After a lot of hemming and hawing and “hmm, that’s odd” ing, our vet, the specialist who did the bone scan, and the specialist specialist we sent the bone scan results to for another opinion are all inclined to think some kind of bone bruise/edema.
As to the concussion question, he was imported from Germany in October, but he’s spent most of the time since then in a sand arena and jumping significantly less than he was over there, so that seems unlikely, but we haven’t ruled it out.
The lameness was spontaneous (fine one day, horribly not fine the next, slowly improving), so the operating theory is that he likely got cast in his stall (or similar). He’s now mostly sound (though he’s bonkers from stall rest, so watching him trot out is mostly revelatory of his absurdly high energy level rather than anything else), so whatever that swelling is doesn’t seem to be crippling him on a day to day basis, but beyond that it’s not clear. The RIU on the bone scan was bilateral, but worse on the left front side (which was the side that presented as lame).