Thanks
Yes, building muscles around the wither can raise the saddle up enough to need a longer girth if you are using the lower holes with the one you have. So can lush spring grass 
Don’t worry about what the horse should need. Saddle makes such a difference. We have one horse that goes in a 26" with the kid’s saddle and a 22" with mine. I also had to order a 20" pony girth for a 15.3h horse once.
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For sure. Just adding a half pad makes a difference in girthing. FWIW, my 16.3 hand 4 year old and 15.2+ish 7 year old fit the same girth on the same holes.
Also, the saddle makes a difference. I use a 30" with my Black Country monoflap, but could use a shorter girth with my Kent and Masters dressage saddle.
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I just do not know if an anatomic girth is supposed to fit the same way if it is two inches shorter.
be sure the “elbow clearance” curve is in the right place… I have been told that in anatomic girths you should go for the longest you can, but again, the elbow curve needs to be in the right place…
