Did Jose Lezcano ruin AP's chances?

[The_Blood_Bay_Mare]

It seemed to me that Lezcano rode Frosted extremely aggressively in the Travers, much more so than Rosario ever did. Seemed like a pretty suicidal move, and I can hardly believe that he expected to win pushing Frosted that hard that early.

Honestly it almost looked like he wanted Pharoah to lose more than he wanted Frosted to win.

I know Pharoah was tired, it was obvious. On any other day he could have turned on the rockets and left Keen Ice in his dust, pressed at the start or no. But does anyone else think that if Frosted hadn’t been at him so aggressively - hell, shoving him into the rail according to Victor Espinoza - he would have had a better shot at holding off Keen Ice at the end?

[caffeinated]

Sure. But that’s part of the wonderful challenge of racing. It’s not just who’s fastest, it’s about conquering race strategy as well. And maybe Lezcano did ruin it, but I think to some extent Espinoza took the bait, there. American Pharoah is typically pretty rateable and responsive, after all.

There’s dozens of what-ifs here - what if Espinoza didn’t take him to the front? What if Lezcano didn’t push so early? What if Keen Ice had gotten boxed in? There’s a million ways to run the race where Pharoah wins, but even more ways to run it where he didn’t.

They found a strategy to beat the champ - it happens! Part of the fun, IMO

[The_Blood_Bay_Mare]

[QUOTE=caffeinated;8295880]
I think to some extent Espinoza took the bait, there. American Pharoah is typically pretty rateable and responsive, after all.[/QUOTE]

That was another thought. I wonder if Frosted would have taken the lead and left Pharoah alone if allowed. I guess I’ll always wonder -sigh- I wanted to see him win, considering that was probably the only time I’ll see him in the flesh. But of course, you’re right. That’s racing.

[LaurieB]

[QUOTE=The Blood Bay Mare;8295873]
It seemed to me that Lezcano rode Frosted extremely aggressively in the Travers, much more so than Rosario ever did. Seemed like a pretty suicidal move, and I can hardly believe that he expected to win pushing Frosted that hard that early.

Honestly it almost looked like he wanted Pharoah to lose more than he wanted Frosted to win.

I know Pharoah was tired, it was obvious. On any other day he could have turned on the rockets and left Keen Ice in his dust, pressed at the start or no. But does anyone else think that if Frosted hadn’t been at him so aggressively - hell, shoving him into the rail according to Victor Espinoza - he would have had a better shot at holding off Keen Ice at the end?[/QUOTE]

Well…sure.

But Lezcano’s job was to win the race with his horse, not to help AP do his best. When AP gets loose on an early uncontested lead, nobody catches him in the end. I would imagine that’s why Frosted pressed him throughout the race, to prevent that from happening. A good jockey tries to make his opponents’ horses work harder than they need to in order to enhance his own horse’s chances. That’s part of race riding.

I would hardly call the move suicidal considering that Frosted ended up 3rd in the Travers, beating 7 other very good horses.

[The_Blood_Bay_Mare]

… Right. I feel dumb. That was obvious that he would have had a better shot. I think my thought was more “Did Lezcano want AP to lose more than he wanted Frosted to win”. Because that’s what it looked like to me.

[rascalpony]

Well possibly. But I do think that if AP hadn’t been so tired (or whatever else was going on there), Frosted WOULDN’T have been able to push him so hard. Espinoza knew he was in trouble early. Most of the time it just looks like AP is teasing the other horses - not this time. They found a way to beat him, but I do think if he’d been his normal self, AP would have won this race. As it was he gave it his all, and it was almost enough.

It’s racing - it happens. It was an incredible race!

[Laurierace]

I think if AP had been his normal self Frosted wouldn’t have been anywhere near him. He would have kicked on and left him in the dust as said above. I really wonder what would have happened had Frosted placed in front of AP. Not sure if all that mugging would be enough to take him down or not.

[Flash44]

That was his job.

[MsM]

Actually the race looked a lot like his Kentucky Derby. AP did not appear to be totally on form, but raced gamely. The only difference this time is that another horse got by him.

[findeight]

Would think Lezcano, who got the ride less then an hour before post time, probably never been on the horse before, did what he was told?

OF COURSE every other trainer in the race wanted to beat AP. The commentators even brought up the possibility of somebody trying to force the pace to grind on AP a little, everybody knew the horse might be tired and that woukd be the only way to get him. Hardly call it a rabbit with those fractions but same principle.

Frosted is a pretty good horse and might have hung in with that leisurely pace, good for Dale and Keen Ice should not have been in at 16-1.

Just watched it back on DVR last night, enjoyed the undercard races too, that French horse is really something. Looking forward to the BC.

Oh, and I think Zayat deserves many thanks for letting the horse run where so many could see him and against the best in his class. That’s what sport should be best against the best. AP ran a good game race for a tired horse, nothing to be ashamed of joining the elite list of great horses getting upset but still cashing a 2nd place paycheck.

[The_Blood_Bay_Mare]

[QUOTE=findeight;8297686]
Just watched it back on DVR last night, enjoyed the undercard races too, that French horse is really something. Looking forward to the BC.[/QUOTE]

Flintshire? He was pretty incredible to watch. Got some nice photos of him

[mommy_peanut]

[QUOTE=findeight;8297686]
Would think Lezcano, who got the ride less then an hour before post time, probably never been on the horse before, did what he was told?[/QUOTE]

Not quite… From the Bloodhorse article;
Frosted’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he didn’t expect for his colt to press American Pharoah.
Mclaughlin stated …“Joel settles him. He works him in the morning (to sit) off of horses. I’m not (being) hard on (Lezcano). It was just unlucky for us that 30 minutes before the race we lost our rider…”

[DMK]

[QUOTE=The Blood Bay Mare;8295900]
… Right. I feel dumb. That was obvious that he would have had a better shot. I think my thought was more “Did Lezcano want AP to lose more than he wanted Frosted to win”. Because that’s what it looked like to me.[/QUOTE]

I think we can answer this quite simply, but it involves math. Which do we think Lezcano wanted more: 10% of $850,000 or 5% of $270,000?

OK, it involves math, but I think the answer is easy.

[GypsyLover]

[QUOTE=rascalpony;8295923]
Well possibly. But I do think that if AP hadn’t been so tired (or whatever else was going on there), Frosted WOULDN’T have been able to push him so hard. Espinoza knew he was in trouble early. Most of the time it just looks like AP is teasing the other horses - not this time. They found a way to beat him, but I do think if he’d been his normal self, AP would have won this race. As it was he gave it his all, and it was almost enough.

It’s racing - it happens. It was an incredible race![/QUOTE]

His pig headed owner beat him.

[axl]

[QUOTE=GypsyLover;8298368]
His pig headed owner beat him.[/QUOTE]

There’s a great Facebook page you should check out called Bring Chrome Home. I think you’ll love it, GypsyLover!

[rascalpony]

His pig headed owner beat him.

AP’s? Somehow I doubt that. While I don’t necessarily think it was the best move they could have made to run in the Travers (and Baffert seemed reticent about it too), they made it clear they wouldn’t run him if he seemed off. He didn’t give them any hint that he was tired, it would seem. They’ve done beautifully with him, and everyone seems to agree with that.

There’s a great Facebook page you should check out called Bring Chrome Home. I think you’ll love it, GypsyLover!

:lol::lol::lol:

[findeight]

@mommy peanut;8297950

Not quite… From the Bloodhorse article;
Frosted’s trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said he didn’t expect for his colt to press American Pharoah.
Mclaughlin stated …“Joel settles him. He works him in the morning (to sit) off of horses. I’m not (being) hard on (Lezcano). It was just unlucky for us that 30 minutes before the race we lost our rider…”

Learned a long time ago, like decades, that what professionals in any sport tell the press is generally in their own face saving best interests, not necessarily the truth and nothing but. Dancing the PR dance keeping all sides involved with a horse happy must be exhausting even without the public and betting interests.

I take it all with a grain of salt. More salt with some then others.

[SportArab]

Certainly the move by Frosted’s jockey set both horses up to be caught by a stalker. It would have been one thing if Lezcano had simply shadowed Pharoah with the goal to turn it into a match race close to the wire. But starting so early really didn’t help his chances one bit in a field with other talented equines.

Even in the famous Belmont duel between Affirmed and Alydar, George Velasquez didn’t push the pace so early.

[DMK]

The pace wasn’t that fast in the first quarter, I believe? Its the 3rd quarter that was brutal. But pressure can exist in the absence of speed, and there was plenty of that.

Also, tough to compare the Belmont to the Travers when you talk about early fractions!