I hope he pulls it off. Watching the Derby, he was pulling away at the end, which made me think he could indeed hit that extra 1/4 mile the Belmont adds. But watching the Preakness…kind of a nail biter. Now I’m not sure.
Highly unlikely to have a rabbit in a race where horses need to be nominated, and the starters have to qualify on earnings for one of the 12 spots. I think it’s going to be a big field this year, and for one of the owners of a closer to come up with a rabbit would be tricky.
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I remember from Jewels of the Triple Crown that Assault’s Preakness was a nail biter, too, much closer than this, barely held on. I believe he wasn’t even favorite at Belmont due to his Preakness. Belmont, different story. Not saying that will necessarily happen with Justify, but not all TC winners have had impressive victories in all three legs.
Well sometimes a really tough race matures and toughens a colt, sometimes it discourages them so who knows what will step on the track in 3 weeks. Nobody does at this point. Can he race well as a stalker, hanging a little bit off the leaders not chasing fast fractions then turn it on? Does he have a finishing kick from further
back? He doesn’t even know these things, he’s never been asked. IMO he’s not going to go in the front wire to wire like he has been to doing, that is where the pedigree might not suit the extra distance against good company on a typically hot day with many distractions.
But…he has MS up and if he can get relaxation and tactical speed out of him, which he’s never been asked to do, who knows?
He’s at a similar point in his career as many before him. We don’t breed for distance over here anymore so it’s hard to find it close up. It’s the only time most of these will ever race 14 furlongs in their lives, there’s very few races any more at that distance so little reason to breed for it. It’s the same stumbling block all the others faced in recent decades. Only the horse has the answer, don’t think he will know until he is asked to try either.
IMO, don’t thnk so. But still recall the common knowledge that “Bold Rulers can’t get the distance”. So have to wait for answers. That’s why they run the race. Hope he gets a little R&R to clear his mind as well as rest his body, come
s back sound and ready to try.
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Here’s that Assault clip I was thinking of. Powerful Derby, eventually powerful Belmont, but no, that Preakness in the middle there wouldn’t have inspired a lick of confidence in this horse for me regarding his ability to stay the Belmont distance.
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Thanks so much for sharing that video!
Hmmm that does give some hope…especially after seeing the still photos of justify jumping the puddles!
He looked pretty exhausted at the end of the Preakness* when they pulled his tack off… I know 3 weeks is a good amount of time to recover, but if it was enough time we probably wouldn’t have waited 37 years to get another triple crown winner. But I’m not the one training him so I have NO idea how he recovers from that race (supreme understatement). It could be he just got a whole lot fitter from that battle and he recovers fine. But the odds mostly favor him being awfully tired at a mile and a half, especially if a genuine distance horse from Europe shows up fresh.
- It’s an unfair comparison, but I had AP’s belmont saved so I looked at how he finished that race… and yeah, he took a long tour in front of the grandstand before heading back to the paddock and getting his tack pulled, but then again he had just finished the Belmont, not the 2nd leg. AP just never looked that tired.
It’s been discussed before, but every winner of the triple crown faced a smallish field in the Belmont, including American Pharoah. Those nail-biting almost-made it races were much larger fields. So I think this is a pretty significant factor in the race.
Will you please link? I googled and could not find them. IIRC, Mike said that he was distracted in the stretch, but he was wearing a shadow roll which prevents them from seeing things like shadows, puddles, tire tracks, etc at their feet.
Anyone seen these photos of Justify in Preakness? Him jumping at something on the track.
"(I was) a little bit concerned going around the first turn. He jumped the tracks right past the wire, where they roll the things out, and when he did, he really got to slipping. After we straightened up down the backside, he got back underneath himself.
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I saw those photos and assumed they were photoshopped. I went back and watched the video and you can clearly see him jump the tracks at about 35 seconds into the video. It’s literally - a jump - past the finish line at the start of the race.
That was really interesting! Thanks for sharing.
He was not. The original heel bruise was in the left hind. In the video he rested the right hind, once, briefly.
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I like him, but after watching the Preakness I don’t have my hopes up. I’m expecting to see a fresher horse close on him in the last 1/4 mile.
Mike Smith commented that he jumped drag marks across the track, and felt a little “slippy” for a few strides after, then hit his rhythm again. He’s flat out running and perceives a difference in the footing, and jumped it.
Having ridden horses that had to learn not to jump the yellow line on the road I can understand.
Great photos BTW,
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Video of Justify doing a pretty neat jump of the tracks:
https://twitter.com/HR_Nation/status/999278929365135360
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Is that why some horses wear the fleece nosebands called ‘shadow rolls’?
Yes, along with just general trainer preference. The intention of a shadow roll is to help a horse focus. It partially limits the horse’s view of the ground directly in front of them to prevent horses from spooking at “shadows” (hence the name). It also encourages them from getting too high-headed, as the shadow roll will block even more of their vision if the nose is above the eye line.
Baffert runs everything in a blue shadow roll. Other trainers never use them. And obviously, the horses can still see plenty, or else we wouldn’t have pictures of Justify jumping over the tire marks on the track!
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