^^^ Hard to say. My sweet itch pony apparently didn’t have a problem the first 2 or 3 years at his owners’ location, but then developed it very badly. It may be a question of the immune system finally being overloaded by multiple exposures and becoming sensitized.
Also, there are numerous sub species of cullocoides gnats. Perhaps your horse is more reactive to one than another. A fair amount of anecdotal evidence says moving the horse just a few miles away can be a game changer. It is known that the gnats are weak fliers, much more than 5 MPH wind and they are not nearly as prevalent. My site is very breezy (near Lake Michigan and on a high plateau) so I think that helps a lot on most days. On the wind-still days, I do notice much more bug bite reaction and itchiness, as if the bugs were getting at him more. On those few truly breezeless days, I tend to keep turnout shorter even keep him inside.
Around here at least, we still have plenty of flies due to the extended mild weather. Normally by now, we’ve had several killing frost but this year no at all yet. Flies are still active.
Simkie, maybe in your area gnats are active too. Have you changed the hours of her turnout? Have you had more rain that may have caused larvae to hatch?
Another thought is that the itch may have nothing to do with the flies but rather Dove is itchy because she is sweating under her winter coat. I had this problem with my other (non-sweet itch) pony all last summer and into the winter. Turns out he was not thermoregualting properly. He continued to sweat even when the winter temps arrived. At that point I insisted on blood testing. He turned out to have a borderline low thyroid level and borderline IR. (He’s 23.) Got him on a very low dose of Thyro-L and inappropriate sweating stopped almost immediately. He also stopped itching. With the unseasonably warm weather that we continue to have, both of mine sweat just a little on the warmest days, but not to the point of acting itchy. Horses, if it isn’t one thing it’s another. Got to love them though!