Early Kentucky Derby Picks

Equidaily spied this neat free tool from the Courier-Journal: the past performances for all 2010 TC nominated horses

It was about 117 pages long :slight_smile:

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;4674289]
Also noted on the road to Churchill: Concord Point, trained by Bob Baffert, sold to Kaleem Shah - the colt remain under BB’s care.

Up next is however an allowance 6F race (#6 on the card) Friday Feb 12th at Santa Anita.[/QUOTE]

I hope Kaleem didn’t pay too much for him - he went off as the clear favorite but never could get the job done and had no excuses! Concord Point fails to hit the board. A lovely close down the middle of the track by Doug O’Neill trained High Success who flew by the field and clearly can get the distance.

High Success was bought for $20k and in 5 lifetime races has never done worse then 2nd and has now 3 wins in a row.

Lentenor, ranked by some in the top 20 towards the TC, will make his next start Feb 17th in yet another allowance race: Gulfstream 2/17: 8th Race, post 4:43PM EST @ 1 1/8 Miles (on Turf)

Per Matz the plan is: If he performs OK in that, Matz expects to enter him in a stakes race on dirt, perhaps the Florida Derby, just like his big brother, who used the Florida Derby as his final Derby prep.

Still not announced yet is the field for Monday’s (2/15) Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest at Oaklawn but expected tentatively will be a field of 11 - including Dublin, Cardiff Giant, Conveyance, Cool Bullet, Crider, Domonation, Dryfly, Kitty’s Turn, Mission Impazible, Moojab, and Pleasant Storm.

Currently the first Future Wager Pool (which closes at 6pm Sunday 2/14) the leading “favorite” is ‘all others’. Much of that is due to a single $5,000 wager placed within a couple of hours of the pool opening on Thursday.

I am pulling for Pleasant Storm on Monday. :slight_smile:

Those folks interested in the journey going forward of Uptowncharlybrown - can follow “his” blog here - he’s owned by 59 different folks :wink:

Today as cited above is his big day in his first graded stakes race - Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay to be aired live on TVG and HRTV.

:lol:

Back when you still had to pay for charts, I took advantage of a free lifetime charts report offer for Brisnet members. And I mean just that when I say “took advantage”, because the horse whose charts I ordered was my Rasor D – 130 pages for one horse! Now that was a good deal.

Anywho. On to the Sam F. Davis!

Barnfairy, Brisnet (like any business) knew the risks with an “all you can eat” picing package :smiley:

One open question I don’t get with TVG’s remarks on Rule before the Sam F. Davis: they [I think it was Todd S., in particular] questioned “what has he done since?” in the context of him not having run since Dec and the big win in the Delta Jackpot.

Ok, fine, but wouldn’t they say the same for Lookin At Lucky when he finally returns in March? He too has been equally “on the shelf” so to doubt Rule is fine but apply that same flawed logic to others as well. Right now Todd puts LAL at the top of his Derby list. Go figure.

Rule, the Pletcher trainee, is the real deal despite the criticism by winning the Delta Jackpot. ‘Uptown’ and ‘Schoolyard’ were frankly easily bested by Rule in the Sam F. Davis. So much for the nonsense from some who doubted the horse.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita upset by Caracortado. The favorites (Tiz Chrome and American Lion) were no where to be found in the stretch

I had Caracortado in the near $750k Pick 6 carry over, but then did not place a seperate to win bet him on him as I was still feeling like something stank in Denmark over Whisk in race 4. My loss. Again.

I have Becrux in the 7th (in my now failed) pick 6… We’ll see…

5 Big Wig

8 Squall Creek

4 Becrux

Glad I saved my $4 & did not bet.

DWL has been cleaning up big time this weekend at Oaklawn with Thompson up and I don’t see why that wouldn’t extend to Monday’s Southwest Stakes - the final field for the Monday Feb 15th race:

$250,000 Southwest Stakes Grade 3
Oaklawn Park Race 9; off at 5:02 p.m. CST
1 Mile on Dirt

PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer

  1. Kitty’s Turn (KY), R Albarado, 115, G A Thomas
  2. Conveyance (KY), G K Gomez, 122, B Baffert
  3. Cardiff Giant (KY), C Santiago Reyes, 115, J Periban
  4. Mission Impazible (KY), J R Velazquez, 115, T A Pletcher
  5. Domonation (KY), C S Nakatani, 115, J W Sadler
  6. Dryfly (KY), C H Borel, 122, L S Whiting
  7. Crider (FL), L S Quinonez, 115, S M Asmussen
  8. Cool Bullet (FL), B J Hernandez Jr., 117, S Margolis
  9. Pleasant Storm (OK), L B McNeil, 117, J Petalino
  10. Dublin (KY), T J Thompson, 117, D W Lukas

I’ll again say that few are giving Cardiff Giant much mention but I’ll bet (and will do so) that he hits the board :wink:

Conveyance will blow this field away. I believe that he is Baffert’s best horse, but I think I already said that in another post.

I’ve been betting on Cardiff Giant and will continue to do so. Tiz Chrome looked poorly in the saddling area today, many peeps were noticing. It was quite a hot day at Santa Anita.

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;4682857]
Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita upset by Caracortado. The favorites (Tiz Chrome and American Lion) were no where to be found in the stretch[/QUOTE]

I was suprised Caracortado went off so long, he was 4 for 4 going in, and had already won at 1 1/16 and beat Evening Jewel and La Nez! :confused:

Tiz Chrome had only run and won a sprint, and went off at even odds. (I guess it’s the baffert factor.:))

[QUOTE=SLW;4682225]
I am pulling for Pleasant Storm on Monday. :)[/QUOTE]

:slight_smile: Saw him run in his last. I’m a fan of all the “pleasants”. 2nd to dryfly…I also remember thinking Dryfly looked like a “derby horse” in the paddock.

I can’t wait to see Dublin in the paddock. He’s quite gorgeous. Oaklawn has been tough this year IMHO with ‘weather’. The race is only a mile, and theres a number of speedy ones in here.

Re: Tempted to Tapit. I both named and broke this horse for Dogwood last year. He is by Tapit o/o Tempting Note and they wouldn’t let me know name Charitable Man’s half bro (By Storm Cat o/o Charitabledonation) Give and Receive nor would they let me name Touching Beauty (By Tapit o/o Victory Road) Trophy Wife but it tickles me pink I got to stamp the TB industry with such an appropriate name. Lol. Anyway, this guy has grown up ALOT since I was last on him, but he never really struck me as a horse that was overly special. @ the time, he didn’t turn in spectacular works but he was always super well balanced (read: could buck, prop, wheel, and rear all in one movement). Another one to watch that I also broke for Dogwood is A Little Warm. Even as a bright young thing, he has a super quick turn of foot and was very patient when asked to rate. Of course I’m rooting for these two. Other Dogwood horses to look out for in the future: Wildlee Special and River Oaks. Another horse off the derby trial: William’s Kitten.

Now that’s pretty damn cool :slight_smile:

Another horse off the derby trial: William’s Kitten.

Off - or on? I haven’t seen any news that he’s anything but still on. In fact if he was off they would’ve removed him from the Futures Pool 1 which closed yesterday for him at 54-1 :wink:

For today’s Southwest Stakes today Dick Downey picks an uniquel winner: Mission Impazible. Which I don’t think many others will go with :wink: Dublin, the serious Derby contender, as I’ve said before either will show up or you could write him off as a horse always with one excuse or another. I think he’ll be there in force as will Cardiff Giant …

Videos this year are more readily available the every before withe BloodHorse doing a very good job of making just about every prep race accessable at no charge.

Still I’ll post this one - video: the Sam F. Davis (G3) from Tampa Bay Feb 13, 2010 with Pletcher trained Rule

Uptowncharlybrown was starting to close so going 1 1/4 mi should suit him far better with that final kick being engaged nearing the 1-mile mark. He simply isn’t a sprinter.

Looks like mother nature wasn’t going to have the Southwest Stakes (G2) - race 9 - go off today … “race canceled - track conditions”

Equibase late scratches/changes Oaklawn Park

Any idea when would this race most likely rescheduled? This Saturday perhaps?