Kentucky Derby 2011

[Glimmerglass]

Yes, I think its a premature to look towards the leaders for 2011, but in honor of long time COTH’er Barnfairy I submit an early contendor ‘Stay Thirsty’ owned by Vitamin Water founder Mike Repole who has moved up from the claiming game to buying at auction promising runners.

Repole’s other runner “Uncle Mo” seems to be the overwelming favorite in the Grade 1 $300,000 Champagne Stakes although don’t discount Stay Thirsty:

Stay Thirsty finished second in his debut, graduated next out by 5 1/2 lengths, then fought on gamely to hold second in the Hopeful S. (G1) behind Boys at Tosconova (Officer) after stumbling at the break and showing speed. Javier Castellano will take over from Velazquez on the colt who is bred to stretch out successfully.

Will we see him running in Louisville, Kentucky May 7, 2011? Who knows but as the great pitchman says (and Barnfairy, too) “Stay Thirtsy … my friends”

Frankly this early in the game I’m looking towards Euro runner and named for the late Bobby Frankel: “Frankel” although will we see him in November in the States let alone in May? It appears he may just stay back in Europe with Juddmont cleaning up with him accordingy:

It appears that Juddmonte has picked a very good one to honor its late trainer in Frankel, whose early dominance has made him the early choice for next year’s British classics, the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby.

It would be a lovely thing to see Frankel race on American shores, and that certainly could happen down the line – perhaps in the 2011 Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs. But Cecil appears set on a plan for one more start this year for Frankel, a colt he has dubbed as one of the most promising in his 40-year career, and that will be in England.

He’s unsure of the colt’s ability to handle the 1 ½ miles of the Epsom Derby – his mother was best at short distances – but he’s anxious to see what happens.

<a href=“http://www.voice-tribune.com/index.cfm?action=app.showDetail&pageid=203&item=2167”[/url">Source: CDI’s John Asher, Sports Writer

[Glimmerglass]

Vegas Odds

Wynn Las Vegas opened its 2011 Kentucky Derby futures on Saturday, Sept. 4, and here are the adjusted future-book sheets, as of Monday, Oct. 4:

Wynn Oct 4, 2010 Odds Page 1

Wynn Oct 4, 2010 Odds Page 2

One of runners with lower odds (most are 100-1 or 300-1) is Curlinello @ 40-1; Stay Thirsty is 60-1 and the lowest future odds of all is his stablemate Uncle Mo at 30-1. An interesting play on a name Stonewall Jackson @ 150-1

[Barnfairy]

Well now how can I not root for a horse with a name like that? :winkgrin:

@Glimmerglass;5142678

Will we see [Stay Thirsty] running in Louisville, Kentucky May 7, 2011?

Further, if we do, can T-Pletch make it two in a row?

Worth noting, I think, there was a rough break in his last start out in the Hopeful. When the gate opened, Stay Thirsty stumbled out and two of the other starters in the 4 horse field bumped into each other.

[Glimmerglass]

We will see this Saturday if Stay Thirsty has improved with the break and if his stablemate Uncle Mo is that much better.

One thing we will be assured of in 2011 is NBC having the Derby and Oaks tv rights. DRF Oct 7, 2010: Churchill Downs, NBC extend Kentucky Derby deal

NBC Sports has reached a five-year deal with Churchill Downs Inc. to broadcast the Kentucky Derby through 2015, the two companies announced on Thursday.

The deal is worth approximately $25 million, or $5 million a year, according to officials with knowledge of the agreement, an amount that is less, per year, than NBC paid for the broadcast rights to the Derby in a previous five-year deal that expired this year.

The deal also includes the broadcast rights to the Kentucky Oaks, which will be shown on one of NBC’s cable channels. The Oaks is held the Friday before the Derby, and in the past two years, the race has been broadcast on NBC’s Bravo cable channel.

Interestingly:

Bidding for the rights started this summer. According to the officials, Fox had sought the rights to the race for the first time, but NBC’s proposal won out.

As for the Belmont that is still undetermined. ABC’s right expired this year as well and NBC is likey bidding on it. The Preakness (if they are smart) should grab on to NBC sports as well.

Additionally Churchill Downs in 2010 paid NBC/Universal to air a number of prep-races even a couple at non-CDI owned tracks. Its unclear if that deal was extended for 2011.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Great time to post about the 2011 field, actually, so a big thank you! Was hoping to get some opinions on here on the potential contenders.

Uncle Mo’s maiden win at Saratoga was fairly mind-boggling (at least for my puny mind) so I’m very keen to see him go this weekend.

Frankel is another mind-boggler, too!

[Glimmerglass]

Stay Thirsty was scratched and Uncle Mo (replay here) crushed the field with just a tick off the stakes record for the Champagne Stakes (Grade1). Oddly this is just the first graded stakes winner for his owner Mike Repole who was 0-27 in graded stakes attempts. The founder of Vitamin Water has pumped far north of $10M into this sport …

For an ordinary 2-year-old making just his second career start, this might have taken something out of him. In the next half-mile it became evidently clear that Uncle Mo is no ordinary 2-year-old.

He’ll be the favorite for the BC JV at Churchill Downs.

[MimsEppi]

As much as I love Kantharos, I’m not sure he’ll stay. Or stay sound, for that matter.

[Glimmerglass]

Prior to Uncle Mo in the Champagne I was amused by this product plug by his owner - Mike Repole - and his goals for 2011:

Repole doesn’t have an actual uncle named Mo, but always wanted to name a horse that when things started going well with his stable.

Last year, he was the leading owner in New York with 51 winners, despite going 0-for-36 at the Saratoga meeting, which got him thinking of sending the majority of his horses to four-time Eclipse winning trainer Todd Pletcher.

“I focused on changing my stable from quantity to quality,” he said. “I went from 120 horses to about 80, 85. I’ve talked to Todd for like two years, but the timing had to be right and we’ve been together for the last 14 months.”

“I went and saw Big Brown win the 2008 Kentucky Derby and had a great time but I told my wife (Maria) that I’ll never go there again unless I had a horse for the race,” he said. “I got my fingers crossed that somehow I’ll get there in 2011.”

But before thoughts of Roses or the Derby, Repole has to end an 0-for-26 record he owns in graded races.

“It’s got to end soon,” Repole said, whose orange and blue silks are the same colors of his favorite baseball team - the New York Mets. "If it does, we’ll have the biggest party in the world. If not, I’ll run home and have a Vitaminwater with some Vodka."

I still think after that crushing victory Mike enjoyed both vodka and his water.

[Glimmerglass]

Unveiled: 2011 137th Kentucky Derby Logo (May 7, 2011)

Unveiled: 2011 137th Kentucky Oaks logo (May 6, 2011)

[kcmel]

Frankel won the Dewhurst impressively today.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59376/frankel-fantastic-in-dewhurst-romp

[Drvmb1ggl3]

Not sure why Frankel is being discussed on a Kentucky Derby thread. He will be at Newmarket on the first Sat of May next year, no where near Churchill Downs.

He is a whole lot of horse though… here’s his Dewhurst win today.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;5162301]
Not sure why Frankel is being discussed on a Kentucky Derby thread. He will be at Newmarket on the first Sat of May next year, no where near Churchill Downs.[/QUOTE]

It was a lovely win by Frankel in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. Positioned in the middle of the track he just kept charging ahead. He was only mentioned by Churchill’s John Asher in his column likely as a scouting report of the best 2-yr olds on the horizon. CD is always wishing/hoping the best of Europe can get romanced into shipping a top prospect across the pond.

[Glimmerglass]

From the Breeders’ Cup it was fairly obvious that Uncle Mo is the early Derby favorite. So too thinks Vegas:

Wynn Futures for Nov 9, 2010 - Uncle Mo listed at a rock bottom 6-1; while Stay Thirsty is at 50-1

The next nearest horse with Wynn is @ 20-1 for “To Honor and Serve” (winner of the $150,000 Nashua Stakes-G2 last week); then Jess Jackson’s homebred runner “Astrology” (who won the $122,300, G3 Iroquois at Churchill in late October) at 35-1 from there is 50-1 and up.

[Glimmerglass]

I would remiss if I failed to mention Nick Zito’s promising runner - Dialed In. He was cited elsewhere on this board for his maiden effort. Nick is already talking Derby about him. DRF 11-15-2010 “Dialed In impresses in troubled debut”

Dialed In, a 2-year-old by Mineshaft, made a highly impressive career debut Friday at Churchill Downs, winning despite all sorts of trouble and leading Zito to think aloud about a third Derby win, following Strike the Gold (1991) and Go for Gin (1994).

“He’s a horse that’s got a future,” said Zito, who soon will send Dialed In to the Palm Meadows training center in south Florida, where he has his best horses every winter.

Owned by long time Zito client Robert LaPenta he was a $475,000 yearling purchase, earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure after finishing in 1:17.77

“He is so big and he was not ready to run” earlier in the year, Zito said. “If he is good enough, he will get his chances.”

Race replay - Dialed In at Churchill Downs

[findeight]

Just wanted to say welcome back Glimmer.
Missed you and your handicaping skills.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Thanks for posting the Dialed In vid, Glimmer!

[Glimmerglass]

A horse with a name that IMHO shouldn’t be allowed by the Jockey Club has just quickly vaulted up near the top of graded earnings and assured a KY Derby gate: Gourmet Dinner won the $1M Delta Jackpot Grade 3 at Delta Downs.

Most money flowed to NY-shipper Bug Juice before the race, who previously romped by a combined 17 lengths in a pair of New York-bred stakes, but 2-yr old unchecked speed and no prior bull ring experience did him in.

Gourmet Dinner was shocking dismissed in wagering and went off at 20-1. Thats down right bizarre as he was a strong winner of two legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes at Calder. In fact the Florida papers assumed he’d go off as the favorite in ‘the Jackpot’ Example from Ocala - “Gourmet Dinner favored today” - so a lot of cashing of tickets at Calder. In fact the 48-1 2nd place horse too was the other Calder shipper. Folks those are $750+ exacta pay offs for the $2 hunch play.

Let’s hope ‘Dinner’ isn’t going to be the next Birdbirdistheword.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Liked GD (that’s almost as bad an abbreviation as saying the full name ) when I caught him in earlier races at Calder. No respect!

Hope this thread sticks around until May 2011 for reference!

[Glimmerglass]

Some doubt on the Delta Jackpot winner even being pointed towards the Derby trail: DRF 11-20-2010 “Gourmet Dinner responds to addition of blinkers in Delta Jackpot”

The equipment change, by the way, was fully noted in advance of the race

Gourmet Dinner earned $600,000 for his win.

“I don’t know if he wants to run a mile and a quarter,” [Trainer Steve Standridge] said of the distance of the Kentucky Derby. "But he’s got enough graded earnings to go in the Derby, so that’s certainly in the back of our minds. But we’re not going to look that far ahead. "

Interesting - Derby fever not taking root

[Glimmerglass]

Props to Mike Repole for this act of charity. DRF 11-22-2010 “Uncle Mo, Repole give back”

Mike Repole, the owner of undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo, has donated $50,000 of the colt’s earnings to five organizations that care for retired racehorses, the owner announced in a whimsical release on Monday that quoted the horse.

“I’ve always been taught to respect my elders and help others less fortunate than me,” Uncle Mo was quoted as saying.

The beneficiaries

… will be donated to Old Friends, Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation, Turning For Home, Akindale Thoroughbred Rescue, and The Exceller Fund.