I worry you might be over-valuing scope over everything else. I sometimes wonder if the term no scope no hope has gotten a little out of hand. Scope just is not the panacea everyone thinks it is.
From your description, rideable is what’s really important. If a horse is scopey, that means it’s athletic. Super athletic horses don’t always make for great amateur mounts. If you have both and you want the horse sound that can get expensive fast.
I vetted a 7 year old mare in Europe last month who was scopey enough to do the 1.40s with a pro. I would say it was too soon to be sure she could do the 1.40s with an amateur. For sure, put her in a jump shoot, she’s going to fly over the standards, but I don’t think that’s a real test of this horse can get around a big course with someone newer to jumping this big. I hear you when you’ve said you’ve jumped big before, but from your description, it sounds like you’re not confirmed at that level? Maybe that’s unfair, but that’s my sense and I mean no disrespect at all. I run my mouth a lot for being queen of the 1.25m
Anywho, this mare was quite rideable and priced at 150k. The sellers know her rideability is what makes her valuable both in Europe and the states. The video of her visibly inexperienced mom riding around the 1m and not flicking an ear at mistakes maybe adds 25% to her value.
Despite all these good things, I was a bit relieved she didn’t pass the vet. I was nervous importing after having been burned so many times buying for potential rather than practiced. And this wouldn’t be my only horse, so a dud wouldn’t have killed me. The trip over is also much more taxing than people realize, particularly for a mare.
I just worry that all the things you’re worried about with American sellers is doubly true in Europe. There is some value to buying a horse from a trainer who has to see you at all the same shows. You can absolutely still get screwed, but you’re much more out of sight out of mind buying from a European seller. I absolutely agree you can find absolute bargains in Europe. But it’s not a given.
One thing you could consider since you are pretty set on importing is working with a really established dealer like Neil Jones, who if the horse isn’t what you thought, will often work out a trade. Now that insurance does not come cheap, but he does know what an amateur horse is, and he is very well connected in Europe. I’m sure there are others people can recommend.
I still think your money is better spent locally given your parameters. But as someone who works in investing, people think they know how they feel about accepting risk until they lose a bunch of money. And by then it’s too late.