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Is A Recession Coming? What About The Horse Market?

Off Course
#21

I’m constantly combing the ads, and never inquiring cause I know I’m still a tire kicker and don’t want to waste anyone’s time. I’ve been casually looking for horse #2 for God Knows How Long, and knowing that prices were nuts, figured there was no harm in waiting. And besides, I’m still trying to figure out what it is I REALLY want to buy. So I read the ads. Constantly. It’s a daily fixation that I spend 15-20 minutes checking the sites and FB groups.

I have lots of inspiration and think I have my ideal in mind now- I keep hoping the unicorn will fall in my lap via word of mouth, but assuming not, I expect to be shopping hard by March - and also expect that the low end of nice horses pricing will have fallen from the record levels we’ve seen.

4 Likes
#22

I’m suddenly seeing a LOT more horses in the 10k-40k range. All over the board from greenies to show horses that have been sitting for various reasons. Also, a ton more leases and half leases advertised online. I’m not sure if I tricked the algorithm somehow to suddenly see all this, and I know show season is over as well. Still, I’m seeing quality that would’ve been advertised at insane prices coming down to more what I’d expect. Maybe it’s winter, maybe it’s the economy.

I’ll be watching with interest

3 Likes
#23

As a person in the market for a nice horse on a bargain, I will also be watching with interest. But I think I agree with you.

I asked a person about an unstarted coming 3 year old today and they told me they were asking $30k. I just rolled my eyes and said out of budget but thanks. A year ago I would not have blinked.

ETA: I’ve seen a number of horses in the 50-75k range that have been for sale since the spring. And yet the owner/trainer is still asking the same price. One would think they would either match the market, or there’s a significant finding that other people are passing on that makes the horse not worth that price tag.

4 Likes
#24

I’ve been looking for a while. Early this year the market seemed to soften a bunch and I had a lot more horses to look at after a long drought, but despite a few test rides and one that got as far as PPE my needs are fairly specific and nothing quite worked out.

Just in the last few weeks, though, I’ve been inundated with options and have ridden some awesome horses, and I’m almost certainly buying my new horse this coming Sunday. While I was previously looking at horses priced up to the mid-5s (would have had to be really perfect for me at that level, but I’d think about it), my two top recent contenders have been in the upper 4s.

I’ve been keeping an eye on some of the same perennially-for-sale horses on the usual web sites for $50-70k that (by my read on the market anyway) were overpriced. Mostly I think some sellers are really unmotivated or deluded. I can tell myself all kinds of stories like “unscrupulous sale barn creates unreasonable expectations so they can keep milking the owner” or “relationship conflict means horse needs to be ‘for sale’ even if it’s never going anywhere at that price” or “I know what my horse is worth (based on one offhand comment a famous trainer once made) and will not take less” (have seen all three!), but absent inside info who really knows?

5 Likes
#25

I think it’s likely there will be more horses on the market this fall/winter due to hay prices, but I doubt those types (barely broke/trail broke 10+ year old 14.3 hand gaited cross types, backyard pets, etc.) will meet the OP’s purchase criteria.

I think, in the show horse market, while we will probably see some softening, we need to look at the bigger picture. During and after the Great Recession, breeding numbers took a nose dive and have never recovered. There are fewer horse out there, period, especially in the prime 8-12 year old riding horse demographic. That will naturally elevate prices in any market, all things being equal.

2 Likes
#26

FWIW I was just talking to someone who was at New Holland yesterday and her report was “more horses than I have seen there in the past ever”.

#27

Oh geez, that makes me sad.

6 Likes
#28

The auction by my house is turning away horses at the moment.

Higher end market will be fine but the lower end market is dropping, and I’m waiting for the middle market to drop a bit.

1 Like
#29

Me too. It’s so hard to be patient but I’m thinking I’ll wait it out. And if nothing happens, at least in six months I’ll have more saved to buy with the current market.

2 Likes
#31

High-end barns have cost $2,500+ for basic board/training for a long time. That’s nothing new.

3 Likes
#32

I browsed my local offerings online. I’m seeing a lot more horses available.

#33

Me too, compared to just a few months ago… but they are mostly the aforementioned grade, nondescript backyard style horse. And people across the board are still wishfully clinging to what the horse was worth at the height of the hot market.

3 Likes
#34

I’m officially noticing more horses sitting on the market of all types. Everything from rescues/adoption organizations to race horses coming off the track to made riding horses. Most of them have baggage of some sorts, but a year ago they would have been snapped up regardless.

Thoroughbred sales are getting sluggish, too. RNAs have been way up at the last couple sales and prices are down a bit.

2 Likes
#35

I’m seeing horses sit for sure. I’m seeing some price drops (talking about the 4 figure price points here) but still a bit stiff. We’ll see how much Christmas pony shopping happens!

There’s a nice black and white pinto near me priced reasonably that would suit my family but I’m not ready for a third horse.

#36

Like others mentioned, I have noticed in the last few weeks more horse listings. Unfortunately, they’re on the west coast and I’m east coast. Who wants to pay $3000 to ship a horse, plus the cost of traveling to see the horse. I’m trying to stay in my backyard. Hope this thread stays alive thru the winter. I am super curious what others are seeing or buying.

2 Likes
#37

We’re in the exact same canoe. I’ve kind of just added the cost of transportation on top of the cost of the horse and said my budget is $X including PPE and transport. So I can buy a more expensive horse close to home, or a cheaper horse far away and ship it. Still not sure which one I’ll eventually do.

1 Like
#38

Interesting…as im not seeing a ton of inventory at all.

I’m looking for a beginner safe first horse for a young teenager, hony needs to be capable of jumping round 2’ max 2’6” doesn’t need a change or need to win the hack at local. Would prefer it to hack out quietly or have the ability to with some work.

More of a kick ride but Older ok, green ish but kind ok, some maintenance ok. 14h to 15.3 mare or gelding non breed specific with a 15k budget and I’m not seeing much available in NJ and surrounding areas…

Oh and sound… would be open for a small fee paid lease as well! If anyone hears or sees anything please feel free to Pm me! Thanks

Market has been nuts for the last couple of years for sure!

2 Likes
#39

I think those types of horses are always in enough demand that they won’t be impacted by the shift in the market as quickly as the greener types who need more experienced riders or the uh, “less sound,” types.

5 Likes
#40

I paid 28k for a 1.30ish horse 10 years ago that didn’t vet super well (am I crazy? Probably why I moved to the middle of no where and gave up English riding) :wink:

The local market here went from 2k for papered ranch stuff to 8k-12k for non papered ranch stuff.

Cooled off a lot this month at the local auction house. Top 5 averaged 20k top 100 dropped wayyy down to 5-6k.

1 Like
#41

Friesian Tennessee walker crosses are oddly popular. Dime a dozen.

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