Do yall think I should go up a half or full seat size? I have meaty thighs - always have, always will lol
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It just depends what you are comfortable with. I think the 15 inch seat size looks fine. Looks like you would get about 2 fingers width on front of your thigh. But again, just depends what feels good to you.
I ride in a 14.5" barrel saddle, my trail saddle is 15", and my Tad Coffin jumping saddle is 17.5"
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My ranch saddle is 13 1/2", reining saddle is 15" and Stubben Rex is 16".
I am 4’11" tiptoeing. 
Seat size is whatever feels right to you when riding at whatever you do, especially in western saddles.
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The Circle Y trail saddle I wanted to try is not in stock and lead time is August.
Ugh.
Yes, new saddles that are not in stock are anywhere from 6 to 18 months out depending on the company. Frustrating. It’s not helpful for you with having to return two saddles to HSS, but you could search for that saddle at another business.
I’m frustrated because I would love to go to the one tack shop with a western fitter that is close enough to trailer to, but their top end saddles are Circle Y, and I’m positive I will not like the super padded seats.j
There is a large shop in NY called Greene County Horseshoe Supply that has a huge inventory; you might try them.
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I take a 16 inch but I do have an old, old Abetta that is a 17 because my husband bought it for me for surprise gift and had no idea. The extra roominess doesn’t bother me.
I know in some of the heavily padded seats they suggest going up a size and the Southbend I just bought from HSS is a 17. The Big Horn I also just bought is less padded and a 16.
I like a bit of room, I hate feeling confined which is why I could never ride in an Aussie saddle with polys.
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Circle Y makes lots of different styles, including some with hard seats and some that are not “super padded.”
For example, the Drover model is a hard seat and also has the roughout seat and fenders that @endlessclimb mentioned that she wanted.
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The Circle Y website is pretty decent, with great pictures and details about their saddles. I like the looks of their Drover, which seems like it would be a decent saddle to trail ride or hack around with.
I prefer rough out as well for added “stick”, and the Martins I own are all rough out. I do however have a Julie Goodnight saddle by Circle Y, which is very cushy. Because of the padded seat, I had to go an inch bigger in the seat, but it is a very comfortable saddle. The seat is slick, but I do have a Thinline seat maker on it that adds some stick.
I will say that when I started riding cutters 25+ years ago, the cutting saddle seats were very flat, with a smaller pocket, and everyone wanted longer seats so you could “float” through your run. I knew people who were ordering custom saddles with 18” seats, which seems crazy to me.
I still like a fairly flat seat as that is now what I am used to. I had a Circle Y trail saddle, similar to the dark saddle that @endlessclimb tried, and I too felt like it hit me in the butt, and it felt difficult to get out of even when posting.
That is true. 
But as endlessclimb mentioned, new saddles are months out at best, and if the shop doesn’t have a model/size in hand, then you are out of luck.
I am really trying to find a good used Martin that will work for my horse. However, I have now twice barely missed getting roped in by scammers on the Martin Saddle FB group page. It really has put me off private sales.
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Yeah, the Drover is the one I was hoping to try, or the Stockman.
Sigh. I’ll keep looking.
Well, I bit the bullet and have another one coming to try. It’s a Martin like mine only with a 7.5 inch gullet. (MIne is 6.5.) I’m hoping that it isn’t too wide. It’s coming from Stagecoach West with a 10 day trial. I am so sick of dealing with private sellers who turn out to be scammers.
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Watch Ebay and FB. You might catch a used version of what you need.
That’s actually how I got lucky with my last barrel saddle I bought. I couldn’t find what I wanted in stock anywhere, and right, saddle build times are 10 months out. Looked on Ebay and there it was! Exactly what I wanted! Totally lucky.
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Yes, I would go up a size.
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They have a 16" at The Saddle Shop, but a wide tree. I’ll sit in it while I’m there this weekend, just to look at seat size.
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Ok, since Circle Y won’t answer me back -
When their trees are listed as “regular” or “wide”, is it the gullet width that’s changing, the angle of the bars, or both?
Where I’m going with this - the two saddles that I tried on her fit very well, even with no pad - they were listed as “medium tree”. If I get a wide tree, would that impact the fit so badly that it won’t work at all? They seemed to give a LOT of wither clearance, so a little less absolutely will not be touching.
I think this might be a question no one can answer, I may need to test it out to see. Circle Y is not very responsive, which is disappointing.
Ok I called them - here’s the scoop.
Flex2 Trail
Regular has a 6 1/2" gullet, and a 95 deg bar.
Wide has a 7" gullet, and a 95 deg bar.
Flex2 SS Trail
Regular has a 6 3/4" gullet, and a 95 deg bar.
Wide has a 7" gullet, and a 100 deg bar.
I’m almost tempted to try the wide one on her, just to see what it would look like. The bar angle is more concerning for me, though.
If the shop has both in stock can you not try them both?
Or do you have to buy them first…
They only have the wide in stock. I’m thinking I’m going to try it anyways, but I don’t really want to drive there and back again for a return.
Do not buy the wide. Based on the pictures you posted with the regular, the wide is going to be too wide for your horse. The medium is also called regular.
The degrees on the bar angle is wider, and the gullet is wider, and there is more flare on the front.
I took this photo quite a while ago. It’s comparing the regular Flex2 and the wide Flex2 in the Lisa Lockhart (now Sarah Rose) barrel saddles that I have.
And then here is what it looks like when you put the WIDE flex2 on a horse it is too wide for. The bar angle matches the shoulder pretty decently, but the saddle sits way downhill and it’s just too wide in the gullet.
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I realize bar angles can differ between makers but I’m really turned off by the 95* and 100* bars. Looking at your pics, I don’t think you need that flat of bars.
