Early Kentucky Derby Picks

The DRF (as does BH and TB Times, etc) has a nice Kentucky Derby prep-schedule web page with the replays, results, etc.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/preps.html

What’s nice is they easily have the race chart available as well as the Beyer Speed Fig for the winner.

Thanks Glimmer! That’s a great resource. :slight_smile:

[QUOTE=LaurieB;4635237]
Thanks Glimmer! That’s a great resource. :)[/QUOTE]

Np. Oddly though I don’t see listed the Illinois Derby which was dropped from being G2 to G3 for 2010.

A top 20 list from Dallas Fort-Worth Star Telegram’s Gary West

Top 20 contenders on the road to the Triple Crown - January 21, 2010

(abridged - the link above goes to the article with added comments, sire, trainer, etc)

Rank, Horse Starts-1-2-3

  1. Lookin at Lucky 6-5-1-0
  2. Buddy’s Saint 3-2-1-0
  3. Eskendereya 4-2-1-0
  4. Tiz Chrome 2-2-0-0
  5. Jackson Bend 6-5-1-0
  6. Super Saver 4-2-1-0
  7. Rule 5-3-1-1
  8. Piscitelli 5-1-1-1
  9. Conveyance 3-3-0-0
  10. Concord Point 1-1-0-0
  11. Dryfly 4-3-0-0
  12. Winslow Homer
  13. Maximus Ruler 2-1-0-1
  14. Dublin 5-2-0-0
  15. Tahitian Warrior
  16. Moojab 1-1-0-0
  17. Blind Luck (f) 6-4-1-1
  18. Overcommunication 1-1-0-0
  19. Bulldogger 1-1-0-0
  20. Uptowncharlybrown 2-2-0-0

A change in how the positions are drawn for the Kentucky Derby: ESPN 1-23-2010 “Derby’s two-tier draw eliminated”

Churchill Downs is scrapping the two-tiered post-position draw that has been used for the Kentucky Derby since 1998 and will revert to the traditional draw for the 136th running on May 1.

Churchill spokesman John Asher said Friday the decision was made primarily because network television coverage of pre-Derby races and events has been dramatically reduced within the last two years.

Asher said the 2010 draw will be held at the track, with television coverage possibly limited to local network affiliates.

So no more days of the trainer walking up and selection the position with a placard bearing the horse’s name and silks into the position.

$150,000 Holy Bull (Grade 3) @ Gulfstream Park

Final order of finish
1 - Winslow Homer (w/Ramon Dominguez)
2 - Jackson Bend (w/Jeremy Rose)
3 - William’s Kitten (w/Julien Leparoux)

No real excuses for Jackson Bend (although he’s already had 7 lifetime starts) while as noted with ‘Homer’ that he’s run on four different tracks, four different states, and all kinds of conditions …

$100,000 LeComte S. (Grade 3) @ Fair Grounds

Final order of finish
1 - Ron the Greek
2 - Maximum Ruler
3 - Letsgetitonmon

Tom Amoss trained ‘Ron the Greek’ was nowhere to be found at the top of the stretch then suddenly like a switch was flipped he came from downtown to blow past the field down the middle of the track. It was a ‘wow’ close but good. ‘Ron’ has been running at places like Hoosier Park so his name popping up is well off the radar.

Out of this weekend’s prep races comes Steve Haskin’s Derby Dozen for Jan 25, 2010 - abridged

  1. Buddy’s Saint
  1. Lookin at Lucky
  2. Super Saver
  3. Winslow Homer
  4. Eskendereya
  5. Interactif
  6. William’s Kitten
  7. Jackson Bend
  8. Rule
  9. Tiz Chrome
  10. Ron the Greek
  11. American Lion

Speed isn’t a question with Eightyfiveinafifty but he showed it again today (1/27): working worked seven furlongs in 1:26.14 - that is two-turns at the Big A :wink:

Whirlaway Stakes at 1 1/16 mi is on Feb. 6. It drew 25 nominations, nine of them from trainer Todd Pletcher’s stable.

One less on the Derby trail although not due to injury …

Marty Wolfson has nixed Thank U Philippe from being pointed to Churchill. He was however pleased with the 4th place finish by ‘Philippe’ in the Grade 3 Holy Bull … less so with the jockey:

“Eddie [Castro] rode a horrible race,” said Wolfson. “I couldn’t believe he’d send him like he did, especially up along the dead rail. I thought the horse turned in a great effort considering what he was up against.”

Wolfson said he would likely pass the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth here on Feb. 20 with Thank U Philippe.

“He’s not a Kentucky Derby horse,” said Wolfson. “I don’t think he’ll get that far.”

An interesting Top 10 which puts Letenor in that grouping. Hmmm …

John Piesen - Jan 27, 2010

  1. Lookin at Lucky
  1. Winslow Homer
  2. Buddy’s Saint
  3. Noble’s Promise
  4. Jackson Bend
  5. Eightyfiveinafifty
  6. Lentenor
  7. Ron the Greek
  8. Dryfly
  9. Uptowncharleybrown [sic]

Speaking of Uptowncharlybrown - bought for $57,000 - ESPN/NYT’s Bill Finley has a piece on him (1/27/10) as being a feel-good contender - excerpt

No one did this for the money. The owners – 59 normal, everyday people – put up their small amount of money because it gave them a glimmer of hope that they could achieve the impossible. They haven’t done it yet, but Charly has them on the ride of a lifetime. And the best may be yet to come.

I have to say that Bill is forgetting last year with this remark: “… [‘Charly’] might just turn out be the best feel-good story this game has produced in a long time.” What about last year’s General Quarters? A Derby and Preakness runner owned, managed, trained and cared for by a retired school teacher from Louisville, KY!

It’s an old school measuring stick but for those interested … the ‘Experimental Free Handicap’ for this year’s Oaks and Derby class from the Jockey Club.

What is the EFH? It is the assigned handicap weights for a hypothetical race at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. (And the JC has been doing it every year since 1935.) Since the lists are assigned according to 2-year-old form exclusively you’d be reading tea-leaves beyond that for 3-yr old form :wink:

How does a horse get on the EFH list? To be eligible, a 2-year-old had to finish in the top four in graded or non-restricted races in the United States with a value of at least $75,000.

Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York are atop the male Experimental roster for 2009 at 126-lbs each; from there it is Noble’s Promise (124 pounds), Buddy’s Saint (123), Pounced (122), Super Saver (122), and Piscitelli (120). Next among fillies after She Be Wild (123) and Blind Luck (123) are Hot Dixie Chick (121), Beautician (120), Negligee (120), and Tapitsfly (119)

The last Experimental highweight to win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense, who topped the 2006 list before capturing the Derby the following spring.

The 126 pounds for males and 123 for fillies are the traditional standards for Experimental topweights.

A nice little kicker that will likely boost the number of Fair Grounds-runners appearing in the Kentucky Derby line-up: KY Derby entry fees paid-for with W-P-S finishers:

Any horse that starts in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby and finishes among the top three in either race will have its $25,000 starting fee waived for the Kentucky Derby.

(The Fair Grounds in New Orleans is owned by Churchill Downs, so by common ownership it makes it easier to boost this “feeder” program)

A couple of cool lists of would-be runners from a “Top 100” contenders:

Gary West Dallas Star-Telegram 1/31/10 “Top 100 on the road to the Triple Crown”

Louisville Courier-Journal 1/31/10 “2010 Kentucky Derby: The leading 125 contenders”

How do they match up? Let’s see where Cardiff Giant [10 lifetime starts 2-5-2 $76,998] appears, as:

Gary West (again as of 1/31): 87. Cardiff Giant, Yankee Gentleman, Jorge Periban: He has improved steadily since being claimed for $32,000 and could be good enough to make some noise in California.

Courier-Journal: Outside of the Top 50 and within the Alphabetical order for the “next 75 to watch”

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;4647109]
the ‘Experimental Free Handicap’ for this year’s Oaks and Derby class from the Jockey Club.[/QUOTE]

Dr. Roman does a good job of explaining it, including why it is not as predictive as it once was, but some disagree.

One of the things I agree on is that “Two-year-olds that did not finish among the top four in open stakes races are ineligible for consideration”, which I do also believe is a mistake.

Anyway, a good explanation here, as well as concept of Dual Qualifiers:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/dqs.htm

Good job keeping up with this stuff glimmerglass. I’'lll have to post my top 25, I’m one of those derby nuts who starts early. Sometimes I don’t even wager on the race, just like doing the research.

As for EFH, I thought it fun to compare the 2009 chart, and see who hit the trifectas in the TC races…EFH didn’t seem to matter much:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2009/2009_classic_contenders.htm

[QUOTE=WinterTriangle;4654715]
Good job keeping up with this stuff glimmerglass. I’'lll have to post my top 25, I’m one of those derby nuts who starts early. Sometimes I don’t even wager on the race, just like doing the research.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the links with Dr. Roman - I do think its a measurement of some value although as we all know no one tool will get the perfect answer.

I found it exceptionally odd that the Derby draw “show” (yes, the staged dog and pony show with trainers/owners picking their post after a pre-determined order) was dropped for 2010 and will this year be unlikely aired at all.

If anything the amount of interest for Derby fever is as alive as ever. There are vastly more sources of data, news, and prediction lists being made available far earlier then ever before. Churchill’s financially backing for NBC to air more prep-races than has been seen in recent years suggests that interest should be exceedingly high before the gate ever opens.

Not the most polished of presentations, but I’ll cut her some slack:

Video - Courier-Journal’s Jennie Rees with her "5 Stories to watch’ with the unfolding chase to the KY Derby

I’d be remiss to not cite Drosselmeyer and his victory for Bill Mott at Gulfstream Jan 31st in an allowance at 9-furlongs. The victory was the second in a row for Drosselmeyer, who was an even easier maiden winner in his 2-year-old finale 10 weeks earlier at Churchill Downs.

Mott said when or where Drosselmeyer would make his stakes debut remained up in the air, although one option is obviously the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here Feb. 20.

“I’ve got to talk to the Big E,” Mott said with a smile, referring to WinStar’s vice president and racing manager Elliott Walden. “They might have three more with Todd for the Fountain of Youth. They’ll probably send me to Sunland with this horse.”

I haven’t seen any horse yet that is capable of winning a triple crown race - at least in the stakes races to this point.

And looks like Winslow Homer will be out with a hairline fracture.