak to privately owned timber lands in WA being closed off to the public for any use (mostly due to trespassing, vandalism and environmental damage caused by motor vehicle and firearms use). This has impacted equestrian access to wildlands for trail riding.

Tariffs are a terrible economic idea, which has been proven since Colonial times in N. AM. So many citizens fail to see how utterly intertwined CA/US/MX economies are. Let’s hope wiser heads prevail in the long term.

[Scribbler]

Yes. Not just entwined, but deliberately developed in a mutually beneficial way over the 40 years since NAFTA was first signed. Trump himself signed off on the renewal in 2020. Many industries in the USA have expanded and stabilized under the protection of the free trade agreement.

The North American Free trade agreements make the cross border transit of components, raw materials and finished goods something very different from importing from China where there is no agreement.

The North American agreement is still in place, it’s been temporarily over run by a presidential declaration of a state of national emergency. That is a presidential right. I expect there will be pushback on how legitimate that emergency is.

Basically all big American manufacturing and especially the auto industry just had the rug pulled out from under them after setting up plants and supply chains in Canada and Mexico. If Ford assembles a vehicle in Canada or Mexico it is now subject to a 25 per cent duty to bring it back to the US to sell.

[avjudge]

@LCDR

Meanwhile my pension and social security income will lag behind the cost of running the farm. I wish I had an idea how the stock market will fare as that’s where my pension fund income is generated

And I’m not sure the Social Security is a sure thing, either.

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

@Scribbler

@Bonnie2

A lot of Canadian hay around here. I’ve always wondered how Canadian hay can be cheaper than local but a lot of hay fields here turned into corn when corn prices were so high. I guess hay prices are going up.

Probably due to the exchange rate on the dollar.

This is pretty relevant to the overall discussion of tariffs. And related impacts on consumers in both the US and Canada. It’s unlikely that exchange rates will remain stable with the imposition of these tariffs.

Currently I think it’s about $1 US dollar to $1.47 Canadian dollar.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the markets open tomorrow. And if something volatile happens with futures markets.

I saw this analysis midway through the week predicting the exchange rate could move as far as $1 US dollar to $1.70 Canadian dollar. But… I think this was before Trudeau announced his proposed retaliatory measures.

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/canadian-dollar-may-hit-record-low-if-us-imposes-25-tariffs-says-wells-fargo-93CH-3837257

How it all impacts eventual prices consumers pay for any number of things? That’s hard to say. I think Mexico is probably more vulnerable in terms of the impact of exchange rates on this policy than Canada. Plus… there’s the issue of remittances going to Mexico. If there’s an announcement that the US plans to tax those remittances… that will result in a lot of pressure on Mexico.

Hopefully this whole thing lasts a few weeks at most, and then cooler heads prevail, and agreements are struck regarding serious cooperation around key issues.

[Horse_Daft]

I am so saddened about all of this. As our Prime Minister said last night, quoting JFK, “Geography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners, and necessity has made us allies.” I feel like we’re getting divorced

Anyway, I use Tribute Essential K, love the product, but unfortunately will now have to switch to a Canadian product.

[Scribbler]

@Virginia_Horse_Mom

@Scribbler

@Bonnie2

A lot of Canadian hay around here. I’ve always wondered how Canadian hay can be cheaper than local but a lot of hay fields here turned into corn when corn prices were so high. I guess hay prices are going up.

Probably due to the exchange rate on the dollar.

This is pretty relevant to the overall discussion of tariffs. And related impacts on consumers in both the US and Canada. It’s unlikely that exchange rates will remain stable with the imposition of these tariffs.

Currently I think it’s about $1 US dollar to $1.47 Canadian dollar.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the markets open tomorrow. And if something volatile happens with futures markets.

I saw this analysis midway through the week predicting the exchange rate could move as far as $1 US dollar to $1.70 Canadian dollar. But… I think this was before Trudeau announced his proposed retaliatory measures.

https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/canadian-dollar-may-hit-record-low-if-us-imposes-25-tariffs-says-wells-fargo-93CH-3837257

How it all impacts eventual prices consumers pay for any number of things? That’s hard to say. I think Mexico is probably more vulnerable in terms of the impact of exchange rates on this policy than Canada. Plus… there’s the issue of remittances going to Mexico. If there’s an announcement that the US plans to tax those remittances… that will result in a lot of pressure on Mexico.

Hopefully this whole thing lasts a few weeks at most, and then cooler heads prevail, and agreements are struck regarding serious cooperation around key issues.

Very good points. The floating currency rate is one of those speculation stock market gambles that unfortunately affects ordinary people. A low Canadian dollar is good for exporters. But interestingly even when the dollar is at par, American retailers like Banana Republic are 30 per cent more expensive in Canada.

I don’t know if Canada’s new tarrifs on American clothing apply to American companies with Canadian subsidiaries importing from China, like BR. Do their clothes transit through the US or just arrive direct in Canada? I have never given this any thought before! Obviously all the Costco stuff comes straight off the ships at harbor and onto trains across Canada.

As far as remittance to Mexico I’m sure there are already many ways to send it without it being tracked. How can you track and tax e transfers especially if the person doing the transfer doesn’t have a social security number and is invisible to the US government?

[Marla_000]

Remember Musk predicted these hardships ( tariffs and price escalation) AND a stock market crash. His words
So far all they predicted has come true.
Buckle up indeed

[FjordBCRF]

@Scribbler

Anyhow, I am interested to watch the response from corporate America as all the trade patterns of the past 40 years are destroyed.

Early risk analysis scenarios at my (global) company are predicting we will take somewhere around a $100,000,000 hit. We are primed to offshore more entry level work to India (great for US college grads ) and AI will make up for any attrition.

Thanks to Biden, we are seeing ~160% bonuses for a stellar 2024, but future forecasts are looking much more grim from here on out.

[Scribbler]

Interesting!

Perhaps the new college graduates can be drafted for work parties to pick the produce after migrant labor is gone. Kind of like the Cultural Revolution in Communist China when intellectuals were sent to remote rural areas in part to destroy the educated class as an oppositional force.

I think the end goal is to broadly extend the scope of Presidential power, not to enact and stick with a given policy. If the tarrifs end up getting withdrawn under pressure, there will be many more actions testing the scope of Presidential power and where or if checks and balances can or will limit him.

[Marla_000]

Exactly. But the best part is, we’ll never have to vote again. /s

[Angela_Freda]

@Old_Mac_Donald

My bet is that DT opens up US slaughter plants again. P25 already specifies that mustangs are to be moved from storage to profit systems so it is a logical conclusion that US plants will be the next step.

Saw this coming

@Old_Mac_Donald

at least the poor animals aren’t subjected to extended travel over the border.

Unless there’s a plant in every state, and there won’t be, they’ll still travel very far.

[Zu_Zu]

Toilet Paper !

• during Covid had to lock my car if I stopped on the way home from the grocery • for fear someone would steal the toilet paper !
  Check out the list of items from Canada !

[Virginia_Horse_Mom]

@Scribbler

I don’t know if Canada’s new tarrifs on American clothing apply to American companies with Canadian subsidiaries importing from China, like BR. Do their clothes transit through the US or just arrive direct in Canada? I have never given this any thought before! Obviously all the Costco stuff comes straight off the ships at harbor and onto trains across Canada.

The clothing issues are very interesting when it comes to China and some of their low priced brands like SHEIN. They have long benefited from a “de minimus” loophole. This loophole allowed goods to ship directly from overseas to Americans, just so long as the value of each package stayed under $800 (US). They could do that without any customs declaration.

It’s been cheap, direct, untaxed and unregulated. This is law that’s existed a long time. Well before the existence of e-commerce retailers.

Last year the US received a billion packages from China through this loophole.

Anyway… apparently that is getting stopped on Tuesday. Not sure it will impact clothing brands you mention though, as it’s all about direct to consumer shipments.

[Scribbler]

@Virginia_Horse_Mom

@Scribbler

I don’t know if Canada’s new tarrifs on American clothing apply to American companies with Canadian subsidiaries importing from China, like BR. Do their clothes transit through the US or just arrive direct in Canada? I have never given this any thought before! Obviously all the Costco stuff comes straight off the ships at harbor and onto trains across Canada.

The clothing issues are very interesting when it comes to China and some of their low priced brands like SHEIN. They have long benefited from a “de minimus” loophole. This loophole allowed goods to ship directly from overseas to Americans, just so long as the value of each package stayed under $800 (US). They could do that without any customs declaration.

It’s been cheap, direct, untaxed and unregulated. This is law that’s existed a long time. Well before the existence of e-commerce retailers.

Last year the US received a billion packages from China through this loophole.

Anyway… apparently that is getting stopped on Tuesday. Not sure it will impact clothing brands you mention though, as it’s all about direct to consumer shipments.

I’m in Canada

[Horsecrazy3]

Just got back form grocery shopping. Didn’t have to buy a single USA product. Bought Canadian, Ecuadorian, German, Guatemalan and Mexican produce, meat, canned and dry goods. With a little sleuthing I just had to change brands. But then I don’t buy prepackage food so it wasn’t that hard to cut out the USA imported stuff. Good to know that my family’s eating will not be impacted by Trump. I have to say, got to love our free trade agreement with Mexico, who can pick up the slack from the USA in the produce area. We can buy what the USA wants to tariff from them and in turn we do not have to buy the USA produce Canada must now tariff in response.

[Scribbler]

@Horsecrazy3

Just got back form grocery shopping. Didn’t have to buy a single USA product. Bought Canadian, Ecuadorian, German, Guatemalan and Mexican produce, meat, canned and dry goods. With a little sleuthing I just had to change brands. But then I don’t buy prepackage food so it wasn’t that hard to cut out the USA imported stuff. Good to know that my family’s eating will not be impacted by Trump. I have to say, got to love our free trade agreement with Mexico, who can pick up the slack from the USA in the produce area. We can buy what the USA wants to tariff from them and in turn we do not have to buy the USA produce Canada must now tariff in response.

There isn’t that much direct imported food from the US, though here on the West Coast we get California produce. It tends to be pretty yuck when it’s out of season.

Canada does have a lot of American subsidiaries manufacturing American brand names but with recipes tailored to Canadian tastes (more salt, less sugar apparently). Kraft makes Canadian ketchup in Quebec for instance.

[Horsecrazy3]

Yes, I saw that some of the American brand names were in name only and used Canadian sourced ingredients and were made in Canada. Have no problem buying them as it supports Canadian growers, workers and businesses.

[Amberley]

Watch the video I posted. It’s completely batshit insane but technocrats want land to set up their own city-states on and they expect to get it in the US in return for funding the election. This is not a conspiracy theory they are outright saying it and so did Trump. They tired buying it up in CA but a) are running into the obvious legal hurdles and b) bought land that is vulnerable to sea level rise.

So it’ll be sold to the highest bidder and they’ll be legally able to run it as if it were their own country essentially. And once that happens we will never, ever get it back in public ownership. That’s a very big deal out west. And water is an even bigger one. If water is privatized people won’t be able to afford hamsters west of the rockies and east of the cascades, never mind horses.

[Amberley]

@Virginia_Horse_Mom

The clothing issues are very interesting when it comes to China and some of their low priced brands like SHEIN. They have long benefited from a “de minimus” loophole. This loophole allowed goods to ship directly from overseas to Americans, just so long as the value of each package stayed under $800 (US). They could do that without any customs declaration.

It’s been cheap, direct, untaxed and unregulated. This is law that’s existed a long time. Well before the existence of e-commerce retailers.

That’s actually the one change I am on board with. Shein goods are made with slave labor and I’m sure Temu is too. Fast fashion and cheap plastic crap are a plague on the planet.

[Pippigirl]

So are you suggesting Canada stay quiet and let trump dump on Canada and Mexico? We could then hope he goes away and leaves us alone… What do you think the answer is?