Uncle Mo was retired at the end of his 3-year-old campaign because of some ongoing problems from the liver ailment (cholangiohepatitis) that caused him to miss the Triple Crown races. He didn’t have any soundness problems and certainly did not “break down”.
The rest of your post has been more than adequately addressed by others.
It comes down to how one extrapolates the data. Just as if not more importantly one’s understand of the big picture.
IMO one could make a reasonable argument that Twirling Candy is better “value” than U-M when it comes to stud fees and general results on the racetrack. Both when to stud at the same time, first foals 2013. At this time based on the TDNs sire list http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…CropYear=1#tot
U-M was given considerable more opportunity than Twirling Candy in the breeding shed. With a difference in stud fee of only $10,000, Twirling Candy went to stud with a fee of $15,000, Uncle Mo $25,000
U-M has 330 named foals and 131 starters. Twirling Candy only has 181 named foals and 81 starters. Uncle Mo is ranked 14th right now and Twirling Candy 22nd.
U-M highest earner has won a bump over $500,000, Twirling Candy $266,000 so IMO in the grand scheme of things a $250,000 spread does’t make for an “anomaly”. As is the case with Lucky Pulpit and C-Chrome, or going back to one of the original “anomaly”, Ole Bob Bowers sire of John Henry.
Uncle Mo has total progeny earnings to date of $3,661,208, Twirling Candy $2,188,456, a spread of $1,472,752.
But U-M has 50 more starters than Twirling Candy. Both have the same basically the same average earnings per starter, $27,948, 27,018. Considering that Twirling Candy has 3 more “winners” 46 verses UM with 43 and has 50 less starters IMO the spread in total earnings is understandable on face value.
The major difference between the two at this time is the percentage of Black Type Horses (BTH) to starters, Uncle Mo just shy of 10%, Twirling Candy 8.64%. 1+% is a fair bit above in the grand scheme of things. But one has to keep in mind that Uncle Mo has 45% more “named foals” on the ground than Twirling Candy and has 50 more starters about 39%. I might be losing some with all the numbers. I’m getting a bit lost also.
The bottom line based on face value, just using “simple stats” Uncle Mo “appears” to have higher class runners.
Appears that way when looking at “recent winners” no “claimers”
http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-r…19257/uncle-mo
Twirling Candy
http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-r…twirling-candy
Again, these are “simple stats” face value stats. IMO a whole heck of lot more research into PPS of both horses’s runners would need to be done to make a solid argument.
One things for sure the buyers of yearlings hold UM in much higher regard based on yearling 2016 yearling averages.
Uncle Mo, 84 averaging a bump over $200,000
Twirling Candy 29, (66% less) $54,000
Twirling Candy’s 2 year olds sold at auction got a lot more respect in the ring than his yearlings, 11 averaging just shy of $200,000, UM 32 averaging $261.000.
Like most things horse Uncle Mo had more “buzz” about him than Twirling Candy when they went to stud. He also had the “power” of Coolmore/Ashford behind him than Twirling Candy who stands at Lanes End. Not that Lanes End doesn’t carry a fair bit of respect. They don’t have the deep pockets that Coolmore has. Their philosophy of stallion management is different also. Coolmore’s business plan is about the numbers, mare numbers. Come one come all. They also control or have access to a sizable broodmare band to work with.
So bottom line based on “face value” stats. A reasonable argument can be made that the progeny of Twirling Candy at this time is running just behind UM. With his 2016 yearling average being 75% less certainly looks to be better value for money and risk.Was much better value yearling to 2 year old pinhooking in hindsight.
Might prove to be VERY good value to have bred to him this year at $20,000. Which was only a $5,000 bump over his opening stud fee. Verses UM at $150,000 (up from $75,000) who started at $25,000.
A stallions progeny earnings has been used for years for ranking. But it is a face value number and easily obscured by one horse and or a few horses.
Bill Oppenheim a respected international statistician that I have known for years came up a “formula” to rank stallions by the “racing class” of their progeny, A-B-C runners and calls it APEX ratings. This link explains it;
http://www.billoppenheim.com/apexratings.html
It comes out twice a year, mid-season and year end final. This is a link to the 2016 final list of N-A based stallions.
http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com…American=1#tot
My comments are just a quick over view of “things” don’t base your yearling purchases on it. Lol
My post wasn’t intended to be a slam against Twirling Candy. I happen to love Twirling Candy. I have a nice mare in foal to him. But that doesn’t change the facts.
If you re-read my post, you will see that I did not say anything about his offspring’s races being “barely a stakes race”. I said that they barely qualified for blacktype. There are set standards for that and the minimum purse for a BT stakes race is $50,000 US.
My analysis was simply factual. All the info I used is easily available. I can’t make things up to make Twirling Candy’s current 2017 record sound more acceptable to you. It is what it is. I’m glad you like your horse. If I owned him, I would too.
You are correct. Anybody can enter just about any horse in an unrestricted stakes race, non invitational. If the race is over subscribed, preferences maybe given or you end up on the AE (also eligible). Racetracks love long shots so they don’t generally restrict who runs in stakes races. There are always a fair bit of money bet on “hopeless horses”.
Fillies/mares have a bit of an advantage because there are a multitude of stakes races restricted to filly/mares only. There are no stakes races that I know of restricted to colts/gelding only. Not too long ago geldings couldn’t run in the top European Stakes races for the “betterment” of the breed/breeding.
I have owned a “leg” of a couple of decent graded stakes horses. Have paid the fees to run in some top graded stakes. Which were as much as $15,000++. Of course we ran to win but in the end we always hoped/wanted to place high enough to get the “fees” back. When it become apparent coming down the stretch we weren’t going to win it was just as stressful hoping we ended up better than 4th or 5th. Which generally paid a bit more than fees and the other stake race expense. Top jocks can and do command an “appearance fee”. A lot more than “also ran” payment.
Ran a horse in the Man O War Stake (G1) full field. They were all bunched up when crossing the wire. I knew we didn’t win but wasn’t sure where we placed. Finished 6th beaten less than 4 lengths for all the money. Fork! Ran in the Pan American the same thing happened. Finished 7th beaten a few lengths for all the money. Didn’t get our entry fees back in either.
Conquest Mo Money had a history of bad leg problems before his current owners purchased him at the bargain basement price. Casse made the information public in a blood horse interview. He was known to have shin problems and not stay sound (which is why he sold for nothing at the sales and Casse didn’t buy him to keep him in his barn)
I feel sad for the horse but the owners easily made their money back on their purchase. I just do not see him staying sound (long term) if he ever comes back and I see this horse retiring with a lot of leg jewelry when the time comes. Maybe sound for a second career but not sound enough to keep pounding away on the track everyday.
The sad part is he will retire to stud at some point and his unsoundness will go on.
Hey I like gumtree as much as I like glimmerglass and dickhertz. Nice insight.
I’m still bummed about Dark Star beating my favorite horse when I was a small child.
Look up Mo Money’s pedigree and he has 3x Northern Dancer within the first 5 generations and his 4th generations (dam side) is 2x buckpasser. I know the subject has been beaten 10x over but there is correlation to unsoundness with inbreeding of Northern Dancer and the TB breed has A LOT of it.
His dam also produced KY Derby Runner, Nowhere to Hide (By Vindication) and she herself is unraced.
Nowhere to Hide fell through the cracks. His last race was a claiming in 2013 at Prairie Meadows where he was third. Last owned by William D McCarthy and trained by Chris Richard. He was a hard knocking horse who ran almost monthly his entire career. He ended up at the Secretariat Center. He was claimed from his original owners who then claimed him back and retired him.
** On a side note HE DID suffer a tibia fracture in 2010 and when Secretariat Center got ahold of him; he was very unsound, stiff, large ankles.
Mo Money also has a brother standing at a Quarter Horse Farm in Alberta. His name is Mink and he is by Pulpit. His career earnings were only 23k and only made 4 starts, in his four starts he was 10, 3, 2, 2 under John Sherrifs which means he likely retired due to injury. Mank also had 2x BUckpasser and 2x Mr Prospector within first 3 generations
Mo Money has another brother by Arch, named Arch Rivalry, who is currently running in the claiming ranks at Arlington, That horse has 2x Nashua, 3x Northern Dancer, 2x BUckpasser, and 2x Raise a Native in the first 5 generations of his pedigree. He was off for about 6 months between his first and 2nd start (he finished 10th) and then he had about 3 months off last year.
I don’t know If the unsoundness is hereditary in this line but perhaps his dam, who was unraced, might be a contributing factor to unsoundness within the family, sadly.
if there is one Uncle Mo son I like and want to see more of, Its Mo Don’t No, who’s been pounding away with a stellar track record. 9 wins, 3 place, 0 show, 2 off the board. 15 starts total. In his 2 starts in 2017 he was 2nd in his first race and recently won his 2nd race.
Do you have a source on this? I ask because North America probably has some of the lower end amounts of Northern Dancer inbreeding out of countries with well developed thoroughbred industries. I mean, have you seen the pedigree of current leading Australian sire Snitzel?
Inbreeding and line breeding are as old as selective breeding itself.
yes, it is a very old concept its considered line breeding when it works and inbreeding when it doesn’t. The problem with the TB industry is they measure success by races won and quality of races won. They do not consider soundness and longevity in a career as a measure of a successful mating. The current industry is somewhat to blame due to lucrative stud deals forcing horses to retire at 3. But if you look at Mo Money’s siblings, they too have a history of unsoundness issues.
Uncle Mo has 3 doses of Northern Dancer within his first 5 generations. Stirring (Mo Moneys dam) is inbred to Northern Dancer in her 4th generation. So that is 5 doses of Northern Dancer in a 5 generation pedigree of the resulting offspring.
Snitzel’s pedigree has 4 doses of Northern Dancer in 5 gens, 3 doses of Dancer’s dam Natalma and 2 doses of Lunch Time. Yes, a lot of inbreeding but at what cost?
Northern Dancer is a prolific sire; perhaps the most influential TB sire in recent times. But when you continue to inbreed to a certain line; you are losing the hybrid vigor within the pedigree and doubling up on potential issues that many didn’t see in the original offspring or didn’t care to see.
Look at Big Brown. The horse had horrific foot problems which plagued his career and ultimately likely shortened his career. His sire is by a son of Northern Dancer and so is his dam. He also has 2 doses of Damascus up close and 2 doses of Round Table a little farther back
You cannot continue to double up on specific lines and not think that something negative will eventually come of it. The problem is the Northern Dancer lines are very successful racehorse, they win graded stakes and they have been to the elite of the sport. But no one seems to care when such horses only ran 4 to 6 times and couldn’t stay sound…the resulting stallions or broodmares got lucrative breeding deals and off they are to carry on more unsoundness
I Don’t think the soundness issues are so much Northern Dancer’s fault but the sire the appears behind Northern Dancer, Native Dancer. or even if we go farther back; the sire Phalaris who is in virtually every TB pedigree to date
back in the day; TB’s were bred from a multi attribute perspective: Speed, Soundness, Stamina, Conformation. Commercialization of the industry with inflated auction prices; under tack shows, lucrative breeding deals dissolved that breeding philosophy. Rather than breeding for the durable horse; they started breeding for speed (which is how under tack auctions evolved and how the TB lost its ability to run distance.
Here is a quote about Northern Dancer’s lackluster soundness which short lived his racing career:
“By the time Native Dancer had reached age 4, when he started only three times through August, he had gotten so sore due to a chronic inflammation in his ankles – he reportedly had developed osselets, bony growths along his ankle joints – that his owner and breeder, Alfred G. Vanderbilt, was forced to retire him to Sagamore, Vanderbilt’s Maryland farm.”
While Native Dancer suffered from poor ankles, what ultimately ruined his career was his poor feet. Tender feet that resulted in frequent bruising. He only raced 22 times in an era where it was more common for horses to run 40+
Mr Prospector was another Native Dancer son who was horribly unsound but prolific in making speedy, stakes winning horses. We see a lot of TB’s inbred to him also.
Native Dancer is said to be found in approximately 75% If the North American thoroughbreds and that number is increasing with each generation.
Raise a Native, son of Native Dancer, was a prolic sire but after only 4 starts; he bowed a tendon and its said he bowed because of his running motion combined with tendons being tied into his leg oddly.
Lets Look at Eight Belles for a moment. 2x inbred to Mr. Prospector, 3x to Raise a Native, 3x to Native Dancer. Her dam was by Dixieland Band who was a Northern Dancer son.
The unsoundness of Native Dancer has been well-covered in many top publications and it only takes a google search to find out the deets on the offspring from this line and the unsoundness they face.
But if anyone out there has a horse with no ND in the pedigree; you have yourself a real gem
Just quoting this small section because while I agree with you to some degree, I also think you are taking a myopic view of the situation at hand.
It’s not as simple as blaming Northern Dancer. Or blaming today’s market. Or counting the crosses in a pedigree to predict soundness. If it were, we’d be breeding invincible horses by now.
The thoroughbred breed has been highly inbred since the beginning of time. So to start blaming Northern Dancer is a little ridiculous. I mean, look at the pedigree of GB and US foundation stallion, Glencoe.
Specifically regarding Northern Dancer, as I already said, we utilize Northern Dancer far less than many other countries in the world. No one on this bulletin board points fingers at the Irish, Brits, or Aussies for breeding unsound horses when their horses’ papers look like this actual pedigree from a winner today at Gowran Park in Ireland.
I have spent a good portion of my life directly responsible for caring for injuries in performance horses, from the cheapest of claimers to elite G1 winners, as well as jumpers, eventers, dressage horses, barrel racers, and everything in between. Armchair critics of the breed miss several key points when attempting to point out unsoundness in race horses.
One major point critics omit is that high performing athletes are prone to injuries period. There is no such thing as an athlete immune to the risk of injury. It’s not true for human athletes and it’s not true for horses. To try to blame an injury on pedigree alone is missing the forest for the trees. There are so many things that cause injury apart from just genetics. Yes, I think the thoroughbred industry on the whole relies too much on veterinary support, but I also know you can’t just look at a horse on paper to attempt to assess its soundness. There are too many other factors at play, with the chief factor being participation in a high risk sport.
Along those same lines, the other major point that is frequently “forgotten” is that length of career is not an automatic representation of soundness. So many of these fancy colts who retired early due to “injury” would have been rested and returned to racing if they weren’t such valuable, well bred, graded stakes winners. But because of their value at that moment in time, it would be ludicrous to absorb the risk of returning them to the track when they have a cushy career awaiting them in the breeding shed. Even when horses aren’t high class runners, there are other reasons horses don’t return to running after a non-career ending injury. For example, on multiple occasions, I have been stuck with perfectly sound cheap claimers who were abandoned on the farm after 30 days off because the connections just ran out of money.
I’m not trying to bury my head in the sand and say everything is just peachy with the thoroughbred breed; it’s not. But it is my strong opinion that the majority of criticisms of the breed that come from the sport horse world arise from a place of ignorance.
Texarkana, I wish I could Like your post numerous times.
i think part of the difference between Aussie/Europe racing is their racing is based on grass vs US where we majority race on dirt. Horses last much longer over there and race much longer and their entire management style of their yards is vastly different than how racing horses are managed here. For the better? I don’t know. I cant answer that.
I am not from the sport horse world either and do understand the money involved with such injuries. The lucrative breeding deals are one of the main reason these horses never return and I get it. But at what expense is it hurting the breed? Have we lost the quality of bone and the stamina in the breed due to this.
You are right that a lot of injuries cannot be prevented and its the result of an elite athlete but I find zero excuse in horses with foot problems. not so much bowed tendons, ankles, but legitimate hoof problems. Native Dancer suffered badly with such. Does anyone remember Big Browns feet during the triple crown? His feet were literally falling apart they were glued together. How can anyone stomach breeding to that??? Cut him and make a nice sport horse out of him but the TB breed doesn’t need anymore poor feet.
While I feel sorry that clients dumped their claimers on you because they cant afford to race their horse anymore; this isn’t exactly where my post was going or intended to go. I am not insinuating that we run horses into the ground, until their legs cant move anymore either. But I do feel strongly, very strongly that the TB breed has lost most of its stamina and durability
You’ll find many who agree with you.
Personally, I don’t agree on the stamina part-- I watch what our bloodlines do in other parts of the world and think any perceived loss of stamina is a product of nurture, not nature. For example, as I’m typing this, this fellow just won a 2 1/2 mile steeplechase in England. Cover up the first generation of his page and few would take him to be a British-born chaser.
Many will agree with you that TBs are not as durable as they may have once been. I think durability is a hard to prove definitively. The game has changed considerably since its inception (pari-mutual wagering, simulcasting, slot money, advances in pharmacology, advances in drug testing, changes in public perception, tax laws, the economy, etc.). Numbers/data only tell part of the story. But I strongly believe that any “weakening” of the breed is a product of d) all of the above. There is no one thing you can point to; not inbreeding, not Native Dancer’s ankles, not Big Brown’s feet… racing and breeding are highly complex. If any one thing could guarantee success, believe me, we would have found it by now.
Texarkana, I would also, in my “amateur” opinion agree that there are many things that have fed into the TB “durability” and not just bloodlines (although hard to deny that for many, it is the paper behind the horse that gets the $$ both on the track and in the sales ring and breeding shed (most of the time))
However, I thought timely the article in the BH about Twilight Eclipse, an 8 year old Grade 1 multi-millionaire gelding, is being retired from racing and pointed to a new career in eventing. He hit the board in 19 graded stakes races. I think we would agree that this is a great example of durability.
@Texarkana post 32 well done.
The “genetic unsoundness” argument is unsubstantiated, especially the comments about the foot. Most injuries happen at speed, and the faster the horse is, the higher the risk.
Twilight Eclipse’s durability may be attributed in large part to his grandsire Dynaformer, an iron horse. And I bet Halo on the dam side brought some real toughness into the mix, too.
I will step in (cautiously) here because I have worked at the track and with sport horses and I will tell you that the poor feet are not in fact always ‘poor feet.’ They are in fact poorly educated farriers working with poorly educated horsemen many times. There are many subpar farriers on tracks across America. And as anyone who has worked through “high - low” front feet knows it takes a whole lot of forking time to rebalance a horse’s feet.
You ask why horses hold up better in Europe with ND breeding??? You have a culture and society there that respects horses and horsemanship and ranks it infinitesimally higher than it could ever be in the US. If you had a horse shod with the kind of incorrect sized shoes and horrible shaping and nails that I have seen, even in graded stakes, the blacksmiths of the UK for sure would rip the shank out of your hand, haul the horse away. Give it 6 months barefoot and trimming to fix the balance, and come back in 9 months to kick your ass in the level race above where you were competing it. Simple… the Euros don’t mind the time investment like the American based middle trainers or owners.
I’m not saying all Americans suck with feet but MANY do. Many just can’t afford to stop and help their feet. They seem unable to grasp that without a working and comfortable hoof, the rest doesn’t matter.
Emily
And speaking of bad feet… Classic Empire out of the Belmont with a reoccurrence of the abscess in the RF that plagued him after the Holy Bull Stakes.
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