Individual over Pedigree..want to weigh in?

[Big_Tag]

Hi all -

I come to you from a standardbred background, so I want to get that out in the open in advance of this. That said, the situation I am about to explain seems to me like a “Two year olds in training” type situation so I am still hoping to get some opinions.

For purposes of standardbred racing, the wild majority of prospects sold are done so via public auction as a yearling. We don’t “do” two year olds in training sales but the kinda cool thing with yearling sales is, you invariably get to view a video of the horse in a field at liberty (available prior to purchase and to the general public of the sales page, typically speaking). It’s a great opportunity to see a horse move on its own and I will freely say, it can make or break a sale, in my opinion. I have seen some bluebloods trot around like they couldn’t beat the proverbial fat man :lol: And I have seen some middling-bred types move beee-yoo-tif-ly and sell better than expected.

But I am looking at something that is really, REALLY middling-bred. She is by a sire whose claim to fame is being a brother to a really nice horse. His first crop is just racing this year and they aren’t exactly turning heads (though he does have a highish percentage at least to the races). The maternal line is just not that great. The dam has done next to nothing, and the second dam has had some nice racehorse types but nothing that impressive. But here’s the thing…this filly moves like she has wings on her feet. Honestly…you can’t fault her at all. She is an unbelievable athlete and that shows through.

I know there are stories on both sides: pedigree trounces athleticism, and athleticism trounces pedigree. But do you fall on one side or the other? This filly will not (well…should not) bring much at auction based on her pedigree but I feel she is a sleeper based on her video. Trying to justify my interest- and potential purchase - of her, so happy to field some success stories or cautionary tales! Thank you in advance!

[Palm_Beach]

Do yearlings that move beee-yoo-tif-ly win many races? I’d pass on a yearling with little pedigree. How easy is it for you to find a second career for a slow standardbred?

[ravenclaw]

If she moves great and is athletic, I think people would want her as a riding or show horse. Some people love the standardbred mind. A while back, I was looking for one.

[Scribbler]

What’s the statistical connection between beautiful movement and speed in a STBD? There isn’t necessarily any connection between raw race speed and lovely riding horse movement in a TB. But it might be different with trotters.

A horse can be better than either of its parents. Not common but possible.

[Helen_S]

Here’s a thought…do you think you would have fun racing her? If she moves like an athlete and sells for cheap, and you find that she is just hopeless on the track, you can probably find her a riding home and not be out too much. If you find that she can run a little and win a little, yahtzee!

I wouldn’t buy her with a future broodmare career in mind and I wouldn’t buy her if either her sire or dam are known for being head cases. I WOULD make sure that she’s got impeccable ground manners and is broken to saddle early on in case she doesn’t do well on the track. (Neither of which will be a bad thing if she is a runner, either.)

Buy her, have FUN with her, and let us know what happens.

[Jonskin]

It sounds like you know the answers to your questions and are really looking for some pre-purchase confirmation If you truly value your eye for ability, understand the risks and have the resources to care for the horse no matter what type she is, then why not?

[Big_Tag]

@Scribbler

What’s the statistical connection between beautiful movement and speed in a STBD? There isn’t necessarily any connection between raw race speed and lovely riding horse movement in a TB. But it might be different with trotters.

A horse can be better than either of its parents. Not common but possible.

It’s not necessarily movement = speed. And I am not sure “good mover” is equivalent to racehorse athlete, just like in TBs. I think watching the standardbreds move as yearlings is invaluable. Keep in mind they either trot or pace at 30+mph in race conditions. While you aren’t going to see that kind of speed out of a yearling moving at liberty, you can definitely see horses that trot with confidence. You want to see that they track straight because while you can shoe STBs in such a way to “clean up” their gait, it’s obviously better to start with one that is naturally good-gaited. I can’t tell you how many times you see a video where a yearling is clearly not comfortable with where to put their hind legs while trotting, for fear of interference. You can also see one that doesn’t have a lot of reach or that just doesn’t get over the ground well.

I also think in multiple cases a horse can be better than its parents, at least on the standardbred side. Is that not common in TBs? I can name 25 off the top of my head on the standardbred racing circuit that fit that bill. It’s more this sire hasn’t really proven himself as of yet (though I believe his oldest foals are only 2) and the dam side is just “eh.” And, I was raised to be a little bit of a pedigree snob when it comes to the racehorses :lol:

[poltroon]

I think if the individual moves like you expect a good racehorse to move, that that is more important than the pedigree.

There are absolutely TBs who outrun their pedigrees. California Chrome is one notable recent example. His dam did little, and he has 3 full siblings and one half sibling that had little success on the track.

[Palm_Beach]

If you can afford to risk the money, sure. I am financially more conservative and would not buy a youngster at all, much less one with no pedigree. I also would not want to support a low end breeding program. Is there a horse shortage in the standardbred industry comparable to the one in the tb industry?

[fordtraktor]

I would probably only do it if she sells for the price her pedigree suggests she will. I wouldn’t pay a lot extra for a yearling. But if she does go for cheap, why not? Once you have them, they all cost the same to keep and train, more or less.

[NancyM]

Sometimes they just speak to you. They say, “I am the horse you are looking for”. You may be right, you may be wrong, that is the joy of buying yearlings, they are always a bit like buying a lottery ticket. The only question is the cost of buying the lottery ticket. Those who buy yearlings are dreamers, by nature. Nothing is proven. But that is the dream, isn’t it? The possibilities.

If you are mega rich, you may buy the fanciest pedigrees offered at the sale. Sometimes, it pays off. Most of the time, it does not. Studies have been done, combining sale prices of top selling yearlings, and comparing that to the eventual earnings those individuals amass during their racing career, and it’s a pretty dismal comparison most of the time. It’s easy to buy the fanciest pedigrees in the sale if you are rich, they are easy to spot with the black type on the page, and the audience often gives applause and everyone is congratulated when one sells well. But it takes a true horseman to identify the potential superstar who does not have the heavy black type. When buying a yearling, every buyer puts his money where is mouth is. Some will simply pay the trainer to try to make the horse into what we hope he might become, others do the work themselves. It is easier to make a racehorse “economic”, if you have not dug a huge hole to climb out of with a large purchase price. So, if you are not rich, it is necessary to be a skilled horseman, and have a good eye, and the self confidence to take a chance. Those horsemen I respect the most are those who can identify and purchase an untried yearling for an affordable price, and earn substantial winnings with that horse. If you paid $2500 for the yearling, and earn $250,000 with him over his racing career, you are doing well. If you paid $250,000 for that yearling, and earned the same amount, it is not an economic success story.

Good luck with your decision, and do let us know how it goes for you. Yes, that is the type of yearling that I find attractive too.

[Big_Tag]

@NancyM

Sometimes they just speak to you. They say, “I am the horse you are looking for”. You may be right, you may be wrong, that is the joy of buying yearlings, they are always a bit like buying a lottery ticket. The only question is the cost of buying the lottery ticket. Those who buy yearlings are dreamers, by nature. Nothing is proven. But that is the dream, isn’t it? The possibilities.

If you are mega rich, you may buy the fanciest pedigrees offered at the sale. Sometimes, it pays off. Most of the time, it does not. Studies have been done, combining sale prices of top selling yearlings, and comparing that to the eventual earnings those individuals amass during their racing career, and it’s a pretty dismal comparison most of the time. It’s easy to buy the fanciest pedigrees in the sale if you are rich, they are easy to spot with the black type on the page, and the audience often gives applause and everyone is congratulated when one sells well. But it takes a true horseman to identify the potential superstar who does not have the heavy black type. When buying a yearling, every buyer puts his money where is mouth is. Some will simply pay the trainer to try to make the horse into what we hope he might become, others do the work themselves. It is easier to make a racehorse “economic”, if you have not dug a huge hole to climb out of with a large purchase price. So, if you are not rich, it is necessary to be a skilled horseman, and have a good eye, and the self confidence to take a chance. Those horsemen I respect the most are those who can identify and purchase an untried yearling for an affordable price, and earn substantial winnings with that horse. If you paid $2500 for the yearling, and earn $250,000 with him over his racing career, you are doing well. If you paid $250,000 for that yearling, and earned the same amount, it is not an economic success story.

Good luck with your decision, and do let us know how it goes for you. Yes, that is the type of yearling that I find attractive too.

NancyM - love your post. My family’s involvement in racing (again, standardbred racing) has always been either breeding or buying yearlings. It’s the most hopeful and heartbreaking segues into the industry. And we def don’t have the big money of the big time buyers; never going to be in a position to pick a yearling and buy it come hell or high water :lol:
That said, we have historically done super well on a menial budget for yearlings. We only have the funds to buy a yearling every few years, but it’s panned out ok; it’s actually the breeding that tends to bring down the budget.
At the yearling sales -If you pay attention to pedigrees and do your homework, there is always one that sneaks through This filly is still a little below what we would typically look for, pedigree wise. We’ve bought some SUPER pedigreed horses over the years, and most have done very well for us. She’s technically commercially bred, but she’s a little obscure even for us. But she is impressive, and even more so when you consider she’s in an early yearling sale and a late season foal.

[Big_Tag]

@Palm Beach

IIs there a horse shortage in the standardbred industry comparable to the one in the tb industry?

I didn’t realize there was a shortage in TBs. There’s shortages here too, yes; in certain areas.

People are stating things around the breeding piece. I guess this filly’s bloodlines are mainstream enough that if she ended up being a nice horse, you could a) justify why you bred her in the first place; and then b) she would be worth something as a broodmare.

[JJ_sLuckyTrain]

I think many astute buyers of TBs at the sales look primarily at the individual – their conformation, athleticism, and behavior – and look at the pedigree last.

[LaurieB]

@JJ'sLuckyTrain

I think many astute buyers of TBs at the sales look primarily at the individual – their conformation, athleticism, and behavior – and look at the pedigree last.

Well, they say they do anyway. Because that makes them sound like great horseman.

So it must just be a huge coincidence that they keep buying the same sires over and over again.

[Big_Tag]

@LaurieB

Well, they say they do anyway. Because that makes them sound like great horseman.

So it must just be a huge coincidence that they keep buying the same sires over and over again.

Yeah LaurieB - I tend to agree. The reason I posted this in the first place is i DO tend to be a pedigree snob and I think most owners/trainers are. And honestly we should be - there is a reason pedigrees are important. That said, there is always something that comes from “nowhere.” I do think there’s just way less volume in standardbreds so most anything is commercially bred in that you can recognize a sire in the first generation or two.

There’s a horse this year KILLING IT on the grand circuit this year, named Lather Up. He is an absolute freak; I guarantee anyone on this forum who knows anything about harness racing knows who he is. He is who I might equate this filly to, breeding-wise: his sire is commercially bred but just not a popular sire with any mainstream clout; one can recognize the horses on his maternal line for a couple generations and that’s about it.

We’ll see what happens. Sale is in a few weeks and she’s on the radar. I will certainly update this post with the outcome.

[LaurieB]

@Big_Tag , I haven’t replied to this thread before this because, while I am very familiar with Thoroughbred breeding, I know almost nothing about breeding Standardbreds. So I’ve been conflicted about what I would do in your place. Like you, I can be a bit of a pedigree snob in that I like to see at least a few recognizable names on the page of a horse I am considering. In TBs, there is a huge disconnect between sires that are “merely” successful and those who are commercial. While the commercial sires are the ones revered by most pundits, my choices tend to fall more toward the solid stallions who simply produce very good runners.

In your place, there are a few things I would take into consideration when delving into the yearling’s pedigree:
Re: the sire whose brother is a really nice horse–is that brother also standing at stud? If so, how is he doing as a sire? You say the first crop isn’t turning heads–are they the type of horses (genetically or physically) who are like to improve with age? Is it possible you haven’t seen the best of them yet?

When you say that the dam has done next to nothing, do you mean on the track or in the breeding shed? If she has had numerous foals previously and produced nothing with talent, that is worrisome. But if she’s only had a couple of tries, maybe this is a better nick for her. Or perhaps her earlier offspring were raced by people who made poor choices about their care and training which prevented them from reaching their full potential. (That happens all the time with TBs.)

Or maybe I’m just listing lots of excuses. :lol:

I have to say, I would be swayed by the sight of a filly with wings on her feet. As it happens we have one like that this year and I can’t take my eyes off her. I know I’m going to have fun watching her progress no matter how things turn out. And in this tough industry, there’s a lot to be said for embracing the fun parts.

Good luck with the upcoming sale! I hope she falls into a price range you’re comfortable with, and I look forward to hearing updates. :yes:

[Palm_Beach]

When you are trying to catch lightning in a bottle, you will stand there for a very very long time with your hand stretched out, and more likely than not, you will get burned.

If you just want to spend a few thousand dollars to have some fun, then get into a syndicate or club that buys horses that are racing or close to racing, and you have little obligation beyond your initial buy in. These horses are usually higher quality and less risky, although you don’t really make any money. But you get the fun out of it.

When you are the sole owner and looking for fun, it becomes not fun when the horse does not race and you are still paying the bills on it. And if it can’t race, then you have to keep it, find a home for it, or euthanize it. Finding a good home is not easy at all. For some reason, people think there are oodles of horsemen out there ready and willing to take on a “free” horse but the reality is that most people are not good enough horsemen to handle ex-race horses, so it’s tough to find good homes.

I realize that OP has experience with breeding and racing, but if you have to talk yourself into a horse, you should pass.