I agree with the other comments that you are unlikely to make a profit. If it helps to see it all written out, I bought a project pony (13.2 hh TB/Welsh cross) in July 2018 and sold her in July 2019 (kept her a bit longer than planned because I was having fun, but also to put a show record on her). I tracked every single expense related to the pony in an Excel document.
Keep in mind that I keep my horses at home and she was a small, easy keeper so my “board” costs for her were extremely minimal–not at all what you would experience with a typical OTTB and/or a boarding situation. I didn’t factor in my time/labor or any general property-related expenses since she was an “add-on” to my existing herd. She was also barefoot until shortly before I sold her.
Here is a summary of my expenses:
Pony purchase: $1,600
One year of “board”: $598 (yes, you read that right…less than $50/month for grain, hay, and bedding)
Trims/shoeing: $740
Vet/dentist/meds: $2,439 (about $1,000 routine and $1,500 to resolve a specific issue)
Equipment (saddle fitting, pony-sized girth, fly mask, blankets, etc): $690 but I sold some of it with her for $320, so net of $370
So right there you have $4,500 and again, that is with the BARE MINIMUM of board-type expenses plus a barefoot horse and no terrible luck (injuries, etc). Factoring in only the above expenses, I pretty much broke even when I sold her after a year.
However, I spent about $2,200 on shows, foxhunting, and clinics. Obviously those were fun and educational for me but the shows were really required to justify her sales price, which was a good amount above the $1,600 I had spent on the good-natured but green pony.
I also spent about $2k in dressage and jumping lessons during that time (I was eventing the pony). Again, those were partially for my education and enjoyment, but I would not have created as much value in the pony without them. I could have brought her along fairly well on the flat because I have a strong dressage background (competed Grand Prix dressage on a horse I brought up through the levels with help from my trainer), but I was getting back into jumping after some time off and both the pony and I really benefited from the jumping lessons. It sounds like you will also need some lessons or trainer assistance to bring yours along so make sure to factor that in.
In the end, I decided it was fair to apportion half of the shows, clinics, lessons, etc to the pony’s development costs and half to myself because I was benefiting too. Adding up all the expenses I mentioned above plus half of those costs, I lost about $2,500 on my project pony. I don’t regret it at all because I think $2,500 is a small price to pay for a year of fun with a freakin adorable pony, but it’s certainly not a good business model!
Hope that helps!
I think to make money flipping you need to not be boarding, to be fairly independent in your training, and to have enough volume/turnover to offset the failures. I can check the first box but not the second or third, and it sounds like you can’t check any of them.