Hypothetically, how does one know they have a GP prospect? Is it just based on bloodlines? Do they jump them up to GP height in the chute? Or do they have to be jumping a certain height under saddle? Again, hypothetically, if I advertised a horse as a GP prospect what would the expectation be?
I don’t think you have enough info. What’s the age of the horse? Has it only jumped through a chute or under saddle? It’s not based on bloodlines after a certain age, and it isn’t based on chute performance after a certain age. What makes a prospect at one age doesn’t make a prospect at another.
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For me, I want to see that the sire was successful at or successful at producing GP level, along with one of three things:
Dam jumped the GPs, or close to it.
Dam has stellar lines that have all performed at GP level with good results.
Dam has babies on the ground that are nearing or at GP level.
This is just me personally 
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It’s going to depend on age
A foal is going to be all bloodlines. A three year old is going to be form in the chute, not necessarily at full height. A six year old should be showing exceptional ability under saddle. It’s going to be a combination of innate ability, enjoyment of jumping, and age appropriate training
I expect if you advertised a horse as a GP prospect, the first thing buyers would check out is: who are you? Do you have a track record in breeding or choosing or training at high levels? If not they’d likely just think it was sales puff.
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Others have made good points, but for funsies, I like to scour the Euro auctions… [edit]
In my hypothetical shopping, I don’t necessarily care about the dam having jumped big tracks herself, instead looking to a strong dam-sire, much like they do in the racing world. But yes, the one I linked to above has a big 'ole noggin, a nice regal look, and zero care in the world about anything he’s faced with in the chute.
[Edit]
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Wow. Those horses are flying. Just lovely.
And then there’s my lovely horse with Olympic bloodlines on both sides who is only realistically sound enough to jump 1.20m and under.
Another fun factor that is purely up to the gods (well, mostly).
(Baloubet du Rouet x Cumano FWIW)
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I guess, but it’s a wide jump and those knees are really tucked!
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Everything is a GP prospect until it’s not. Or nothing is. There are lots of horses with fantastic bloodlines doing the 2’6”. And almost any horse can jump one impressive big jump. Until it’s jumping around a course at the 1.40 with clear indication that it has the rideability and the scope to go higher It is just speculation on the buyers part and salescraft on the seller’s part. Obviously some people have more experience identifying early talent than others but many of their picks don’t pan out either. It’s one of those phrases that has more weight depending on who is using it, but also still relatively meaningless.
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I’d say, after bloodlines (which give an indication, but obviously not a guarantee), then the best way to decide if something could potentially be a GP prospect would be to have people who are very familiar with developing a GP horse check the horse out. If you don’t have a reputation for developing UL horses and you don’t have connections people who do, then I feel it would be hard to be taken seriously.
That said, what a cool idea. To have a GP prospect at a young age is pretty exciting!
I’ve seen foals advertised as GP prospects, which always makes me giggle. Good breeding gives you a better chance, but there are just way too many variables to predict something like that. Until a horse is performing easily at a level close to GP, and shows clear ability to still move up and stay happy and healthy whilst doing more difficult work, I’d be really leery of calling it a GP prospect. It strikes me as more of a marketing term than anything.
All the disciplines offer prospect young stock. A prospect isn’t a sure thing. It’s just a horse with a better than average possibility they will excel at something. Imagine buying TB yearlings at race track sales and figuring out which one will be a consistent winner. It’s a huge gamble even for very experienced pros.
Imagine looking at a school room full of 13 year olds and predicting who will be a star hockey player at NHL level or who will be a top selling pop singer.
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And that’s just for horses that can run, which is something pretty much all horses can do to some degree.
Factoring in the ability and temperament and soundness to jump big obstacles raises the degree of difficulty for predictions by approximately a zillion percent.
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I’m no expert on this by any means but our young horse has black type horses (sire has multiple, dam 1, damsire multiple) all over his pedigree and while he is lovely, GP prospect he is not 
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Exactly. TB breeding selects for a fairly narrow slice of ability. Fast speed, heart, staying power. And even that is not nearly as heritable as breeders would hope. They don’t even have to contend with complexities like: excellent extended trot but no natural ability to piaffe.
TB is a great example of the chance element of breeding in a discipline that has more concentrated money, experience, data and focus than pretty much any other breed. And it’s still chance. Some random lower dollar horse turns out to have the speed and heart to make it to the Kentucky Derby. Some huge winning sire never produces a top winning foal even on the best mares. Etc.
If there’s that much chance in racing, there’s even more in the sport horse disciplines that require multiple talents from the best horses.
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Exactly. The most expensive two year old ever sold went for $16,000,000 and won a total of ~$10,000 in his racing career, then stood at stud for $5,000.
And the horse that finished first in the Kentucky Derby a couple of years ago sold for $1,000 as a yearling, I believe.
And last year’s Derby winner was an 80-1 shot who has not won another race since then.
Because… horses. 
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It’s also used for jumpers:
What classifies a horse as Black Type? In showjumping a Black Type horse is a horse who has completed a class of 1.45m or higher in National (NSJ) or International (ISJ) competition at least once
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I think they just meant it colloquially—“black type” letters designates that the horse has won or placed in stakes, so using that term for a jumper would just mean that the family has had GP success.
That’s the first time I’ve ever heard that term applied outside of the racing industry. But at least I noticed the European auctions use the term half sibling correctly, which seems to evade a lot of the sporthorse industry in the US.
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Same.
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