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Early Kentucky Derby Picks

Racing
#61

[QUOTE=caffeinated;4658406]
And looks like Winslow Homer will be out with a hairline fracture.[/QUOTE]

Yep - unfortunately.

Brisnet Feb 2, 2010 “Winslow Homer sidelined, off Derby trail”

“Winslow Homer had a little sensitivity in his shin Sunday morning. We went over him with a fine-toothed comb and found a small stress fracture in his cannon bone, resulting in Winslow having to go on the shelf for the next 60-90 days,” Porter said. “Winslow should return to training in early April. This is another tough luck story for me and the Fox Hill (Farm) fans but hopefully we will have a huge summer and fall with Winslow Homer.”

#62

Just my view but far too many people just think ‘Lookin’ is the stuff - but I don’t. His first 2010 race might prove me wrong, but for now I won’t wager a nickle on him in the future bets. DRF 2-2-10 “Lookin At Lucky gets over minor illness”

Lookin At Lucky has not started since winning the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December.

Baffert said that Lookin At Lucky is being prepared for a return in March, but that no race has been finalized.

#63

Overlooked in the news department (it was announced Feb 1st) or perhaps a lesser contender for some folks: Derby Hopeful Piscitelli Sidelined: a deep bone bruise at the bottom of his right hind cannon bone following the Holy Bull.

Piscitelli was beaten by only three-quarters of a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita Park by champion Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York, the co-highweights on the Experimental.

#64

I’m just shocked (!) that Alex Brown lists in his top 10 @ #6 Lentenor :wink: Actually I expected AB to have him at #1 … maybe next weekend.

Alas the blended top list of Ray Paulick’s “AP-esq” sports poll will, just as it did last least, continue to reflect the weekend knee-jerk, flavor of the week shufflings. Winners of the weekend will be the sweetheart although it appears that ‘Lookin At Lucky’ will sit in the top 10 [if not the top spot] until March - despite no 2010 evidence of that being the best choice.

I’m still shocked so many put Vale of York in the Top 10. If he even starts in the Kentucky Derby I’ll be impressed but for not. No Dubai trained horse will win the Derby.

Too many people are ignoring Dublin who looks like he’s ready to bust heads Feb 15th in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes.

#65

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;4659087]
I’m just shocked (!) that Alex Brown lists in his top 10 @ #6 Lentenor :wink: Actually I expected AB to have him at #1 … maybe next weekend.

…although it appears that ‘Lookin At Lucky’ will sit in the top 10 [if not the top spot] until March - despite no 2010 evidence of that being the best choice.

I’m still shocked so many put Vale of York in the Top 10. If he even starts in the Kentucky Derby I’ll be impressed but for not. No Dubai trained horse will win the Derby.

Too many people are ignoring Dublin who looks like he’s ready to bust heads Feb 15th in the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes.[/QUOTE]

Too bad about Winslow Homer and Piscatelli. Wow, these young horses can barely get thru a stakes races these days?

Lookin at Lucky , there was some talk of him going to Dubai. I’ll tell ya, I pulled up the nomination list for the Cup … there are some serious horseflesh gonna be comin in for that one, De Kock and bin Soor and some of the other ones from the far corners of the world, some serious “wow” horses.

I’ll be at Oaklawn to see Dublin, and I agree, he’s worth another chance since his problems were breathing problems. I feel certain that he’s “tuned-up” and ready for racing. That’s just my intuition. I’ll let ya know how he looks in the paddocks.

As for Vale of York, a friend who does pretty indepth pedigree research has him in top 3…going back 5 generations, this guy has the goods. Whether he comes or not, and how the travelling affects him is another thing, but just on his own merit I wouldn’t even think of tossing him off my list.

Anyway, Winslow was one on my list so I’m disappointed.:confused:

#66

Saturday’s Whirlaway at the Big A - note how early this race is:

$100,000 (ungraded) Whirlaway Stakes
Aqueduct Race Course
Sat Feb 6, 2010 - Race 3, 1:26 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Track)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

  1. Turf Melody (KY), A R Napravnik, 122, H G Motion
    2. Eightyfiveinafifty (KY), J F Chavez, 116, G C Contessa
  2. Peppi Knows (KY), R Migliore, 120, T C Kreiser
  3. Afleet Again (KY), A Serpa, 118, R E Reid, Jr.
  4. Three Day Rush (KY), D Cohen, 120, T A Pletcher
  5. Papa’s Nice Cat (NY), M J Luzzi, 116, C J Englehart

The lowest weight of the field for the horse whose name, thus far, has been fitting!

#67

Another one of the celeb partnerships who might have a Derby horse - that is if he scores some bigger victories :wink: Having Tom Amoss as their trainer does go a long way as he’s been on fire down at the Fair Grounds.

USAToday 2-4-10 “Last Mango Racing Stable and Daddy Forty Nine”

NO Saints quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton, vice president of communications Greg Bensel, singer Jimmy Buffett, and the Monday Night Football crew of Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden, are partners in the horse-racing group.

Daddy Forty Nine has won three of six starts, but finished fourth in a field of six in his most recent race, last Monday at the Fairgrounds Race Track in New Orleans.

Daddy Forty Nine could run in the March 27 Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds. A good showing there, should he run, could point the way to the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Last Mango Stable was formed three years ago. It purchased Daddy Forty Nine from well-connected owner Maggi Moss, and hired prominent Fairgrounds trainer Tom Amoss as the gelding’s conditioner.

#68

The Whirlaway: Holy cow - what in the world happened?!!!

Unable to watch the race live I just managed to play my DVR and expected Eightyfiveinafifty to smoke’em and not blow the first turn, dump the jockey, bolt away and leaving the betting public (having sent him off at 1-5!) tearing up tickets and trainer Gary Contessa getting chest pains!

Fox Sports 2-6-2010 “Peppi Knows wins Whirlaway; favorite unseats rider”

His prize 3-year-old colt Eightyfiveinafifty had bolted to the far outside during the Whirlaway Stakes on Saturday, burst through two barriers and took off in the direction of the barn area. Jockey Jorge Chavez was unseated and fell to the cold, hard dirt track.

``Oh my God,’’ Contessa whispered as he took off running through the tunnel leading to the track.

It would be a few tense minutes before Contessa found out that Eightfiveinafifty had been safely caught after suffering a bloody, two-inch cut to his right hind leg and just might race again. Chavez complained of soreness, but was walking on his own before being taken to a hospital for further examination.

He'll need a couple of stitches,'' a relieved Contessa said of his colt, and I’ll need a Valium.’’

Contessa said his colt’s bit was broken and the rein was shredded, but he wasn’t sure whether it happened during the race or after Eightyfiveinafifty bolted. Later, Contessa said Chavez told him that the bit had broken in the race and that he had no control of the horse.

#69

Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how on earth does a bit break? Do they actually mean in two pieces, or just a rein coming off a ring or something? I guess they’re under a lot more stress in racing than regular riding, but it would seem like the metal would have to be weakened and worn enough that somebody would have noticed while bridling the horse. Can apparently sound bits just snap?

Just wondering how and how often this happens. I’ve never heard of a bit breaking, racehorse or show, although a whole lot of people have a lot more racehorse and general horse experience than I do.

Glad the jockey is hopefully okay and the horse seems all right.

#70

For anyone having trouble coming up with an early Derby pick, here’s the list of Triple Crown Nominees: :smiley:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/triple-crown-mania/nominations

#71

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;4669128]
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but how on earth does a bit break? Do they actually mean in two pieces, or just a rein coming off a ring or something?[/QUOTE]

I’d be interesting in the answer too! Per the DRF: "Chavez told [his agent] that Eightyfiveinafifty’s “bit snapped” shortly after the start.

NYRA/Youtube video replay: Whirlaway Stakes Feb 6, 2010

I’d like to think they’re going to insert him into a 2-turn race in the very near future vs. wait for the Wood Memorial to try a graded stakes race at 2-turns. However that is unclear, see below, the upside is the horse and jockey are ok:

While Eightyfiveinafifty needed about 14 stitches to close a wound on his right hind leg, he otherwise escaped Saturday’s bizarre incident unscathed.

According to his agent, Mike Monroe, he expects Jorge Chavez to be back riding Wednesday.

Contessa said the horse would need a week off from training. Contessa wouldn’t speculate on whether he would keep the horse sprinting or try to stretch him out again.

“It’s going to depend on how much time I lose, how his wound heals, how his brain handles what happened,” Contessa said. “Does this start a new problem with him? How much does he remember what he did in that turn? A lot of things I got to do to get him over it mentally and physically, but he will live to fight again.”

Triple Crown Nominations for 2010 are just 366 for the $600 nomination fee due which was due on Jan. 16. [More then a few names on it are already off the trail] Interesting aside that I didn’t know: Triple Crown Productions who used to administer the common forms [for all three legs of the TC] ceased last year and that company has been disbanded. (In 2010 the racing departments of the three tracks continue to join forces to gather the nominations for the Triple Crown.)

In 2010, this far, eight fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown. As you may recall in 2009 Rachel Alexandra was not nominated to the TC (the Kentucky Oaks does not required TC nomination) and a significant supplemental fee had to be paid to get her into the Preakness.

#72

EQUIPMENT: FAIL

So what kind of bit was that? A cage bit? (click on the zoom icon in the upper left corner of picture) I can’t quite make out any rings.

That would be sort of fitting, wouldn’t it…that he had a run-out because his run-out bit broke. That could have ended very badly.

#73

I have heard first hand tales of ‘apparently sound’ bits just… breaking. Along the same lines, I have seen an almost new stirrup simply shear in half, and on one memorable occasion, a buckle on the collar of a very large and aggressive dog give way. I work with metal IRL- my assumption is that it has less to do with general weakening through use than with failure of technique in manufacturing (which would not generally be visible) + stress under use.

Anyway. Gratefully shocked that everyone is OK. If racing doesn’t pan out, the horse would make a fine jumper.

#74

Perr Baffert he thinks Lookin At Lucky will be even better on dirt - and he’s going to be equipped with blinkers in his next start. Based upon his true b-day he will still be 2 when the Preakness goes off. He was foaled May 27th.

The 1st Futures wagering pool starts this Thursday.

#75

I had a snaffle bit break right in half while cantering a 17.2 hh ottb…that was fun. I used the rein around his neck to stop him, but imagine if we had been galloping!!! And didnt McLain Ward have his bit break in the Olympics??

#76

Another one to keep on the radar: BloodHorse 2-9-10 "Fastest 3YO You Haven’t Heard of Yet: Tempted to Tapit

Video replay: Jan 23, 2010 Race 2 Aqueduct

1-mile distance, added blinkers first time, maiden win in 4th career try, margin of victory 11 1/2 lengths. It will be interesting to see what he’ll do next with the Gotham (G3) not too far away.

Also noted on the road to Churchill: Concord Point, trained by Bob Baffert, sold to Kaleem Shah - the colt remain under BB’s care.

“I think he’s a really nice horse,” Baffert said on Tuesday. “We were very high on him before he ran. He ran very greenly and he still won. He’s got a lot potential. He’s a Triple Crown nominee, and we think he’s that type of horse.”

Up next is however an allowance 6F race (#6 on the card) Friday Feb 12th at Santa Anita.

Kaleem Shah is the founder of one of the larger profiteers from the rapid growth in Homeland Security with his privately held Calnet firm headquartered in Reston, VA.

#77

Call me a pessimist but I already didn’t think Vale of York was going to the Kentucky Derby and now Vale of York may be sent to Europe:

“Vale of York is training towards the UAE Derby on 27 March,” Crisford advised in an email. “A lot will depend on the outcome of that race and we will not make any decisions about a possible Kentucky bid until afterwards. Obviously the race will be on a synthetic surface and therefore Vale of York is yet to have any dirt experience. It is equally possible that he will be pointed towards a European campaign.”

#78

Another one to keep on the radar:Tempted to Tapit

Video replay: Jan 23, 2010 Race 2 Aqueduct

1-mile distance, added blinkers first time, maiden win in 4th career try, margin of victory 11 1/2 lengths. It will be interesting to see what he’ll do next with the Gotham (G3) not too far away.

Up next for ‘Tempted’ is not the Gotham but rather either Grade-2 Risen Star (Oaklawn) or Grade-2 Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream) both will be held on Feb 20th. The Risen Star is at 1 1/16mi while the Fountain of Youth is 1 1/8 mi.

D’ Funnybone is going to start next on the same day (2/20) in the Grade-2 Hutchenson Stakes.

#79

Not surprising the first, second and third finishers from the Grade 3 San Rafael held at Santa Anita are fleeing the State - and the synthetics - for dirt racing and Oaklawn Park. In particular is Cardiff Giant who I like and think could do exceedingly well on a less laboring surface!

He along with Conveyance and Domonation are going to start in Monday’s (2/15) Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes

Also expected in the Southwest is D. Wayne Lukas’ underrated Dublin who is putting in excellent works and with his throat all good should be either a monster or just not up to snuff. I doubt the latter.

#80

Tomorrow (Sat 2/13) has another step towards Churchill with a stop in Tampa and the Grade 3 $200k Sam F. Davis Stakes - featuring the Pletcher trained, Delta Jackpot winner Rule (read: he’s guaranteed a starting gate) and the large-partnership owned Uptowncharlybrown:

$200,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Grade 3
Tampa Bay Downs Race 10 @ 4:52 p.m. EST
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

  1. Rule (KY), J R Velazquez, 122, T A Pletcher
  2. Schoolyard Dreams (KY), C H Velasquez, 116, D S Ryan
  3. Tristen’s Mambo (KY), L R Goncalves, 116, G Carwood
  4. Middle of the Nite (KY), E S Prado, 116, T Albertrani
  5. Silver Craft (KY), J L Castanon, 116, A L Reinstedler
  6. Uptowncharlybrown (KY), D Centeno, 118, A S Seewald
  7. African Moon (KY), J Lopez, 116, D Bennett

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