In a different thread, someone brought up that dressage horse prices were over inflated. I suppose like stocks and real estate (in many parts of the country). Where I live, real estate prices doubled since 2013 and priced me out (much better to rent). I wonder what people think will happen to dressage horse prices after COVID19. To be honest, I was in the market to buy a horse for the coming season and then poof… in three weeks the world changed. I obviously need to push my date back to the summer (at least). I was wondering what people’s predictions are. Many of you have been horse owners for a long time. Did the recession in 2008-2010 drop the prices?
Yes the recession did drop prices a bit.
It also caused shows to shrink.
We don’t know yet how the Covid 19 crisis will affect wealthy people who buy high dollar horses. The stick market is very much speculation and can run up and down independent of fundamentals.
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I think it will depend on the economy and jobs coming back. Many people won’t be affected that are wealthy and others are able to make money in a down time. I think quality horses will maintain their value. I have a top quality filly that I believe will bring what I am asking once the market is up and going again. But it depends on all the same factors as usual - the horse’s quality, how badly the seller needs to move the horse and how badly the buyer wants the horse and location can also factor in.
The price of expensive horses is somewhat fluid, like art and antiques and other unique objects.
Even in good times a horse that is ballpark $50,000 could get bargained down to $40,000 or bumped up to $65,000 and everyone be perfectly happy with the deal. There is a fair bit of information about asking prices on horses but none on actual selling prices. And if that $50,000 horse fails a PPE he could be a $1 giveaway to a light riding home.
The Catch 22 about hoping for a huge fall in asking prices is that in order for people to be openly asking say $15,000 for a previously $50,000 horse, you have to imagine that the bottom has fallen out of the industry and trainers are liquidating. That is going to have ramifications throughout the competition world and if things were that bad there is no guarantee your trainer won’t also shut up shop.
From an economics point of view it’s hard to say what will happen globally. There will be a lot of pent up demand for goods and services once restrictions lift, and if the various governments have managed wage subsidies well, I think consumers are going to be spending like crazy. I would expect hair salons to be fully booked for months as everyone in North America gets their hair done ;).
I would think that the longer term fallout might come next year.
Anyhow getting an affordable horse first of all requires getting an honest trainer. Since trainers get their sales commission from the client (you) and it’s a percentage, it’s not in their interests to bargain down the seller because then their commission is less. It’s also not unheard of for the buyers trainer to tip off the sellers trainer that the buyer is naive with deep pockets and they can boost the price above what the seller expects . Worst cast scenario, the two trainers split the extra and the seller never sees it.
There are a number of threads here on COTH about this kind of thing.
I don’t think they’re inflated. Compared to a hunter, which is also a zero prize money, ribbons only proposition, a top flight dressage horse can be had for half or less.
Maybe inflated relative to what they were, but it’s a small, niche market already.
I do think that some of the big dealers are going to get hit because nobody is buying top $ horses with the Olympics postponed and no shows to take them to.
The Recession dropped prices, for sure. But - the high end horse prices (like over $100k) were much less affected then the low end market. Prior to the Recession, there was a pretty healthy market for the $5k - $20k horses - especially those started under saddle. Nice not-too-fancy horses that people could show on, take on a trail ride, etc. Also the older, mid level schoolmasters - 2nd/3rd level horses that had maxed out, but still had a lot to teach people, and were also generally in that price range. THAT market died and went to hell.
THOSE horses were even given away, or abandoned. The high end horses remained high end. And that is partly just a reflection of economic reality - the wealthy were less affected by the Recession then the middle-class. Of course everyone was hurt - but the middle class was MORE hurt. And many of them learned they can do OK without owning a horse. So we didn’t really see that market come back.
I don’t know what will happen this time. I fully expect the horse market will be hurt. And I wonder if the low end market will continue to drop out (it never really recovered after the last Recession). I am glad I am no longer breeding horses:(
As for prices being inflated - compared to WHAT? A horse is worth what people will pay for it. When people have a lot of discretionary income, the high end horses become even more high end…
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I could not agree with Mystic Oak more. I’m not so optimistic about the recovery once things start opening up. I just don’t see a true recovery starting until we have a vaccine. Even then I think it is going to take some time to get back where we were.
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Yup, the folks who scraped, saved, colored their own hair and gave up smoking and new shoes to take good care of the horse they trained themselves will fall off the edge of the dressage-horse-owning cliff. They won’t be able to afford their non-essential hobby because they have to to pay rent, or sacrifice to not lose their house because they can’t cover the mortgage.
This happened in the recession, and no…the nice, easy to ride, ammy trained “nice-guy” horse never reappeared. These were wonderful horses who were the backbone of the entry level rider when their owners moved on to the next horse. They cost between 10-15k and and all died of old age about five years ago.
The horses who who were bred during the recession were VERY good horses by and large, because the backyard breeders quit (thank god), some wonderful breeders retired, and lots of small breeders just couldn’t justify an iffy hobby.
The super nice horses who were produced not only kept their value…they increased in value because there were fewer of them.
And even “okay” horses cost more, because there were fewer of them also. No one was making or training them for almost ten years. Supply and demand. An average moving, pleasant horse who can go to a show, put in a respectable test, not kill mommy, and also can go on a trail ride costs upward of 25k on the west coast. That’s out of the question for most middle class people.
It is possible for a knowledgeable shopper to find off-breed diamonds-in-the-rough, but they are under rocks in the boonies and back yards…and trainers are not going to go on safari to dig them up.
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I don’t think there will be a notable drop in the average price. However, I think there will be instances of fire sales with distressed owners.
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As it’s looking likely that the 2020 show season will be stunted, at best, people may sell some older horses for less than usual. As they would be looking at keeping them going while aiming for next year, not this year, and figure their resources would be better spent on their younger horses.
At the highest end - international quality, Olympic prospect horses, I don’t think it will change much. But the low end and mid priced horses there will be fewer buyers and more sellers, especially as people lose income and try to reduce expenses. That should definitely drive prices down
OP told me by PM she was looking for a teenaged 2nd level schoolmaster. That is exactly the kind of horse that in tough times, could go out on free lease to a very good home. People love their school masters and often won’t sell them, but might have younger horses they need to bring along. The catch is that such leases are generally done through private networks, maybe to a rider who has been doing lessons or part lease on the horse. They aren’t usually advertised though they might be.
This is not the kind of deal that a trainer wanting a commission will seek out for you. But you yourself can follow local FB groups looking for half leases on appropriate horses and see if they are willing to do a free off property lease instead.
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At this rate the economy will succeed where PETA hasn’t quite succeeded, yet.
Yep, that is the market that still hasn’t recovered - I just sold one last year, and she was on the market FOREVER, and I sold her for a ridiculously low price. She had a tricky, not consistently clean flying change - otherwise, had all the work through 3rd level, and had done very well at Tr, 1st, and 2nd level (scores into the low 70s, and even in Top 10 at our Championship show at First Level - Region 7 is very competitive). Not quite a teen, but soon to be. And there were several on the market when I was selling her - and all of them were sold for under $10k! Nice horses with good training and good show records…
Before the recession, those horses were easily $20k - I know several people who bought them in the $20k - $30k range back in the “good ol’ days”. It is really sad, because those are the horses that MOST riders should own…
So yes, I do predict OP will be able to find a good deal…
If she’s willing to do some maintenance there are lots of these around. Not physically or mentally able to move up the levels, but sound and happy puttering around at lower levels. However they are often word of mouth only. Worth putting an ISO ad out there
