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Kentucky Derby 2011

Racing
#21

A few graded prep races of late:

Video -> Grade 2 $200,000 Remsen Stakes taken gate to wire by To Honor and Serve - a 3/5 favorite; a previously mention “could be Derby contender” Mucho Macho Man wasn’t a threat in the final stretch.

To Honor and Serve looks good as previously took convincingly the Grade 2 $150,000 Nashua in early November. So he’s building up good graded stakes money along the way and has stamped himself a solid Kentucky Derby contender.

Quick note on the connections of ‘To Honor and Serve’: Trainer: Bill Mott; Jockey: John Velazquez; Owner: Live Oak Plantation

At Churchill on Nov 27th (video replay ->)Santiva won the Grade 2 $165,000 Kentucky Jockey Club S. which is held at 1 1/16 mile. It was a three way dash with Astrology and Major Gain. Ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan the Giant’s Causeway son is owned by Tom Walters and trained by Eddie Kenneally. Santiva, will now winter in Florida, had previously finished 2nd in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

#22

Kentucky Derby 2011

Here’s a great source for Kentucky Derby contender info - at horse racing nation they have rankings for the top 250 Derby contenders, plus video replays of their last race on their 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders page - http://www.horseracingnation.com/polls/current/kentucky_derby_2011_contenders

Uncle Mo is ranked #1, followed by Boys at Tosconova and Santiva. They have To Honor and Serve, who I like, ranked all the way back in fourth. But it’s great for finding lesser known horses, like Anthony’s Cross, a Churchill maiden winner that I like - who is listed in 44th.

#23

NYRA just posted on youtube the replay of a “one to watch” runner whose sire I was a fan of during his Derby chase :wink: Read The Contract (by Read the Footnotes) had a terrible Saratoga maiden start whereby he dumped his jockey in the post parade and the race wasn’t much better. He finished way off the board. With time off a little maturity goes a long way

Replay: 11-26-10 Aqueduct Race 7 @ 6 Furlongs Maiden Special Weight Purse $40,000

Notable is that the final time of 1:10.35 yielded, per NYRA, a Beyer Speed Figure of 98, seventh highest among 2-year-olds so far in 2010.

#24

Read the Contract

Agree - was a very nice race. Beat NY-breds, but impressive race on video and 98 Beyer figure is definitely impressive.

#25

Brethren, a half-brother to Super Saver [a bit of a blah KY Derby winner if there was one], looks like a decent contender. Although I’m not exactly fawning over him. Just a couple of workman like efforts and of course big connections with the trainer, jockey and owner. TB Times Dec 16, 2010

Brethren closed from off the pace with a sweeping five-wide bid entering the stretch at Churchill on November 27. He covered one mile on a track rated as fast in 1:36.78 to win by 1 3/4 lengths despite breaking from the outside post in a nine-horse field. The Churchill allowance win was his second from as many starts.

“He came out of it in excellent shape. I thought that was a big effort from him from an outside post,” Pletcher said. “He veered out a little bit at the start but was able to put himself in a good position and kicked on turning for home. All in all, I though it was a pretty impressive race.”

Per Pletcher the colt will likely have a two race prep plan if he makes it to the Derby for WinStar Farm. Their homebred is out of the winning A.P. Indy mare Supercharger, a full sister to three graded stakes winners.

“A race like the Sam F. Davis [Stakes (G3) on February 12 at Tampa Bay Downs] might be a good starting point for him, according to how his training goes. We’ll talk to Elliott [Walden of owner WinStar Farm] and we’ll come up with a plan,” Pletcher said.

youtube Race Replay - CD 11-27-2010 Race 11

youtube Maiden race replay: Belmont 10-16-2010 Race 2

What is very surprising - but hey my hat goes off to them - is that Gourmet Dinner isn’t done in 2010. Already one of the richest 2-yr olds with his purse from the Delta Jackpot and earnings from Tampa … he’s gone west to see if he can not only add to the loot with another mega prize and maybe pick up a Grade 1 win by defeating a few good challengers out there.

he Delta Jackpot victory gave Gourmet Dinner more than enough earnings to qualify for next spring’s Kentucky Derby, but there’s more potential riches to plunder before this year is out. Gourmet Dinner was sent west to Hollywood Park by owner Bill Terrill and trainer Steve Standridge for the Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity on Saturday.

“He came out of his last race great, and we felt like he was going to be one of the top choices in a Grade 1 race, so we had to do it,” Standridge said Thursday morning.

#26

[QUOTE=lone speed;5266006]
Agree - was a very nice race. Beat NY-breds, but impressive race on video and 98 Beyer figure is definitely impressive.[/QUOTE]

Violette may have a tough time keeping this one together. His action is really wild. I imagine sprinting will be his game. Re: that HR Nation site, it’s nice that they have a list like that but too bad it isn’t better maintained. Lots of outdated info so not very reliable for most purposes.

#27

I like the Victory Gallop son, Jaycito.

#28

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5287257]
Gourmet Dinner isn’t done in 2010. . … he’s gone west to see if he can not only add to the loot with another mega prize and maybe pick up a Grade 1 win by defeating a few good challengers out there.[/QUOTE]

Well that was largely a bust. Video: 30th Grade 1, $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on December 18, 2010

Gourmet Dinner finished 4th in the race. Comma to the Top with Corey Nakatani up took the win (note, of course, that’s on synthetic) but not with out some ruffled feathers.

The race took place under the lights on a cold, rainy night, 25 minutes after its scheduled start. Comma to the Top was the cause of the delay. He lost his right hind shoe while walking over from the receiving barn, and then needed two farriers and a phone call from another trainer to get the shoe attached.

The first person entrusted with replacing the shoe was injured while appearing to be unsure of himself. “He was not going to be able to replace the shoe,” said Miller, who briefly tried to do the work himself before soberly realizing he was not suited to the task.

During the delay, Miller received a phone call from trainer Neil Drysdale, who did not have a horse in the race, but informed Miller that noted blacksmith Wes Champagne was at the races. Champagne rode to the rescue. He came to the paddock and attached a new right hind shoe on Comma to the Top, who by now was visibly upset.

Several trainers and owners were annoyed with the delay.

Q: How many people does it take to change a shoe? :wink:

#29

BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin had this Jan 5, 2011 list some horses to watch for:

(This is an abridged listing from his scouting report. Click link above for Steve’s comments, et al)

ALTERNATION – Rating: 6.

ARCHARCHARCH – Rating: 5.

ASTROLOGY – Rating: 7.

AWESOME PATRIOT – Rating: 7.

BEAMER – Rating: 4.5.

BIONDETTI – Rating: 6.

BLACK N BEAUTY – Rating: 6.

BOYS AT TOSCONOVA – Rating: 7.5.

BRETHREN – Rating: 7

BUFFUM – Rating: 5

CASPER’S TOUCH – Rating: 6.

CLUBHOUSE RIDE – Rating: 5.

COIL – Rating: 4.5.

COMMA TO THE TOP – Rating: 7

COOL BLUE RED HOT – Rating: 5

CROSSBOW – Rating: 4.5.

DECISIVE MOMENT – Rating: 4

DIALED IN – Rating: 5

EL GRAYLING – Rating: 5.

ELITE ALEX – Rating: 5.

FREE POURIN – Rating: 4.

GOURMET DINNER – Rating: 6.

HERP – Rating: 5.

JAYCITO – Rating: 6.

J. B.'s THUNDER – Rating: 6 (if the BC was a fluke) 3 (if that’s as good as he is on dirt). Note he’s off the Derby trail - Per Al Stall Jan 8, 2010

J P’s GUSTO – Rating: 7.

JUSTIN PHILLIP – Rating: 6.

LAUBURU – Rating: 5.

LEAVE OF ABSENCE – Rating: 6

MACHEN – Rating: 5.

MAJOR GAIN – Rating: 6.

MANICERO – Rating: 5.

MONZON – Rating: 6.

MOUNTAIN TOWN – Rating: 7 (ex Marylou Whitney horse claimed for $75k in his debut)

MUCHO MACHO MAN – Rating: 7.

PREMIER PEGASUS – Rating: 5.

RIVETING REASON – Rating: 5

ROCKING OUT – Rating: 5.

ROGUE ROMANCE – Rating: 7.

RUSTLER HUSTLER – Rating: 6.

SANTIVA – Rating: 7.

SHACKLEFORD – Rating: 4

SHADOW WARRIOR – Rating: 6.

SHERRIFF COGBURN – Rating: 4.

SINAI – Rating: 4.

SMASH – Rating: 4.

SOLDAT – Rating: 5

SOVEREIGN DEFAULT – Rating: 4.

STAY THIRSTY – Rating: 7.5.

SWAY AWAY – Rating: 5.

SWEET DUCKY – Rating: 6.

TAPIZAR – Rating: 7

THE FACTOR – Rating: 6.5

THIRTYFIRSTSTREET – Rating: 5.

TIZ BLESSED – Rating: 5.

TO HONOR AND SERVE – Rating: 8.

UNCLE MO – Rating: 9.

UNCLE SAM – Rating: 6.5.

WILLCOX INN – Rating: 5

WINE POLICE – Rating: 5.

ZAYDA – Rating: 5.

#30

I love Uncle Mo, but have some concern about his ability to remain sound during the Derby trail.

#31

HERP is off the Derby Trail with a sesamoid injury.

#32

At the moment my two Derby horses are Dialed In, and a horse that just had his first start at Gulfstream yesterday named Ari C. Both only have one start and one win to their names, but both are very, very impressive.

#33

[QUOTE=Galileo1998;5358281]
At the moment my two Derby horses are Dialed In, and a horse that just had his first start at Gulfstream yesterday named Ari C.[/QUOTE]

I was duly impressed with an effort Saturday at Gulfstream Park as well (Jan 15, 2011) - a Maiden Special Weight (Race 5) won by Heron Lake, owned by Robert LaPenta, trained by Nick Zito and ridden by Julien Leparoux.

The more remarkable aspect of the maiden start and win was that Heron Lake was challenged in the stretch, made eye contact with a rival (Pletcher trained, Michael Tabor owned, Hammersmith) and then jetted off. That’s what I want to see when it comes to having some desire and talent.

Details and link to replay

#34

Worth noting a couple of promising Derby potentials are running tomorrow: Gulfstream Park Friday January 21, 2011 Race 9 at 1 & 1/8 miles

$51,000 purse, For Three Year Olds Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races.

Nick Zito’s impressive last-time trainee Dialed In with Julien up @ PP #2

Kiaran McLaughlin’s trainee Soldat who was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up is @ PP #3 with Alan Garcia up. Should Soldat do well on the dirt then the plan is the Fountain of Youth next.

#35

Next weekend’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream is seemingly doing what MID hoped it would - boost the field size and attract quality runners.

As one of the required races to win in order to quality for the $5.5 million bonus (which requires winning The Preakness) it hopefully will do the same with the races which are alternative paths to the money.

DRF Jan 20, 2011

The Holy Bull is shaping up to be the best 3-year-old race to date in 2011. A field of eight to 10 is expected, topped by Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Boys at Tosconova, Delta Jackpot winner Gourmet Dinner, Nashua and Remsen runner-up Mucho Macho Man, Black N Beauty, and several others from among a group that includes Casper’s Touch, Reprized Halo, Sweet Ducky, Shadow Warrior, Leave of Absence, Printing Press, and Rescind the Offer, according to racing secretary Dan Bork.

#36

Hm … a touch o’ the ol’ Slew.
:wink:

#37

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5371630]
Worth noting a couple of promising Derby potentials are running tomorrow: Gulfstream Park Friday Race 9 at 1 & 1/8 miles. Nick Zito’s impressive last-time trainee Dialed In with Julien up @ PP #2

Kiaran McLaughlin’s trainee Soldat who was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up is @ PP #3 with Alan Garcia up.[/QUOTE]

Dialed In scratched due to the sloppy track. Soldat stayed in and crushed the field in the stretch winning by 7+ lengths. Looks like we know he’ll be going to the Fountain of Youth!

So he likes the turf, dirt, slop, can rate, is fine with 2 turns, and distance with 1 1/8 being no problemo.

3rd in that race was Beamer who was pouring it on late and worth a mention. He has familiar Derby connections: Carl Nafzger trained and owned by Jim Tafel (read: Street Sense). Previously he broke his maiden in his last over at Tampa Bay Downs by destroyed a group of $20,000 maiden special weight horses by 5 ½ lengths.

The Pletcher trained and Tabor/Magnier/Smith/Scatuorchio owned Lauburu even with Johnny V. up proved to be no mudder :wink:

#38

And now really adding further interest in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes: Nick Zito will put Dialed In that race following today’s scratch.

“I just couldn’t take a chance on running him over this racetrack not knowing whether he would handle it or not,” Zito said. “Julien wants to stay with this horse and fortunately is available for the Holy Bull, so we’ll just wait until next week and try him there.”

2nd career start against the likes of Boys At Tosconova, Mucho Macho Man, and Gourmet Dinner? Ouch.

#39

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5374608]
And now really adding further interest in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes: Nick Zito will put Dialed In that race following today’s scratch.

2nd career start against the likes of Boys At Tosconova, Mucho Macho Man, and Gourmet Dinner? Ouch.[/QUOTE]

Yeah. Nick just sometimes hears different music than the rest of us.

It would be so cool to see Mr. Nafzger get back to the Derby with a good horse. Wonder if it could be Beamer?

#40

Confirmed with Soldat - whose victory on Friday was by 10 3/4 lengths - and his next start:

Soldat, who was ridden by Alan Garcia, received a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his second career victory on Friday, 18 points higher than the number he got for his second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup.

McLaughlin said he would definitely target the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Fountain of Youth here on Feb. 26 for Soldat’s next start.

The graded stakes win by Neil Howard trained Wilkinson in Saturday’s $75,000, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds was ‘ok’ although a small field so its hard to read.

New York shipper ‘Pants On Fire’ was eclipsed by Wikinson in the final yards to lose by a head. The wagering favorite, Justin Philip, who received more attention because he took his last win in a highly erratic run was a non factor. He faded in the lane to finish last of five.

youtube video: Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes

Other runners on the radar for the Kentucky Derby:

Brethren, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver’s little brother, is still a few breezes away from his 3-year-old debut.

“His first start will most likely come in the Sam Davis at Tampa,” said Pletcher, referring to the Grade 3 stakes on Feb. 12. “We’re looking for some graded earnings, have had luck there in the past, and I like the one-turn mile and one-sixteenth. It’s just more attractive than bringing him back at a mile and one-eighth.”

Pluck was transferred from Pletcher to trainer Graham Motion’s barn following his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. He’s unlikely to get into the TC chase but who knows. Based in Palm Meadows now for the winter he’s put in a couple of decent works.

Mountain Town, the cited ex Marylou Whitney horse who was claimed as an $80k optional in his maiden start, now with Rick Dutrow is uncertain with a next start. Also based at Palm Meadows, the runner-up to Uncle Mo in the Grade 1 Champagne in his second career start, has been putting in a few works.

Trainer Rick Dutrow said he decided he would rather not stretch out the former claimer around two turns at the present time. Mountain Town has been training forwardly over the past month, most recently working six furlongs in 1:11.02 here on Jan. 5.

As for Uncle Mo he’s scheduled to have his first work of the year soon as he prepares to make his 2011 debut in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 12.

Just my opinion, but that’s a rather long off a long layoff.

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