For sure, it does seem that the model is trending towards H/J. 
I’m finding myself more and more removed from this sport.
@Willesdon In the US, they are called unrecognized events-- and they do have a lot of traction locally. I volunteer for two local to me and they are always at max capacity for such small venues (usually 150 competitors / day is the cutoff… not bad for facilities that are only on a few acres…). They have been gradually increasing in cost in the last few years - in 2015 I took a baby to its first show and it was $85 - now it is $150.
The drawback with the US is that we are geographically far too spaced out for any one particular “unsanctioned” corporation to take over. Even in Area 1(northern region), you’re looking at anywhere from two to seven hours of travel from one destination to the other. Not a small area, and very diverse, with very different challenges and venues available.
Area 1 is very communicative… but… we have lost over six major events in the last 15 years. While this doesn’t sound like a lot, several of these venues were fixtures in the area for decades, and several died because they could not compete with “destination events” or events down south.
There is no dearth of riders wanting to compete in Area 1. However, rider culture has changed over the last twenty years to expect exactly what another poster up thread mentioned – perfect footing, perfect accommodations, perfect destination food and venue – in a way, who can blame them when they’re paying $600+ for a single weekend?
The problem is, the smaller fixtures and venues can’t compete with Tryon or Jersey Fresh or RH; they have to work with the natural footing they have on XC, or the “twisty” courses in their woods, the not-quite-5 star hotels in the area – and riders don’t like that.
In September one of our longest still-running events hosted an event after record high rainfall for the area. My horse went, with his 70 y/o lease rider to do BN. Those in Area 1, know Area 1 is famous for wet conditions - I used to always joke, I only competed in the rain. This event is put on by a former 4* rider who knows her stuff. People pulled up to the event the morning of, and instantly started posting on social media about the courses being “underwater” and “dangerous” because the XC was wet and the stadium had big swaths of puddles in it. (By the way: AA perspective here - those people need to learn the difference between “wet” and “dangerous” footing. The footing was perfectly fine. My shod horse didn’t even run in studs.) There was a huge storm on FB about how the venue should have cancelled, and they were unethical to keep it running, that riders and horses were “in jeopardy” riding the course because they could “slip and slide everywhere”… A ton of people scratched, and were furious they didn’t get their money back and aired these complaints right on FB for everyone to see.
The thing is, this exact scenario is how we just lost another event in the area, that ran for nearly 70 years. Competitors knew the event was only hosted spring and fall (our wet season), they knew that the event often hosted dressage on grass in one of the lower fields which was close to a leach runoff for a highway, they knew that most of the XC traveled up behind the main area into a wooded tract – and they would enter anyway. Then it would rain the morning before, and they would call the show organizer to scratch, and would demand their money back, and then when the SO wouldn’t refund (it’s right in the omnibus that scratches will not be refunded, which no one reads anymore) they would blast the venue on social media and/or in their private circles. This, quite literally, killed this particular event because show organizers got exhausted with the fickle and entitled riders, and washed their hands of the whole thing.
So yeah, I think we’re onto something mentioning the “H/J Model” and the “Destination Experience” – but it’s not just the people at the top to blame. Riders are to blame too. They want the fancy footing and the immaculate venue and the destination feeling – and it’s coming at the cost of all the little venues that kept the sport alive all these years.