One less runner in Sunday’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes, but a big one:
DRF 1-26-11 Boys At Tosconova to miss Holy Bull"
Dutrow said Boys at Tosconova “wasn’t showing his usual high energy” at the present time, and as a result the trainer didn’t want to rush him into the race.
I’m sure Nick Zito let out a sigh of relief!
I’m going to the Derby for the first time this year. I still haven’t purchases my ticket. Can anyone give me some insight into different places to sit? I don’t want to break the bank for tickets, but I can’t do General Admission either. Help!
Despite shrinking purses across the board for horse racing the graded monies banked by potential KD starters by this time in January are significantly higher then ever before.
In 2010 the cut off for #20 (Zito’s Jackson Bend) with graded money of $230,000. The next horse with $225k didn’t make the cut.
DRF as of Jan 21 2011 - graded earnings
(only the top 30 are illustrated and no fillies have been included)
Colts and Geldings
1 Uncle Mo* Todd Pletcher $1,260,000
2 Pluck* Todd Pletcher $685,440
3 Gourmet Dinner* Steven Standridge $660,000
4 Boys At Tosconova* Richard Dutrow, Jr. $532,060
5 Comma to the Top* Peter Miller $444,000
6 Biondetti* Mahmood Al Zarooni $308,023
7 Soldat* Kiaran McLaughlin $270,000
8 Rogue Romance* Kenneth McPeek $258,000
9 Clubhouse Ride* Craig Lewis $210,000
10 To Honor and Serve* William Mott $210,000
11 Jaycito* Mike Mitchell $200,000
12 Decisive Moment* Juan Arias $200,000
13 Santiva* Eddie Kenneally $180,254
14 Madman Diaries* Wesley Ward $150,000
15 Blue Laser* Mark Casse $143,502
16 Willcox Inn* Michael Stidham $139,000
17 Maybesomaybenot* Michael Maker $111,196
18 Stay Thirsty* Todd Pletcher $110,000
19 Astrology* Steven Asmussen $105,893
20 Lou Brissie* Neil Howard $99,043
21 Riveting Reason* Myung Cho $97,500
22 Air Support* Claude McGaughey III $95,000
23 Rockin Heat* Reade Baker $92,981
24 Major Gain* Wayne Catalano $86,370
25 Mountain Town* Richard Dutrow, Jr. $80,000
26 Mucho Macho Man* Katherine Ritvo $70,000
27 Wilkinson* Neil Howard $60,000
28 Tapizar* Steven Asmussen $60,000
29 Premier Pegasus* Myung Cho $60,000
30 Western Mood* Jerry Hollendorfer $43,000
* Denotes possible supplemental nomination, which is the default notation until the TC nomination list is released
If not already nominated (and a very small fee paid) then a significant supplemental fee would have to be paid and for that no assurances exists of getting in. A previously nominated horse (with the same graded earnings as a would-be but not yet nominated horse) will always trump a late nomination
DRF 1-27-11: “Uncle Mo, Awesome Feather top Experimental Free Handicap”
The Jockey Club announced Thursday morning that Uncle Mo has been assigned 128 pounds atop the Experimental Free Handicap for colts and geldings of 2010, marking the highest impost in 13 years.
The 128 pounds for Uncle Mo, the divisional Eclipse Award winner and the early favorite for the 137th Kentucky Derby on May 7, is the same as what was assigned to Favorite Trick in 1997, when he was named Horse of the Year.
The highest weight ever assigned a 2-year-old in the Experimental was 132 pounds to Count Fleet, winner of the 1943 Triple Crown.
Following Uncle Mo atop the 2010 Experimental list are To Honor and Serve (123), Boys At Tosconova (122), Comma to the Top (121), and Pluck (121). Next after Awesome Feather among the fillies are More Than Real (120), Turbulent Descent (120), A Z Warrior (119), and R Heat Lightning (119).
There were 99 males and 92 fillies weighted for 2010. To be eligible, a 2-year-old had to finish fourth or better in graded or non-restricted races in the United States with a value of at least $75,000.
The last Experimental highweight to win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense, who led the 2006 list before capturing the Derby the following spring. Last year, the co-highweights atop the Experimental were Lookin At Lucky and Vale of York with 126 pounds each.
Mike Watchmaker at the DRF has his early top 20 contenders for Jan 27, 2011 with odds:
Here are his top 11 (click the above to see the whole list)
1 - Uncle Mo (7-2)
2 - To Honor and Serve (5-1)
3 - Comma To The Top (10-1)
4 - Tapizar (12-1)
5 - Boys At Tosconova (15-1)
6 - Brethren (20-1)
7 - Jaycito (20-1)
8 - Mucho Macho Man (20-1)
9 - Sanitva (20-1)
10 - Astrology (25-1)
11 - Gourmet Dinner (25-1)
The field for Sunday’s $400,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park - on HRTV
Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 3) at 1 Mile
Post Time: 5:26 pm EST
PP HORSE <> JOCKEY
1 Gourmet Dinner <> S. Madrid
2 Major Gain <> J. Castellano
3 Printing Press <> E. Trujillo
4 Black N Beauty <> K. Desormeaux
5 Ribo Bobo <> E. Prado
6 Leave of Absence <> R. Maragh
7 Mucho Macho Man <> E. Coa
8 Sweet Ducky <> J. Bravo
9 Dialed In <> J. Leparoux
Andy Beyer (don’t yell at me) has some interesting and uncharacteristically enthusiastic speculation about the three-year olds. Check it out.
I thought Andy Beyer’s observations were pretty conservative if not safe. Churchill Down’s John Asher has his Top 10 for Jan 26 which has some names not cited before:
Abridged with trainer
- To Honor and Serve – Bill Mott
[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5387418]
The field for Sunday’s $400,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park - on HRTV[/QUOTE]
Wow. Wow
I had some doubts with Nick Zito’s Dialed In making only his 2nd lifetime start in the Grade 3 against the likes of Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man. It was made all the more worse when he gave up fifteen lengths to the field in the start.
That said we know Julien Leparoux has his Derby horse! They sliced up the rail and off the turn went into the middle of the track and inhaled the field. Julien was already celebrating a few strides before the wire with some well-deserved pats to Dial In. They won by 2-lengths having been geared down.
Very impressive for such a green horse to be in such a hole early and then put it together. Uncle Mo should be scared 
2nd was Sweet Ducky, 3rd was Gourmet Dinner. The latter is the real deal for the Derby.
Wow, just wow. What a horse!
Uncle Mo should be scared
:lol:
Had to repost my November thread after Dialed In’s maiden win - he’s a monster!
And Gourmet Dinner - he’s such a pro at this point in time after all his starts. A workhorse indeed and a very solid 3rd today.
Comments from Nick Zito’s on his trainee Dialed In’s impressive victory:
“What a horse!,” Zito exclaimed. “I’ve never had a horse do this. Break his maiden and then go into a stakes race like the Holy Bull and do what he did. To do something like that is very special.”
Zito said he plans to take things nice and slow as Dialed In proceeds along the Derby trail.
“I’m going to put this in proper perspective this time,” said Zito. “We came so close with Ice Box last year. Now that we know we’re going to get there this year we’ll just take a cool, calm approach before deciding what to do next. Hopefully there will be no bumps in the road…”
By winning the Holy Bull, Dialed In also became eligible for the Preakness 5.5 bonus which would award him a $5.5 million bonus if he can win the Grade 1 Florida Derby here on April 3 and then the Preakness on May 21.
He has $240k now in graded earnings which would vault him to 9th on the graded list.
youtube/gulfstream: 2011 Holy Bull Stakes $400k, Grade 3 @ 1 mi
Another resource that is worth taking a look at:
Gary West Dallas Star-Telegram Jan 29, 2011 “Triple Crown noisemakers: the top 100”
Props to Gary for making a list up of 100 worth candidates for the road to Louisville.
Also on today’s worth mentioning victors: Machen the Neil Howard trained runner at Fair Grounds making his 2nd career start. It was damn solid in good race time. He’ll likely go the Oaklawn route with the Risen Star, et al to get to Kentucky.
youtube: replay 1-30-11 Fair Grounds Race 5 @ 1 mi 7-yards
Keep an eye on him too
Machen did everything wrong, and still won that race at FG easily. Granted, he wasn’t beating what Dialed In beat (Sweet Ducky and Gourmet Dinner actually ran very good races, IMO). But, like Dialed In, Machen has a lot to learn, beginning with getting out of the gate at approximately the same time as the rest of the field (spotting the field a few lengths is getting to be a habit).
Howard is a very cautious trainer, which I love, and if he needs to step back and take some time with this colt, he will.
All of which is a long way of saying, don’t be surprised if Machen becomes a summer-fall “star”.
Dialed In earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Uncle Mo just officially worked out first time in 2011 - 3 furlongs in 39.80 which is all that Todd was looking for. Although early reports are that the connections are hoping he remains as good as “he was” not necessarily that he gets any better. Again they should be concerned with a late 2011 start with racing again.
His stablemate Stay Thirst is being pointed to make his debut also relatively late - the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 5. This will be the 58th running of the Grade 3 Gotham at the Big A for $250,000 1 1/16 Mile. Stay Thirsty is presently ranked 20th in graded earnings (1/31/11) with $110,000.
The top 10-graded chart as noted after Dialed In’s effort vaulted him from nowhere to being 9th. It also bumped up the hardest working runner of this class that I can see - Gourmet Dinner - from 3rd to 2nd.
Revised 1-31-11 Graded Stakes earnings chart - top 10 excerpted
(list particular excludes fillies)
Horse Trainer Earnings
1 Uncle Mo <> Todd Pletcher $1,260,000
2 Gourmet Dinner <> Steven Standridge $700,000
3 Pluck <> Todd Pletcher $685,440
4 Boys At Tosconova <> Richard Dutrow, Jr. $532,060
5 Comma to the Top <>Peter Miller $444,000
6 Biondett <> Mahmood Al Zarooni $308,023
7 Soldat <> Kiaran McLaughlin $270,000
8 Rogue Romance <> Kenneth McPeek $258,000
9 Dialed In <> Nicholas Zito $240,000
10 Clubhouse Ride <> Craig Lewis $210,000
More resources:
Jan 31, 2011 Courier Journal’s Top 100 list as well
Jan 31 2011 Media Poll (Courier Journal) with multiple media sportswriters giving their rankings.
An interesting top 12 Derby contender list from BloodHorse’s Steve Haskin for Feb 1, 2011. The list intentionally is made up of unknowns. Although I cannot say that Machen really fits that bill.
For this week only I’m going to pick a second Derby Dozen, made up of lesser-known, mostly non-stakes horses who have looked impressive, and see how these horses stack up against the Top 12 come the first Saturday in May. Call them the Future Book Potential Overlays And Only Value Horses. These horses will be discussed in detail in the weeks to come.
The list is as follows: 1) Casper’s Touch, 2) Elite Alex, 3) Alternation, 4) Awesome Patriot, 5) Washington’s Rules, 6) Rustler Hustler, 7) Tiz Blessed, 8) Sway Away, 9) Machen, 10) Crossbow, 11) Beamer, 12) Heron Lake.
Haskin’s “traditional” Derby Dozen for 1-31-11 - here
As expected the list has Uncle Mo at the top and is filled with no surprises save for #12 being Stantiva
Something you don’t see often:
“Please take your maybe-a-derby-contender and leave my barn” 
DRF 2-4-2011 “J P’s Gusto moves to Petalino’s barn at Oaklawn”
[trainer] Hofmans asked [owner] Waken to remove J P’s Gusto and another horse from his barn on Thursday.
Hofmans said he initiated the change after expressing discontent earlier in the week about a decision by owner John Waken and his racing manager, Steve Bajer, to start J P’s Gusto in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 21 as well as an increased role by Bajer in race planning.
Hofmans had hoped to start J P’s Gusto in the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita on Feb. 20.
The horse will now be trained by Joe Petalino in Arkansas and based at Oaklawn.
Brad Free of the DRF picked up on a comment (and longer range non-entry action) regarding the Bob Baffert trainee The Factor and maybe bypassing the Derby trail:
The fastest 3-year-old in California is off the Santa Anita Derby list. The Factor set a track record Dec. 26, when he ran six furlongs in 1:06.98, but the Baffert-trained colt did not have a published work for at least three weeks following a five-furlong breeze Jan. 9. A recent comment by Baffert regarding The Factor and the Kentucky Derby suggested the colt may point in a different direction. “I will not fry him to make the Derby,” Baffert said.
Steve Haskin suggests that tomorrow (Sat Feb 5) will have a couple of races with Derby trail implications including a start by Casper’s Touch (Mike Maker trained, Julien Leparoux ridden) in a 1 1/8 mi race.
did anyone else catch Cal Nation’s debut today. 1:22 first time out going 7/8ths and being a half to bluegrass cat, he’s got the pedigree to be the real deal. Impressed me.
The Preakness 5.5 bonus scheme clearly is having an impact as there are 16-nominations for next weekend’s Grade 3 $200,000 El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields Feb. 12th.
GGF press release: Comma to the Top heads roster of nominees
The owners of horses in this year’s El Camino Real Derby will have a shot at the new “Preakness 5.5” bonus, which will award any horse that wins the El Camino Real Derby, Santa Anita Derby and Preakness Stakes with a $5.5 million bonus – $5 million for the owners and $500,000 for the trainer.
(The above combination is one of a few different ways to win the bonus.)
Both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes tv contracts with NBC and ABC, respectively, expired in 2010. Despite the TC fast approaching neither leg of the series has been signed to the network. NBC has expressed a strong interest in broadcasting all three again. The now Comcast owned entity (while still under GE ownership) beat back an unexpectedly tough bid from Fox for the Kentucky Derby for 2011.
With the Preakness 5.5 bonus out there - and very possibly a contender for the bonus not winning the Derby - there are motivations to add the 2nd leg more so then before. ABC hasn’t brought too much to the table for NYRA in the last couple of years, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they renewed with them again. Thus depriving viewers from one network having all.
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