Here’s my response to someone asking if I thought exercise would help their horse:
You can try it. Each year I figure out what my horse’s base respiration rate is during his heaves season. Normal rate for horses is 8-10/minute. My horse in season is usually around 18. If his rate goes higher then I know he needs the exercise. If his body has a jerk at the end of the in or out breath then he needs the exercise. If I hear a wheeze at his nostrils, or from any distance, he needs the exercise. If his breathing is shallow he needs the exercise. I use my stethoscope to monitor lung sounds - groans, wheezes, squeaks and crackles mean exercise.
This degree of breathing impairment does affect how much work he can do. We start with walk. At my last barn we had several short trail sections with decent slopes and I used them to increase demand without going to trot. When we do trot it’s very short distances determined by how he feels. Little trots interspersed with walking until he gets his breath back.
Those little trots get longer and we may try a short canter if he’s willing. I ask him “Would you like to canter?” and he will say “Yes! Faster!” or “Yes!” or “Okay” or “Not really” - you need to be paying careful attention to your horse to pick up on their capabilities in that moment. I want to slow down before he gets into anaerobic exercise, before the lack of oxygen makes his muscles weaken, before he has a coughing fit (one or two coughs are acceptable and often necessary to help shift mucus).
I don’t ask him to come up into a dressage outline because closing the angle at his throatlatch triggers coughing. I encourage a longer, show hunter type of outline. I also use a hackamore because I read that horses are meant to have sealed mouths for optimum breathing during exertion - this is a case of giving him every possible advantage I can.
Some examples for you:
One day my horse had a breath rate of 32. I took him out for 30-40 min and when we got back his breath rate was 43. I cold hosed, let him have a drink, and some hay cubes. Twenty minutes later his breath rate was 26. Half an hour after that it was 18, and I suddenly realized I had forgotten to give him his medication! THAT is what exercise can do for my horse. And yes, I gave him his meds right away.
Last year was a harder year for allergy induced heaves and there were days I could hear my horse wheezing from several metres away. The walk initially made the wheeze louder, but after a bit it was gone. Trot made the wheeze return - that made it easy to monitor his breathing. I felt like a huge meanie making him go for a ride. Even knowing that it would really help I found it difficult to do.
If you’re going to try exercise, give yourself some hard evidence to monitor its effect. Count your horse’s breaths per minute (count 15 seconds and multiply by 4) before riding, immediately after you get back, and 30-40 minutes later. You can do a count at 15-20 minutes post ride as well if you want. I put the back of my hand on my horse’s flank in front of his stifle find the extreme ends of in and out breaths, then count “one in, one out, two in, two out…” and use a 15s timer on my phone.
I suggest you start by walking for 15-20 minutes (in hand or under saddle). Keep a steady, forward march at the pace your horse can do on that day, in that moment. If you have short slopes/hills available increase the effort required by walking up the slope. Stop and let your horse catch their breath if necessary at any point. Even this short bit of exercise should give you an idea of whether exercise will be helpful. In the first few minutes it might appear to be making things worse, but the stress is needed to trigger the airway dialation. Don’t give up too quickly.