Commercial vs. not so commercial stallions

[SnicklefritzG]

Some stallions are known for producing offspring who do well at the sales, either as weanlings or yearlings. Then there are others who are not as “commercial” as I’ve heard industry insiders describe certain stallions.

One question I have is how it could be that a stallion doesn’t take off if it hasn’t had offspring hit the track yet? There is one stallion I was talking with someone about and their comment was he hasn’t “taken off” like people have expected him to but how could that be if the offspring haven’t hit the track yet and won’t until next year or the year after?

That begs the question, what would make a stallion “take off” if the offspring haven’t hit the track? I’m not referring to superstars like American Pharoah, but more the type that earned $1M or so on the track, had some good graded stakes wins, but aren’t spectacular.

[Texarkana]

I think the words “commercial” and “non-commercial” get misinterpreted.

It’s hard to sum up the breeding and racing industry in a few words on the internet; and attempts to do so often generate more misconceptions.

But to try to answer your questions while not generating more misconceptions, I’m going to back up for a moment and point out that the sales market drives most breeders’ mating decisions. This is because it is EXPENSIVE to breed; and it costs just as much to breed & feed a “cheap” horse as it does a blue-blooded one. Then you have to consider the cost of the mares themselves, stud fees, sales consignment, etc. A breeder who can’t sell their horses at a profit is going to find themselves bankrupt in a hurry.

In general, the buyers in the North American market want precocious dirt horses because that’s where the money is in racing. They want flawless horses who tick all the boxes, and when they find that, they are willing to spend a considerable amount. But buying racehorses is a risky business, and when a horse offered for sale doesn’t tick all the boxes, the buyer is increasing their risk. So buyers shirk from risky horses and gravitate towards those who are the whole package. Wouldn’t you do the same if you were spending that much money?

To attempt to answer your original question:

If a young sire’s first crop of yearlings hit the sales and they aren’t ticking all the boxes, buyers are going to respond in a lukewarm fashion. It may because the get are smallish, awkward looking, poor moving, have vet/conformation issues, or even just a subpar first book of mares (which isn’t the stallion’s fault at all). But whatever the reason, poor sales figures from a stallion’s first crops will cause a portion of mare owners to shy away from the stallion to avoid the risk of financial loss. Plus, every year a stallion stands, he is facing new competition from the next group of first year sires, who draw more mare owners away.

If this happens to a stallion, sometimes they are redeemed when their get start running and prove valuable. Other times, foreign interests realize the potential and are willing to pay more money for the horse than he would earn staying in North America. Or, the stallion stays in North America and drops in class until he finds a niche market (like a regional program), or another job entirely.

Other stallions “take off” right away because their first crops consistently tick all the boxes and appear to be the whole package. And buyers and breeders alike get excited (often more excited than they should) thinking they are getting a piece of the “next big thing.” Sometimes it works out and the stallion really is the next big thing, other times they fade into obscurity when everyone realizes the foals were awfully good looking but can’t run a lick.

[LaurieB]

A stallion’s first offspring are scrutinized pretty heavily. When the first weanlings show up at a sale, buyers (end users), pinhookers, and potential breeders all form a first impression of what the stallion can do based on what they see in front of them–a very limited sample at a very young age. That first impression drives prices (up or down) and has a huge effect on the horse’s subsequent popularity.

In recent years two stallions, The Factor and Cairo Prince, both had their stud fees raised substantially based on the quality of their weanlings and yearlings–before any of their offspring were even old enough to race.

And it happens quite often that a stallion whose offspring are the initial sales darlings, takes a huge tumble when the time comes for those horses to run. When it comes to assessing yearlings, everybody–even those who call themselves experts–are looking into a crystal ball. Into Mischief’s and Candy Ride’s offspring, for example, debuted to no fanfare at all.

[Palm_Beach]

When a stallion can cover 200 mares a year, there will always be too many stallions and not enough mares. There is enough wheeling and dealing going on that the best mares will always go to the best stallions, regardless of stud fee.

And buyers also take into account how well the relations of a stallion do, so if horses that are bred similarly are doing really good and the youngsters look good, people will roll the dice.

[SnicklefritzG]

Thanks everyone for the detailed responses! This topic makes a lot more sense now.

From what people said it seems entirely possible that the offspring of a particular stallion could have good conformation and size, but could be snubbed by buyers for reasons that have nothing to do with them specifically?

[Where_sMyWhite]

@SnicklefritzG

Thanks everyone for the detailed responses! This topic makes a lot more sense now.

From what people said it seems entirely possible that the offspring of a particular stallion could have good conformation and size, but could be snubbed by buyers for reasons that have nothing to do with them specifically?

IMO, absolutely. The nicest conformed individual may be ‘snubbed’ for reasons that have nothing to do with his looks.

As you well might also know, conformation doesn’t mean performance on the track. Some of the stallions that threw excellent track performance themselves may not have had the best conformation.

Doesn’t mean the offspring won’t find buyers but might be hard.

[LaurieB]

@SnicklefritzG

Thanks everyone for the detailed responses! This topic makes a lot more sense now.

From what people said it seems entirely possible that the offspring of a particular stallion could have good conformation and size, but could be snubbed by buyers for reasons that have nothing to do with them specifically?

Yes, absolutely.

The stallion could be standing in the wrong state, or in the right state (KY) but the wrong farm. It could have an unfashionable pedigree. It could have so many offspring offered initially that even though it’s inevitable that there are bad ones mixed in with the good, people find themselves remembering the poor ones rather than the better ones.

The weanlings might have good conformation but look unathletic. They might be big, but clunky. They might not look precocious (what every pinhooker wants–and at the moment, the pinhookers are driving the marketplace).

Fwiw, it’s not all about conformation or size. The popular weanlings have a certain swagger, a way of walking and presenting themselves that says “look at me, I’m important”. They look like athletes first and foremost, and they also bring to the sale the kind of willing, can-do attitude that a racehorse will need to succeed.