Early Predictions Re: Cross Country

[Xctrygirl]

Based on the pics you have seen from any of the various internet feeds…where do you think the problems/issues will come tomorrow.

For me:

1.) Don’t like the ground line of the cricket ball fence. However as late in the course as it is, they’ll probably be fine.

2.) I’ll be interested to see how horses come out of the second water give the comments made on the Chronicle slideshow of images about the base being concrete and how they have added plastic grids and gravel. Concrete underneath will still add some jarring effects.

3.) The saturn fence… Just should be interesting.

4.) The various skinnies all around.

That said… not sure how the course will run as a whole. I see bits of Atlanta and Athens in it. And per what a friend suggested on the EN feed this am, have to wonder if they made it so much smaller to allow everyone to get through that in its own way it’s not as challenging??? That said I think the time, turns and terrain will be the biggest challenge.

Here’s hoping that the USA can get higher than 7th, and that Canada can rock it as well.

~Emily

[FLeventer]

I see quite a few run outs with the numerous skinnies. Also its such a windy course so hopefully the horses have no issues with going, coming back, turning, jump and go. I see time faults like crazy with this course as well. I wonder why they did it at the park.

Galloping into the stadium may cause some spooks if the wind is blowing with the banners. Honestly I am glad that Arthur/Allison was not picked for USA with this course, I don’t think it would have ended well.

[Jealoushe]

I think it’s number 18…skinny bank out of water. Why does it have to be a skinny bank??

Concrete base for the water jump??..I don’t know how I feel about that!

Really interested in seeing Saturn and the moon jumped…their ground lines are just awful and full of stuff not placed in exactly the most welcoming way.

I think it will either ride surprisingly easy or really tough…won’t know which until they start tomorrow!

[OverandOnward]

Thanks for posting, I want to add questions …

What’s the philosophy behind this course, this time? Is this a run-n-gun like Hong Kong, short course with time set so tight that fastest clear round wins (= lowest total penalties for XC)? Or more like WEG 2010, a proper 4*+ with top riders expected to make the time? How difficult is it expected to be to make the time for the top tier?

The top 12 after dressage are less than 2 points apart. Holy moly, this will NOT be a “dressage test” Olympics. But … that is a whole lot of people who have to have a run-out or a stop in order for the US team to move up closer to medals.

[joiedevie99]

I read in one of the Sue Benson articles that she only expected 2 to go clear under the time allowed.

I expect to see quite a few glance-offs/run-outs from the less experiences horses. Other than that, I expect to see quite a few get around with boat loads of time faults.

[Xctrygirl]

Well think about it this way…

For the same 20 penalties you can have one stop that then adds no more than 30 seconds to get re-organized and jump… OR an extra 50 seconds on the course.

So for me I think if the time is tough on everyone, why not be that little bit reserved, ensure your horse “GETS” the question and come home in as fast as possible with some extra setting up. Chances are you’ll still be under 50 seconds over and if you’re clean so much the better. How many of us have watched Margie Engle, Michale Matz, and many other jumpers who went balls to the walls only to catch a stupid rail and be stuck with 2nd or worse with a time that was 5 seconds better than the winners. It’s all about risk and reward. And for my money the thinking person’s way of deciding what they can afford with their mount goes a LOT further than the “I’m gonna be the fastest out here” types who miss a line and get the 20 faults anyway.

~Emily

[OverandOnward]

My guess is that the saturn, crescent moon and skinnies will separate the best from the rest. The best will cruise right over. The rest … luck be with them!

I wonder if one combination or jump will be the “surprise” result, as #9 was at Rolex KY this year. One that catches riders out. Or if no jump or combination attracts more than it’s share of issues among the best pairs.

[gold2012]

I think time is going to be the issue. I suippose there will be runouts, glance-offs. I suspect, that those who are have some jumper background, may, please note I said, MAY, have the advantage. Might be wishing MLM made it. To me, it seems like one big stadium course. No real galloping lane, lot of turn turn turn. Be interesting to say the least! GO USA.

[vineyridge]

I thought all water complexes had a concrete base.

[Xctrygirl]

[QUOTE=Xctrygirl;6464193]
Based on the pics you have seen from any of the various internet feeds…where do you think the problems/issues will come tomorrow.

For me:

1.) Don’t like the ground line of the cricket ball fence. However as late in the course as it is, they’ll probably be fine.

2.) I’ll be interested to see how horses come out of the second water give the comments made on the Chronicle slideshow of images about the base being concrete and how they have added plastic grids and gravel. Concrete underneath will still add some jarring effects.

3.) The saturn fence… Just should be interesting.

4.) The various skinnies all around.

That said… not sure how the course will run as a whole. I see bits of Atlanta and Athens in it. And per what a friend suggested on the EN feed this am, have to wonder if they made it so much smaller to allow everyone to get through that in its own way it’s not as challenging??? That said I think the time, turns and terrain will be the biggest challenge.

Here’s hoping that the USA can get higher than 7th, and that Canada can rock it as well.

~Emily[/QUOTE]

Hmmmm well I was right about those damn Cricket balls.

Didn’t see the problem with #3, but hey I am in PA.

The drop and narrow played a role but I would say that the footing helped make it a bogey fence.

Skinnies I think played a role. But again I think the bigger issue was the footing.

Sad about Canada. Not thrilled with our results either.

Em

[Jealoushe]

Number 3 was a biggie…some made it look easy!

[Xctrygirl]

Hey Jeal,

What was the issue with #3? Just riders didn’t rock them back enough or what??

(Haven’t seen video yet)

~Em

[NRB]

my guess on #3 was that they come out rocking for 1 and 2 nice solid wide brush top fences (from my faulty memory) and then they need to settle and hold for 3 (2 off set verticals… that have trees that are either in the way or create a narrow approach) and folks just blew into it too fast/flat. It was a fence that required precision and some horses just came out of the box too bold and fwd for it.

[IFG]

I heard one commentator say that many riders chose a bad angle for #3. They put the horses at it so as they thought they were going to jump into the tree.