Forecasting prices

[gertie06]

I’m currently shopping for a young horse and I’m absolutely blown away with the prices. I don’t feel good about spending the tippy top of my budget for something I don’t love. Part of me says to just wait.

I suspect the pricing we’re seeing today is an effect of the pandemic. I think people are riding more than ever before because they can’t do other things. If that’s right, we might (I hope) see the bubble burst when life returns to normal.

Those of you who know the h/j market well…do you expect to see horse prices come down from where they are now? Why or why not?

[LakeEffect]

I think it’s more than just time on people’s hands… something about that K-shaped recovery. All I can say is that I’m happy I bought a year ago I don’t personally imagine that things will “settle down;” we might be looking at a new normal.

You may be able to find something reasonable if you look off-breed or very young from a rural breeder. Otherwise, if you want to show come spring, you’ll likely be paying a premium.

[TheDBYC]

I’m willing to bet that geography plays a role. The market for certain types of horses - high end prospects, top drawer made horses, OTTB, & the under $10k all arounder - never even blipped here. Horses in that $15-50k catagory were slow movers for a while there. At least that’s my anecdotal observation.

[Moneypitt]

I think the horse competition market prices will be settling down. Sooner than later.

As personal and corporate taxes rise, interest rates rise, energy costs rise, costs of goods services rise and the stock market plummets; you just might see horse prices soften. Especially at the mid and lower ends. In USA.

Not sure what proportion of European sport horses are sold to the USA? Enough to impact their business? If there are less US buyers, will those prices fall?

Just a guess of course. I could be wrong or not…

[lenapesadie]

@gertie06

I suspect the pricing we’re seeing today is an effect of the pandemic. I think people are riding more than ever before because they can’t do other things. If that’s right, we might (I hope) see the bubble burst when life returns to normal.

Those of you who know the h/j market well…do you expect to see horse prices come down from where they are now? Why or why not?

Eh. I am not sure we will see life returning to “normal” all that quickly. Remote work is likely to continue to be an option for a far larger portion of those in the work force compared to pre COVID times. This allows people more free time, lower commute costs and the ability to move away from highly urban areas and thus closer to more “affordable” horse keeping options. This drives up the demand for horses, keeping prices higher.

Currently low interest rates contribute to the migration away from urban centers and provide certain sectors of the population greater purchasing power.

Certainly if the economy tanks we will see horse prices drop off. I personally would rather have higher horse prices than a floundering national economy.

[sherian]

how much is the pandemic and how much is the long term fall out from the bust in 2008 - a lot of mid range breeders shut down after that so there simply has been less horses produced to replace the horses produced then that are now aging out?

[Lunabear1988]

I’m currently shopping too and I know many trainers who have helped clients buy some pretty high prices horses, almost all bought sight unseen. I would say over half of those horses look like they’re not going to work out with the current clients.

That with a bunch of people looking to buy Ottbs for their first project, I can see a good number of horses being for sale again in the next 6 months to a year.

I have no idea if that will change any prices on the market though.

[gertie06]

Valid perspective! I don’t have the stomach to buy off video, but lots of people do it.

[Lunabear1988]

@gertie06 me either! I know some people who have done it with success and like I said above, some that have had a trainwreck while doing it. I think people are pressured into making a quick decision so right now I’m seeing more train wrecks then good matches in my area anyways.