Buying an OTTB with only 2 starts? Help interpreting record please

[Libby2563]

I’ve been shopping for an OTTB to retrain for eventing. After putting down my 5-year-old in November due to terminal lameness, soundness is a very high priority. I’ve been looking mostly at horses with a larger number of starts on the theory that they’ve proven they can stay sound in work (and that they have a work ethic).

However, I just saw a really lovely horse with conformation and pedigree that I like a lot, and it’s only raced twice. Both were in the last couple months, at the end of its 3-year-old year. I really like the horse but I’m stressing about why it took so long to race and only ran twice. Seller is an intermediary so I can’t easily ask the trainer. The horse isn’t very tall or immature looking. Its speed figure in the first race was 54 but in the second it was 0. What does a 0 mean!? I need to do more research…

I know there are explanations unrelated to the suitability of the horse, but I am concerned. Any opinions on this? Any suggestions of things I should ask the seller? I know there are no soundness guarantees no matter what but I’d like to try to stack the deck in my favor this time!

[horseshorseshorseshorses]

In all honesty it sounds like this horse was started late (not a bad thing) and showed no talent for racing.

I just picked up a horse who was 4 last month. He raced a total of 14 times, has very few recorded breezes and overall was ran conservatively. A lot of horses at the same age at this track had 25+ races. I was interested in a 5 year old mare who was started multiple times by different trainer’s and it was life situations that caused her to never run. She sold before I got to the track. The horse I almost picked up was 2 and only backed 4 times.

Low mileage isn’t a bad thing. If the horse has a personality that you like AND passes a ppe go for it.

[Libby2563]

Been doing more research…

Horse does have regular timed workouts starting in July of its 3-year-old year (last year), first at one track and then moving to another starting shortly before its two races. According to Equibase, its owner is also its breeder. All of owner/breeder’s horses only have 9 starts total so I’m guessing a hobbyist? Maybe that could explain something. The 2 starts were with a big-name trainer but I don’t know how to tell if the horse was with him for the earlier workouts too. Trainer did work out of both tracks during the relevant timeframes.

Seller’s explanation is that the horse is slow. I watched the Equibase videos of the two races and it did finish dead last in its second race, well behind everyone else. It broke cleanly and looked like it was trying for a short while but then just slowly dropped farther and farther back, poor thing. In the first race it broke cleanly and seemed to try harder for longer, but just ran out of gas and finished 5th in a small field.

Its 4-furlong workouts range from 48 to 51 seconds. 5-furlong workouts range 1:00 to 1:05. Those aren’t super slow, right? All workouts are listed as “breezing.”

I am now starting to think I am reading too much into all this, especially since I don’t really know how to interpret it…but I like the horse enough that if it had 20+ starts (or maybe even 10+ at the point!), I would buy it sight unseen, so I am agonizing.

[JJ_sLuckyTrain]

You are reading too much into this. There are an infinite number of reasons that a horse might have few starts or start late that are totally irrelevant to future soundness or athletic ability.

[Libby2563]

@JJ'sLuckyTrain

You are reading too much into this. There are an infinite number of reasons that a horse might have few starts or start late that are totally irrelevant to future soundness or athletic ability.

LOL yes, I definitely am. :lol: I know there are lots of potential reasons, I was just wondering if I could figure out which one it might be!

[Libby2563]

Well, the horse was posted on Facebook 4 hours ago and is already “pending sale,” so I guess it was a good one. Dammit. I’m too late yet again.

[Sunny74]

You were right to question and you’re not reading too much into it. I bred and raced TBs and you are spot on. Pedigree can tell you a lot about whether the horse was bred to be precocious. Also, if the horse was sold at a 2YO in training sale than they are more apt to try to run it early to get a return on investment. That is late in the season to be starting a 3yo. There could be a lot of innocent reasons why he started late but there are also a lot of problematic reasons as well. Stay cautious in your search. You are correct to always be weary. Vet check, pull blood and scope everything. Good luck in your search.

[gumtree]

IME and I have a lot of it. The majority of people interpret this negatively. For good reasons maybe, for valid reason IME no. The vast majority of people buying horses off the track do not understand all the nuances that PPs and or works may or may not reveal.

I bred TBs personally mainly for the sales. Kept some to race. If they didn’t show me much after going into training at my farm they did not go to the track. I’ve said this many times on this subject. It is a fools game to send a horse to the track if it doesn’t show enough talent to open in MSW or high claiming maiden races. I stop race training turn out then re-school for sport or pleasure. Put more than a fair price on them and hope to sell quickly. Most people were always looking a gift horse in the mouth. Suspicious of why this “nice” horse wasn’t raced.

When I have retired horses after a couple of starts that didn’t show much. And or had finished 3rd-4th in low level claiming I got the same suspicious question. Why would someone retire a horse that finished 3rd. Why, because the horse beat nothing to finish 3rd in a $15,000 maiden. Why would anyone that values their money continue to try and win a race that pays $8-$9,000 to the winner. When it cost $2,500-$3,000 a month to see if the horse MIGHT win a cheap and or cheaper maiden race.

I also didn’t want the horse to get claimed cheap and be run into the ground in cheap claiming races by cheap trainers and owners.

DO NOT look too closely at a horse you like PPs esp if you have little to no expertise in extrapolating the information. Do not rely on others subjective opinion. I have read plenty on this forum and others that just makes me roll my eyes. If you like the horse and not are very experience at “vetting” it yourself, Get someone who its. If it passes a person with a trained eye and hand. Spend the money on vetting.

[DarkBayUnicorn]

Gotta say the absolute best OTTB I’ve ever had didn’t make a start till he was four, and only started four times. He won his first (out of sheer terror) and then figured out running faster didn’t make sense.

Like @gumtree the horse’s connections didn’t want to persecute him in low claimers. Not least because he’s the firstborn son of their flagship stallion. They just don’t run anything that way.

I paid $4,000 for him in 1997. RIGHT? Who pays that much for an OTTB?

Ever thankful I did. He took me to Nationals. We did Indoors. He made me an Eq Champ.

When he was ready to step down, I leased him for three times what I paid. Three times.

​​​​​​​He’s coming 27 next month. He is still sound.

[findeight]

Hire Gumtree as a consultant.

[Jleegriffith]

Exactly what gumtree said…not all trainers feel the need to run them if they aren’t worth running. You are looking at upward of $50 a day to have a horse in a stall at the track so if it isn’t going to be any good then they most simply either don’t run it or stop early. There are a million reasons that horses don’t start until 3yrs as well. I don’t read that much into that. I look at consistency of the race record in general. Are there big gaps? Why? There are some gaps that are normal- tracks close for winter, horse had bucked shins, was gelded, etc but I want to know the reasons. Gaps of more than 3 months do make me question things but not always if I know why from the connections.

I buy over 100+ Tb’s a year so I am really darn good at reading race records but I don’t necessary worry whether a horse is unstarted, has low starts or a lot of starts. I am just trying to buy a sound horse at the end of the day and that can fit within no starts to a horse with 50+ starts.

[Auburn]

A question for knowledgeable track folks: If a horse breaks well, then begins to fade quickly, could it be a heart murmur issue? I purchased an OTTB mare who had a murmur on the right side. Yes. I was an idiot and did not have her vetted. Fortunately, the hole was tiny and not congenital. After diagnostics with a specialist, Rood and Riddle gave her the OK to do low level Eventing.

A Vet from Hagyard, who initially found the murmur, had told me that she would tire quickly. I wish! She never tired out.

However, I was wondering if fading quickly could be a heart related issue, instead of not having the desire to run? Hopefully, my question makes sense?

[Sunny74]

It could be so many things…medical issue; a problem with their wind; a horse that doesn’t want to run; a horse that isn’t fit; a horse that is hot or nervous and runs like a bat out of hell out of the gate because they are freaked out so they use themselves up; a horse that might need blinkers; a horse that might need blinkers removed; a horse that doesn’t like company…so many reasons. You would have to look at many factors to determine the reason for fading. Many racehorses race with heart murmurs so I would not be comfortable saying that was the cause.

[bornfreenowexpensive]

Several of my best horses never raced. Their owners stopped with them when it was apparent they were not going to be competitive enough and didn’t want them running in low level claimers. I’ve had others with huge start numbers and everything in between. I have not found that start numbers (high or low) were ever an indication or anything. I had super sound one (for sport) who had been vanned off of one of his last races. And more than I can count…have hurt them self while turned out in my super safe and lovely fields.

I only buy from people that I know or who know mutual friends. That isn’t a guarantee…but its a hell of a lot safer. The horse world is smaller than you think…you likely have lots of mutual friends who can hook you up with someone reliable. But just remember…horses spend all their time trying to get hurt anyway. There is no guarantee in soundness. So sorry about your young horse…if you have horses…it will happen (but it is always devastating).

And who pays 5K for an OTTB…I do. And so do a lot of people. I get pissed when people think that an OTTB isn’t worth as a much as a WB…that is BS. These horses generally cost 3x as a WB to bring into this world. Just because they are not valuable as a race horse anymore doesn’t mean they don’t have worth. Many are a steal at 5K. Yes…you can find them cheaper out there…like anyone else…but also some of the best ones will not be that cheap even directly from their race connections.

[Jleegriffith]

Auburn- I will say that in about 400+ tb’s that I have sold and have been vetted so far I have found two with a heart murmur and looking at their race record I can’t say you would find a smoking gun. Neither heart mumur was super scary but when you go to get them worked up at a major vet hospital I think they truly can’t give them the stamp for an UL career because something could happen. It’s almost a professional liability However, I know a few people that have horses with murmurs that ran around Rolex so I don’t think it is the kiss of death.