Early Kentucky Derby Picks

Here is what I got regarding a reschedule on the SW stakes: Race was canceled due to ice in the track. Will be rescheduled hopefully next week. **** has to have a graded stakes race to advance to the Derby. More info later"

Actually D. Wayne Lukas spoke to HRTV (after talking to the Oaklawn officials and also taking a call from Bob Baffert who had the ML favorite - Conveyance) the race will be rescheduled for “next Saturday”. [ETA - confirmed by Oaklawn as Feb 20th]

Also

1 - The entries for the race will be reopened. Oaklawn is hoping that a week later might get a few more entries (or at least compensate in case a few CA shippers go back West); they had 89 nominees for the race and just 10 were going to start

2 - Post-positions will be redrawn on Thursday

If I had to read between the lines I’d almost think that Eightfiveinafifty is no-longer aimed towards the Kentucky Derby. He’ll put in a work this Wed (2/17) but as for actual racing:

Contessa said all options are open for Eightyfiveinafifty’s race, but strongly indicated the Grade 3 Gotham, at 1 1/16 miles on March 6 is highly unlikely.

Contessa said a race like the Fred “Cappy” Capossela, a six-furlong race the same day as the Gotham, is a possibility, as is the seven-furlong Bay Shore on April 3 or even training him up to the Wood Memorial at 1 1/8 miles on the same card as the Bay Shore.

“I haven’t given up the prospect of trying him long again,” Contessa said. "I would want to work the hell out of him around that first turn, though. I’d be more inclined to run him in the Bay Shore."

No graded money to date; not running in the Gotham and possibly not the Wood but rather same day (Apr 3) in the $200,000 7-furlong Grade 3 Bay Shore. Even if you win the Bay Shore that won’t likely be enough $$ to get a starting gate for Churchill. The $750k Grade 1 Wood would almost be a must target if no earnings are accumulated by then.

Sidney’s Candy with Joe Talamo up finally returned to good form and took a very strong win in this afternoon’s $150,000 San Vicente S. (G2) at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert’s little guy, Tiny Woods was a distant second and worked most of the way to even get that.

Woods (owned by Thoroughbred Legends Racing) has a decent amount of graded stakes money, but I don’t think he’s suited to the KY Derby distance. Having been burned once too many times by Chocolate Candy last year I’ll hold off getting aboard Jenny Craig’s Sidney’s Candy who is likely doing to the Santa Anita to Kentucky Derby route.

Dogwood was definitely a once in a lifetime experience! They certainly break and train some lovely horses in their own style, so to speak. I can say nothing but good things about Ron and Cot though. Anyway, just trust me when I say William’s Kitten is off. Ssssshhh. Keep it on the downlow.

I’m looking forward to seeing Lentenor in his allowance race tomorrow…and also looking forward to seeing Lookin At Lucky in his next race…also got these notifications:

Eskenderaya:
Date: February 14, 2010
Track: PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER
Distance: Five Furlongs
Time: 1.00:60 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: Dirt
Rank: 2/34

Connemara:

Date: February 14, 2010
Track: SANTA ANITA PARK
Distance: Four Furlongs
Time: 49:00 Handily
Track Condition: Fast
Surface: All Weather Track
Rank: 26/37

Backtalk:

Date: February 14, 2010
Track: FAIR GROUNDS
Distance: Six Furlongs
Time: 1.12:80 Breezing

Awesome Act awesome in the (G3) Gotham (you can access race replay within that article link - note: video cuts out around the first turn, but does come back.)

What impressed me most is that the colt took this race, his first effort since finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile back in Nov, fairly easily having just been shipped here from England on Tuesday to boot.

On the opposite coast, we saw Alphie’s Bet take the re-scheduled (G3) Sham.