Can Justify win the Triple Crown?

[gumtree]

@vineyridge

Nobody has mentioned that he won the first two in the slop. That seems to me to be something to think about. If working well in the slop is an indicator of stamina, then seems to me that even if the Belmont track is dry, he might just do it. If working in the slop says nothing about stamina, there might be a completely different result on a dry track.

This is not necessarily true. There are a number of different “types” of sloppy, muddy etc. Running through through watery soup is a lot easier than running through a thick split pea soup.

The Derby was one of it not the wettest ever run. It had been raining for days leading up to the Preakness. Something like 4 inches of rain feel around the area over a couple of days. It rained hard all day. I didn’t walk the track but I would bet it was just a watery mix. Not “oatmeal” mud/slop.

Bravazo blew by Justify just after the finish line and galloped out strong. Justify pulled up quickly. If it had been the Derby distance Bravazo would have one by a length.

[gumtree]

@Palm Beach

Will you please link? I googled and could not find them. IIRC, Mike said that he was distracted in the stretch, but he was wearing a shadow roll which prevents them from seeing things like shadows, puddles, tire tracks, etc at their feet.

I don’t think agree with this entirely. A Shadow roll is used to get/help a horse to drop its head. If it has the desired effect they can see things directly in front of them even better. Much better than running with their head held “high”.

[Frosty_M]

I think the fact that Justify lost his footing for a few strides after jumping the track means he’s even more likely to win the Belmont, IF Baffert can train him not to jump the tracks or find some sort of gadget he could wear that will eliminate the possibility. How likely is that?

[Palm_Beach]

@Frosty M

I think the fact that Justify lost his footing for a few strides after jumping the track means he’s even more likely to win the Belmont, IF Baffert can train him not to jump the tracks or find some sort of gadget he could wear that will eliminate the possibility. How likely is that?

He jumped the tracks in the first quarter mile, I don’t think it had much of an effect on the outcome of the race. The tracks were right after the finish line, so by the time he came around again, he had already won the race.

Most crews rake up the tire tracks from the gate, but the tracks Justify jumped were from the track crossing put up between racing for people to walk from the clubhouse to the infield, plus it was muddy, so no one raked them up.

[Laurierace]

Actually I watched them rake the marks from the tram, he jumped the rake marks.

[Frosty_M]

@Laurierace

Actually I watched them rake the marks from the tram, he jumped the rake marks.

LOL! That just makes me like him more. He’s super alert and a real athlete. Come on and win the Belmont, Justify!

[Mara]

@Palm Beach

He jumped the tracks in the first quarter mile, I don’t think it had much of an effect on the outcome of the race. The tracks were right after the finish line, so by the time he came around again, he had already won the race.

Most crews rake up the tire tracks from the gate, but the tracks Justify jumped were from the track crossing put up between racing for people to walk from the clubhouse to the infield, plus it was muddy, so no one raked them up.

I remember the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint and the favorite Dayjur jumping the finish line shadow just a few strides before the wire itself. It was enough to allow the filly Safely Kept to catch him for the win.

[Palm_Beach]

@Mara

I remember the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint and the favorite Dayjur jumping the finish line shadow just a few strides before the wire itself. It was enough to allow the filly Safely Kept to catch him for the win.

Aw, I love her!

[Lord_Helpus]

@Mara

I remember the 1990 Breeders Cup Sprint and the favorite Dayjur jumping the finish line shadow just a few strides before the wire itself. It was enough to allow the filly Safely Kept to catch him for the win.

And someone named a colt by Dayjur “Jump The Shadow”