Will I be disappointed if I am hoping Mucho Macho Man wins the derby? I usually wait till derby day to pick my horse. I like to watch them in the post parade to get a feel for the horse. However, this year I will not be near a TV:no: so I am having to make my pick early.
Are there any super horses? What are the chances of a Triple Crown out of this field?
Mucho Macho Man because it will be fun to listen to them trying to say that over & over again, fast!
[QUOTE=Toadie’s mom;5589383]
Is triple A doomed with the #1 pp? Opinions please, before I finalize my bet:winkgrin:[/QUOTE]
Regarding PP1: While the rail has produced 12 Kentucky Derby winners in the race’s 136-year history, the last to win from there was Ferdinand in 1986. The last horse to finish in the top three from post 1 was Risen Star in 1988. Limehouse (2004) and Jazil (2006) finished fourth breaking from the rail.
Aracharcharch is a good horse and I’m still going to bet on him to hit the board, but he’s more of a closer so this will be tough. A big shame as Comma To The Top would love this position.
No one thinks that the rail will be particularly deep, as opposed to the rest of the track, after the considerable amount of rain they’ve been enduring?
Thanks for posting the link to past performances. Still trying to decide who I would bet on if I was there. Tough decision.
TV coverage
Ok, OK, I sprang for the package, after talking to the people at DISH. It was only up one tier, and ONLY $10 more a month:o but I can divest myself in a month if I wish. Good deal. So now, I am looking to see just what VS is going to cover. It looks like ONE WHOLE HOUR on Friday for the Oaks, Does that mean that HRTV will be covering the undercard? I hope?
And as far as picking? HA! I would never jinx a horse by saying I wanted it to win. ALWAYS on a wrong horse, so my bet is just that they all finish without getting too banged up, and all on four legs.
Baffert on Uncle Mo - just blowing smoke?
“Uncle Mo looks fantastic out there to me,” Baffert said. “He’s the best horse in the race. I don’t care what rumors you hear. You can’t throw him out. He’s looked great to me. Everyone is talking about him being 50/50. I think [owner Mike Repole] is just trying to build a price for himself because it sounds like he likes to gamble. He’s going to be dangerous. I don’t think it’s some [gastrointestinal issue], I think he just got tired at the Wood [Memorial]. From what I’ve seen visually, there is nothing there that tells me the horse isn’t ready to run. I’m not buying that crap. He’s just trying to steal this race.”
I think his 18-PP sucks and is a bigger factor (to w/d) than the stomach issues myself.
[QUOTE=spotnnotfarm;5589644]
Are there any super horses? What are the chances of a Triple Crown out of this field?[/QUOTE]
I don’t see a horse head and shoulders above the rest. Dialed In looks very solid, but the impending grind of winning the TC (upon him) seems dubious. He’s lightly raced, lightly worked, and the distance is always an element. Four lifetime races:
Nov 12-2010 (6 1/2f)
Jan 30-2011 (1-mi)
Mar 06-2011 (1 1/8-mi)
Apr 11-2011 (1 1/8-mi)
In a TC scenario he would now be expected to win: May 07 (1 1/4-mi), May 27 (1 3/16-mi), Jun 11 (1 1/2-mi) … it just seems to be a very tall order as it does for any horse.
Mike Repole: Decision Friday morning with Mo “a go” or “no”
“This isn’t going to be a Saturday decision,” he said. “We owe it to the racing fans, we owe it to the public; it’s not our intention to drag this out.”
Weather report:
The National Weather Service forecast for Saturday is for a 40-percent chance of rain, with scattered thunderstorms, and a high temperature of 68 degrees. There was a 50-percent chance of rain, mostly morning showers, in the Friday forecast.
Money, money
If all 20 horses entered in the Derby start, the purse will be $2,196,800, with $1,436,800 to the winner.
Is your Derby pick piloted by a jock doing well at Churchill thus far?
Check the CD jockey standings for the meet thus far
Example: unlike her final anemic 3% win percentage at Keeneland (for that Spring meet) Anna Napravnik (to ride Pants on Fire) has an 18% win rate for the moment.
Good things to come for the Court family?
Well if they don’t win the Derby with Archarcharch it’s somewhat hard to beat the family affair with having won today’s Race 6 at Churchill 
Maiden Claiming for $21k purse ($40k claiming): #1 Court’s Journey. Bred by Krystal Court (wife); Owned by Krystal Court; Trained by Jinx Fires (father-in-law); jockey Jon Court.
Worth a glance if you put some stock into workouts and visual impressions. A change in weather and of course the unknown after the gates open do throw even the best of opinions into doubt.
DRF’s Mike Welch (clocker) - his final impressions of the 20 Derby starters from over the past 12 days:
Example:
Master of Hounds: The initial impression of the lone European invader in the field was not a good one as he appeared to be a little listless during his first visit to the track on Thursday despite having been confined to quarantine the previous two mornings. His stride looked very stiff and short during a routine 1 1/4-mile gallop, although not having seen him on a regular basis, it’s hard to judge if this is his regular way of going. All in all, however, not what you would want to see 48 hours out from the race.
Midnight Interlude: Although the Santa Anita Derby winner received a bullet for both his works here, his second local work was much better than his first when he struggled to keep up with older stablemate Mythical Power over a somewhat funky track on April 26. He certainly hasn’t wowed anyone with his routine gallops, but he does have Bob Baffert in his corner and that’s certainly got to be worth a couple of lengths. But the overall impression has been ordinary at best.
I like - Aracharcharch, Dialed In & Midnight Interlude (and not in that order - 
).
I’m going to cheer for Kathy Ritvo and Rosie for sentimental reasons.
[QUOTE=Acertainsmile;5591276]
I’m going to cheer for Kathy Ritvo and Rosie for sentimental reasons. :)[/QUOTE]
Can you imagine if she comes back to Pimlico with a Derby win under her belt? Preakness week will be even more a buzz than usual on the backside. It would be great! Then on the other end of the spectrum you have Pletcher. It wouldn’t break my heart if he never won another race ever again after what he pulled with Uncle Mo.
Uncle Mo was just scratched.
My purely amateur thoughts:
My 3 picks are Archx3, Midnight Interlude, and Nehro.
Archx3 had better watch out coming out of the gate. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Bo-rail in 3 immediately cut across and squeeze #2 and #1.
I would be seriously ticked off at Pletcher and Mo connections if I owned the #21 horse on the earnings list right now.
Hope all come back safely, and it’s a true-run race without significant impact from stunts like in #2 above.
[QUOTE=LSM1212;5591561]
Uncle Mo was just scratched.[/QUOTE]
Yep scratched with a press conference slated a little later to explain. I don’t think anyone should be shocked whatsoever.
Uncle Mo meet Old Fashioned
What bites most of all is Johnny V. now losing a mount when frankly Mike R was unlikely to run Mo anyhow.
Worth noting in regards to Uncle Mo: No reason was given by John Vietch, the chief steward, when the scratch card was submitted.
The always one-page handy chart: NYPost’s Ed Fountaine: 137 Derby Bettor’s Guide 2011
sorry
I mistakenly started another thread about Uncle Mo’s scratch…should have known y’all would be ahead of me!!
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