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This is a question for your vet, who has (hopefully) seen your mare IRL.
From your post it sounds like mare is recovering from injury. Also a call your vet should make re: approaching Winter.
What forage does she get besides the alfalfa pellets?
Digesting hay generates more heat than other feed, so don’t count on Winter grazing to be enough.
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Pictures ? What is her pasture like?
If she’s any heavier than a high BCS 6, maybe low 7, she needs to lose weight for her health
The Henneke Body Condition Scoring System - Habitat For Horses
A jiggly mid-section sounds pretty fat
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Horses are supposed to be chubby at this time of year. That said, you may not want her to gain any extra right now.
I put a weight tape on my horse every Sunday to track his weight. Not the number itself (though I do know his ideal weight on that tape) but if it’s changed, and whether it’s going up or down. I see 10-15lbs on the tape much easier than by looking/feeling. Especially with the winter coat fluffing or not.
He is about 12lbs heavier than his ideal 1132lbs, but I’m not changing his feed yet because I am starting to increase his tack walking again. We’re going into winter cold weather, and he tends to have trouble gaining weight - he can lose those pounds, and I’ll be able to increase his feed and put on a warmer blanket before he gets below his ideal weight.
Use the same tape, and do the measurement yourself so you know it’s done the same way every time. I will redo the measurement two or three times minimum just to be sure I’ve got it right.
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It sounds like she needs to lose weight for her health. Jiggly is bad, along with heavy breathing after minimal movement. Like 2DogsFarm, it sounds like she is recovering from something? And seconding her on hay. Feeding forage will create heat inside her. More than feeding grains and supplements. Depending on your hay quality, she might need more or less of the non-alfalfa forages, so her nutrients are more balanced.
The weight tape tracking RedHorses covered is an excellent method to keep control of weight changes. No fooling the eyes with a tape! Weekly is good, not too far apart to quckly catch changes. We advise clients to hang the paper on stall door, easier to track right in front of you.
While it is winter, going to be colder than now, she still needs to be losing weight now, to be more prepared for use come spring. With daily checking, you could add a blanket when temps are expected to drop very low. Blankets help reserve calories, so she can manage well on her smaller portions. We offer more hay as temps drop, which horses use to keep warm.
Our older horse is blanketed with various thickness covers depending on the weather… He may not be covered if temps are high, like now in the 40Fs. He has a good hair coat, but is 28yrs, so a “windbreaker” can help with the strong winds we get. He doesn’t need to work so hard to utilize his calories in the cold…
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Sounds like she could loose a few, but winter might help with that. I have a senior super easy keeper in a cold climate and I like him to bring a bit of weight into the winter because he has always lost it by the spring. I suggest working with a nutritionist to determine the best feed plan for her. I’ve always felt that the typical lower maintenance horse should not be fed any alfalfa, so that’s the first cutback I’d look to make in her diet.
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With temps that get that cold, I’d just make sure she’s got plenty of hay to keep her internal heater burning. It sounds like she’s getting rehabilitated for an injury? I’d think the alfalfa is a smart thing to let go of. And remember, she might look “fat” in her middle because of the hay and the fact that she’s not in work and using the muscles that keep her more streamlined there, but that’s to be expected.
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No, they aren’t 
This is a fallacy brought on by the “but wild horses do it” crowd. Wild horses (and many other wild animals) DO bulk up as a survival mechanism to get through the Winter when food is more scarce. A domestic horse does not need that. Yes it may be fine for a harder keeper to be allowed to become a BCS 6 (but not 7!) in order to get through Winter without coming into Spring at a BCS 4. But that’s not most horses.
Nah, if she’s really jiggling in the middle, that’s just fat. A BCS 5/6 horse in no work doesn’t jiggle in the middle and that that out of breath like described
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Here in the land of real winters most horses living outside and kept in work benefit from being a bit heavier at this time of year. Not obese, but with a little extra weight. Few of them that aren’t having metabolic issues are overweight in the spring.
My point was that (assuming real, cold winters - which perhaps I shouldn’t have done) this isn’t the time to put the horse on a must lose weight diet. Without careful monitoring, the lose weight diet combined with the increase in exercise demands (did the op include that info in this thread?) can push the horse below optimal weight very quickly. This, of course, results in extra calorie requirements to keep warm, and even more calories to return to optimal weight.
@paintedpennypony The breathing increase would have me looking for my stethoscope to listen to the lungs before assuming it was due to overweight/unfit exercise. Much of the advice here depends on your specific situation - how fat your horse actually is, your climate, etc.
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Sorry, I thought it was you getting a vet check soon and hoping to get clearance to tack walk. 
Walking in snow is a great way to increase demand without adding speed or concussion or time. Walking over poles is helpful as well.
I do highly recommend doing the weekly weight tape thing, even if you don’t know what her ideal weight on that tape is yet.
And I have a horse with heaves, which makes me extra cautious about breathing issues. Breathing faster/deeper is one thing, but when it becomes audible it’s not a bad idea to have a listen to the lungs. One bad bale, or even a small section of a bale can cause issues.
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Honestly, until this fall I’ve been using a $20 stethoscope from Greenhawk that I bought over 30 years ago when I got my first horse. I’ve been using it daily/multiple times a day in the summer for the last 5-6years and it was fine until recently. I bought it as something one should have in the horse first aid kit and almost never used it until the heaves started.
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Even adding the rider/tack weight increases demand.
If she’s nowhere near even a 6, then she’s not overweight
That depends on the horse in their climate. Most horses, who are eating enough hay, and who have protection from cold wet and cold wind, do just fine even in very low actual temps. BCS 6 is fine. 7 is not, not unless it’s going to get down to a 6 fairly quickly. There are plenty of horses in CN and AK who aren’t FAT, who grow an incredibly dense coat, and aren’t blanketed at all. But they’re not a low 5 anyway, at least not typically.
A little extra weight isn’t fat though. It’s not chubby. BCS6 isn’t chubby, at least in the low to middle range. And they aren’t supposed to be chubby. There is no benefit to being heavier if they’re in work. Added weight on their joints isn’t healthy, no matter the time of year.
It is if they’re heavy enough. It’s a time to use blankets very sparingly, to let the cold help get some weight off (never to the point of shivering though). An horse who is BCS 7 or higher should be in a program to get the weigh down to a BCS 6, no matter the time of year. Would I push a BCS 6 hard keeper to lose weight this time of year in a frigid climate? No. I actually do allow my TB mare to get to a 6-ish by the Fall so that she doesn’t come out of Winter thin, but I’d never allow her to get to a 7
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That first year with the first horse is a big learning curve! Enjoy it, though. Learn about the things your horse prompts you to learn. Everyone’s journey is different, and we can’t know everything so we learn most about those things that affect our own horses. We learn a bit less about the things affecting our friends’ horses, and less about others things we see in magazines or online.
More horses, more time with horses, more things we know about. They’re a never ending source of interest. 
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You’re obviously using a different definition of chubby. That’s okay, as we seem to be in agreement otherwise! 
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Yes, obviously I am, and obviously the OP is as well. Jiggling in the midsection is too fat. “not even close to a BCS 6” does not jive with jiggling like that, or being chunky or chubby, as anything less than 6 is not carrying excess weight.
That’s why it’s SO IMPORTANT to learn and use the BSC system. It removes subjective terms and interpretations.
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My Old Man will look jiggly. In reality, it’s his yak coat waving like a wheat field.
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Hence why I asked for a photo (: Makes the discussion so much more meaningful when everyone can “see” what someone means.
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Decades ago I learned from Mary Jean Vassilov’s book “Alone With Your Horse” how she checked her Morgans (quite feed efficient horses) were getting too fat.
The crest of the neck gains and loses weight along with the rest of the horse usually. I always checked the crests of my horses to tell if I needed to feed more or less. If I can sink my fingers into the horse’s crest he may need more food. If the crest of the neck is ROCK HARD then you have a real problem, like possible founder at any time.
It is just something I do when I handle a horse. This method is excellent in the depths of cold weather since my fingers are not fooled like my eyes are by the hair fluffing up in the cold.
I know that I saved one broodmare from founder one year, she was not a friendly mare but for once I could get close enough to feel her crest–rock hard, and I told her owner that she needed to lose some weight right away.
She got taken off the pasture, put into the diet club paddock, and gradually lost her extra weight, she was fed grass hay (here it was fescue) and maybe a handful of sweet feed while in the diet club.
Spring grass time is a true danger point, the winter coat is still hiding everything under it and spring grass can be like rocket fuel and the horses can swell up rapidly.
If the horse’s crest is HARD the horse is TOO FAT!!!
