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Early Kentucky Derby Picks

Racing
#21

Take Control’s maiden effort at Santa Anita will pop him into the early picks race. Sired by 1992 Horse of the Year AP Indy and dam 2002 Horse of the year Azeri you’d think the kid was almost as certain to get the track as a Bush kid would get into Yale :wink:

Video replay here: Take Control maiden Santa Anita 12-30-09 - last to first win by 1 1/2 lengths, covering the distance in 1:37.64

It was good but it was on synthetic and show me a Kentucky Derby winner from the West Coast since the surface mandate who loved the stuff …

Take Control is not listed as a wagering option in the Las Vegas futures bets as of yet.

As an aside another Bob Baffert enjoyed 2-yr old runner Tiny Woods (who is listed at 300-1 and is small) did go wire to wire on the same day as Take Control did in a 6 furlong race in 1:08.49 … he is now from 4 lifetime starts sporting 2 victories and $65,200 in ungraded earnings. Oh and who did Tiny beat? One of the other “ones to watch for” the road to the Derby: Sidney’s Candy :wink: And it wasn’t the first time the Jenny Craig Candy horse was beaten by Tiny as he did it at Del Mar July 25th too.

Still Bob Baffert thinks Tiny is likely going to be a sprinter …

#22

Another list to consider …

Voice-Tribune, CD’s John Asher, Dec 30, 2009, “An Early Peek at Derby 136”

abridged and trained noted where cited by Asher

  1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (trained by Bob Baffert)
  1. WALKING THE BEACH (trained by Bret Calhoun)
  2. SUPER SAVER (trained by Todd Pletcher)
  3. LOST APTITUDE (trained by Dale Romans)
  4. BUDDY’S SAINT
  5. WORLDLY (trained by Louisville-born Paul McGee)
  6. FLY DOWN (trained by Nick Zito)
  7. RULE
  8. NOBLE’S PROMISE (trained by Ken McPeek)
  9. JACKSON BEND (trained by Nick Zito)

Interestingly I didn’t hear much of anything about Nick Zito’s stable from any other would-be lists. He like Baffert and Lukas did however get to stock up on some top flesh from their mega-horse fund (“Legends”) so one would think they should have a few worthy bullets …

Derby contender watch for New Year’s Day: $100,000 Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby at 1 1/8-mile. The first graded stakes race in 2010 for 3-yr olds this should be Dale Romans trained Lost Aptitude (see Asher’s list above at #4) party however look for Cat Park, a homebred son of Tale of the Cat owned by George Strawbridge Jr., to maybe take another victory.

Cat Park ran down Lost Aptitude to post a one-length victory over a yielding course when the pair first met at Keeneland 10 weeks ago.

Full entries for the Calder Race Course based race (here) after making a return after a 1-year pause from the race calendar. Barbaro won this race as his launching pad to Louisville.

#23

Steve Haskin has a Derby list exclusively for horses who have not yet run in a stakes race: Bloodhorse “Derby Trail Opening Act” Jan 8, 2010 … although the names listed are not unlike those horses already reflect by Las Vegas with improved futures odds: Wynn|Encore Derby Futures as of 12-28-09 or the alternate bookmaker with KD future wagers: Lucky’s Futures as of 01-05-10

Among the names listed by Haskin are Dutrow horses (Rick and Tony, respectively):

7–Launch N Relaunch – Gate scratch Jan. 7 will be a setback, timing-wise; had to lower him a few notches. Turned in a powerful stretch run going a mile in debut at Aqueduct for Rick Dutrow. By Harlan’s Holiday, out of female family loaded with tough, hard-knocking racehorses and stallions, most notably Nodouble, Verbatim, Relaunch, and In Reality.

8–Winslow Homer – Unbridled’s Song colt has won his last two impressively for Tony Dutrow, including impressive maiden score at Saratoga; then romped by 12 1/2 in the mud at Philly Park.

Interest in the Oaks and Derby - if ticket sales are an indicator - could be even higher this year: special, and pricey, packages sold out in just 48 minutes

The limited number [3,000] of two-day ticket packages, which ranged in price from $172 for individual first floor grandstand bleacher seats to $6,390 for a six-seat box in the third floor clubhouse with daily access to the exclusive Secretariat Lounge, were made available exclusively at Churchill Downs’ new online box office

#24

Derby tickets

I was lucky enough to get some of those tickets. I’m so excited to go! Did anyone else get any?

#25

by the way: here is the 2010 Kentucky Derby logo

Whoever has done these is recent years is really big on the ‘swish’ facial expression of the horse and ears - or those who make the final pick seem to love that futuristic-esq look.

#26

Churchill and partner ups the ante for some horse to get into the Kentucky Derby … after racing one week prior :wink:

DRF Jan 9, 2010

Churchill Downs has doubled the purse of the Derby Trial and renamed it The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial, thanks to a new sponsorship from Roberta LaPenta, who raced The Cliff’s Edge.

The Grade 3 ‘The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial’ will be worth $200,000 when it is renewed at one mile on April 24, one week before the 136th Kentucky Derby. The race had been run at 7 1/2 furlongs the last three years but is being restored to its original distance.

The last runner of any note to come from the Trial was the blistering fast closer Don’t Get Mad - in 2005 he came from dead last to win by 7-lengths under a ride by Gary Stevens. Seven days later he finished a strong 4th in the Kentucky Derby.

#27

Some good news for fans - it looks like NBC Sports (who is getting an Eclipse Award for their solid 2009 broadcast coverage) is going to try and re-acquire the right to air the entire Triple Crown races.

Thank goodness as breaking out the Belmont from the Preakness and Derby is not in the best interest of the fans or sport.

Also NBC is going to increase their 2010 road to the Kentucky Derby coverage with more prep races! Who knows maybe this will also mean NBC is mulling over taking back the Breeders Cup from ESPN when that contract is up too …

New York Times Jan 11, 2010: NBC Will Televise Major Triple Crown Prep Races

Churchill Downs and NBC Sports are expected to announce Monday an agreement to broadcast six major prep races leading to the Kentucky Derby as part of a plan to attract casual fans as well as horseplayers. The move comes as NBC positions itself to win back the three legs of the Triple Crown in 2011.

The three one-hour broadcasts, two on NBC and one on USA Network, will include the Louisiana Derby, the Lane’s End Stakes, the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby.

Just as they did last year the Kentucky Oaks - unceremoniously dumped by ESPN last year almost on the eve of the race foolishly despite knowing Rachel Alexandra would be running - NBC’s “Bravo!” channel will air it live instead of NBC affiliates. It was NBC’s only option really as there was no chance in hell that their affiliates would’ve dropped their highly profitable local news at 5:30 pm on a Friday to show a horse race :wink:

#28

I like Lentenor too. I think he’s ignored a lot as a racehorse and liked a lot for the fact that he looks just like barbaro out on the track. I think he’s a really game runner with a lot of heart and just has some learning to do. He’s a nicely conformed horse with great bloodlines and he’s made a lot of progress over the past several months. i think theres many good things to come from him.

As for my other pick i really like Rule. He’s a crafty horse with a lot of heart and he seems pretty mature compared to the rest of the field we’ve seen so far. I think he has a lot less learning to do compared to the others. He a wonderful looking horse and his record so far, has proved him to be a strong derby candidate,

#29

The Daily Racing Form 1-11-10 has more info showing that had actions not been taken the number of prep-races on even basic-cable tv would’ve slim to none.

Churchill Downs is actually stepping up with the $$$ to make sure the product (even if its not a CD-owned track) is on a major network.

Liz Harris, a spokesperson for Churchill Downs, said that Churchill had secured the television rights to the races and would spend “up to $2 million” in production costs on the broadcasts. Over the past decade, most television productions of major Derby prep races had been co-funded by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s television production arm, and those broadcasts typically appeared on ESPN.

However, ESPN’s commitment to racing in the spring has begun to wane as the network seeks out highly rated programming while seeking to shift lower-rated broadcasts to its Internet platform. In addition, Harris said, Churchill believed that the broadcasts would not be co-funded by the NTRA this year.

“It recently became clear that they weren’t going to” broadcast prep races, Harris said. “It was our understanding that the NTRA was not going to televise the races this year.”

Keith Chamblin, a senior vice president for the NTRA, said the association had not planned to reach any production deals with ESPN on the prep races, citing Churchill’s involvement this year.

“We knew there was a high degree of probability that [Churchill] was going to cover the races,” Chamblin said. “We’re delighted that the races will continue to be on television, and even more delighted that they will have a national platform, which has been a high priority for the racing industry.”

#30

Highest Beyer for a would-be Derby contender in 2010

Not mentioned by others is maiden winner (but not a maiden runner) from a dead Aqueduct course on January 9, 2010 by Eightfiveinafifty who not only just won in a landslide, but went off at 1-4 … more then a few people knew he was going to be dynamite.

Video replay - youtube - $40,000 maiden special 1-9-10 Aqueduct - J F Chavez is up.

Note oddly the above video shows a length of just 34 seconds however not to worry the entire 1:30 or so duration is aired

How good was that effort?

From Steve Crist’s blog at the DRF:

The most impressive performance of the new year, however, belongs to Eightyfiveinafifty, who is officially on the Derby trail after a 17 1/4-length maiden victory at Aqueduct last Saturday that earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 105.

Eightyfiveinafifty was a well-kept secret (i.e., 27-1) when trainer Gary Contessa unveiled him at Saratoga last Aug. 1. He dueled odds-on favorite Discreetly Mine into defeat through sensational fractions of 21.74 and 44.21, understandably tiring late to finish third in a race won by Dublin, who took the Hopeful in his next start.

A hock injury in the fall kept him Eightyfiveinafifty sidelined until [Jan 9], when he returned at 35 cents on the dollar and trounced a well-regarded Bobby Barbara firster and six others.

The Aqueduct inner track was slow on Saturday but consistently slow throughout the day, and Eightyfiveinafifty’s big Beyer was legit: His 1:10.85 was nearly two full seconds faster than the next best of the day’s three other sprint races, which fell right into line with his huge performance:

See also the article 1-12-10 “Contessa has big plans for Eightyfiveinafifty”

Eightyfiveinafifty will make his next start Feb. 6 here in the $100,000 Whirlaway Stakes - a two-turn race at 1 1/16 miles - followed by the Grade 3, $250,000 Gotham on March 6, and, if worthy, the Grade 1, $750,000 Wood Memorial over Aqueduct’s main track on April 3.

“The Whirlaway I think will be a very easy race for him,” Contessa said Monday by phone from his home in upstate New York. “Then we have our chance in the Gotham to get plenty of graded money to get in the Derby.”

#31

Breeders Cup JV winner Vale of York who is now in Dubai could be a Derby entry but the track record of success of winters there and making it to Churchill not really great.

Per the Racing Post Jan 13, 2009:

Godolphin’s racing manager Simon Crisford said: “Vale Of York will possibly be aimed at the Kentucky Derby, depending on how he performs at the new Meydan racecourse and he will start off on the all-weather there.”

The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs clashes with the Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas - both falling on May 1 - but Vale Of York is not quoted for the Newmarket Classic.

#32

So I wonder how much the odds will now drop for Eightyfiveinafifty (the formal NYRA maiden win replay is here) with his future odds?

Per the Wynn|Encore Odds book futures with the KY Derby as of 1-11-10 the horse was pegged at 125 to 1 which is after watching that race not a bad little risk to take for a few bucks :wink:

#33

A couple of Derby-trail runners going out today on the West Coast and thus synthetics:

At Santa Anita is the Grade 3 San Rafael (at a mile) with the very promising Bob Baffert-trained Conveyance. In this race he’ll be trying two turns for the first time.

At Golden Gate Fields is the ungraded California Derby (at 1 1/16-mile) with Todd Pletcher trained and wagering ML favorite Connemara, who broke his maiden at Turfway Park and then won at Santa Anita.

#34

Conveyance did win but Cardiff Giant (a one-time claimer) gave him a handful and by no means was this a walk-over. Interestingly I wonder if Cardiff Giant (owned by M Stables) is named for the famed internationally known hoax which later was owned by PT Barnum and now resides in my hometown :wink:

I always wanted to name a horse after the interesting hoax. Looks like that’s no longer an option!

At Golden Gate Fields is the ungraded California Derby (at 1 1/16-mile) with Todd Pletcher trained and wagering ML favorite Connemara…

Not so much luck for Connemara despite being rode with everything Russ Baze could do in the stretch and salvaging barely 2nd. He went off at 7-10 and still couldn’t overcome another former claimer Ranger Heartley trained by John Saddler and rode by Julio Garcia.

Interestingly who owns Ranger Heartley now? Herb Albert.

He is the “A” in A&M records, just as Jerry Moss (of Zenyatta fame, et al) is the “M” of that famed former record label.

#35

Another publication with early Derby runners: Sports Network 1-19-2010 “An Early look at the 2010 Kentucky Derby”

The “big five” are Lookin At Lucky, Jackson Bend, Buddy’s Saint, Super Saver and Noble’s Promise. Those colts combined to win 17 of 25 races in 2009.

Right underneath the early favorites are many three-year-olds that have shown early promise including Uptowncharlybrown, Kettle River, American Lion, Take Control, Tiz Chrome, Eightyfiveinafifty and Conveyance.

Longshots that cannot be overlooked in the middle of January are Aikenite, Brake Lights, Schoolyard Dreams, Concord Point, Piscitelli, Tahitian Warrior and Winslow Homer.

#36

One very-expensive ($1.9M) purchase and kinda promising runner now off the trail: Take Control (trained by Bob Baffert) has “shin problems”.

Just twenty days ago or so …

As for Eightyfiveinafifty who could easily be this year’s Mr. Fantasy, looking back at this time last year, and thus just a wow horse until the graded stakes races come up. However his works look good:

1-20-2010 did at the Big A inner track 5-furlongs in a wicked 59.41 seconds

#37

One of the more interesting prep-races with more then just a two horses talked about as Derby prospect - the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park Saturday.

Some names of note in bold although I don’t see anyone being a writeoff

$150,000 Holy Bull (Grade 3)
Gulfstream Park Sat Jan 23rd Race 9 @ 5:08 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 Mile on dirt

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

  1. Thank U Philippe (FL), E Castro, 116, M D Wolfson
  2. Homeboykris (MD), E S Prado, 122, R E Dutrow Jr.
  3. Litigation Risk (FL), L A Garcia, 116, R A Violette, Jr.
  4. Piscitelli (KY), K J Desormeaux, 116, R W Sacco
  5. William’s Kitten (KY), J R Leparoux, 120, M J Maker
  6. Winslow Homer (KY), R A Dominguez, 116, A W Dutrow
  7. Wild Lime (KY), J Lezcano, 116, M J Trombetta
  8. Aikenite (FL), J R Velazquez, 116, T A Pletcher
  9. Jackson Bend (FL), J Rose, 120, N P Zito
#38

I like fillies. One of the Bloodhorse blogs featured a new filly christine Daae (named for the female lead in Phantom of the Opera). She had a really impressive maiden win!

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/triplecrowntalk/archive/2010/01/20/could-christine-be-the-next-rachel.aspx

Will be interesting to see how she does in stakes company next race!

#39

[QUOTE=Sunny’s Mom;4634174]
I like fillies. One of the Bloodhorse blogs featured a new filly Christine Daae …[/QUOTE]

Yep it was a nice effort with a good Beyer Speed Fig and I too will look for her next start. The Patrick Biancone trained runner has a potential Grade 2 race up next in Feb.

What irked me with that Bloodhorse blog is that if you dare view this effort with some caution (considering dozens, upon dozens of horses have put in solid maiden wins to either wilt against better horses, get injured, or simply that was a fluke) and you are called out as being somehow ice cold if not a Rachel-hater. Both of which simply don’t apply to me.

Rather I’m not going to be so wet-behind-the-ears as to point to every good filly start as “the next Rachel Alexandra”. That is simply dumb and any new fan who does that should if anything become more appreciative of those horses like Rachel who are different …

#40

The DRF (as does BH and TB Times, etc) has a nice Kentucky Derby prep-schedule web page with the replays, results, etc.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/preps.html

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