Kentucky Derby 2011

[Glimmerglass]

Sunday (3/27) is the fat pursed G3 Sunland Derby in New Mexico.

A field of 11 was drawn and with $800,000 up for grabs the Grade 3 race it likely will vault in a new player to the Derby.

Worth noting is the fact that Julien Leparoux will ride Astrology, the Jess Jackson owned and current ML favorite for Steve Asmussen. It’s notable because Julien will be riding in Saturday evening’s Dubai World Cup - aboard Fly Down.

All are assigned 122-lbs

PP. Horse, Jockey, Trainer, ML Odds

1. Ruler On Ice (KY), J Valdivia Jr., K J Breen, 8/1
2. R Skydiver (CA), A Medellin, H Dominguez, 12/1
3. Fusa Code (KY), J Shepherd, S M Asmussen, 8/1
4. It’s My Party (KY), J M Bourdieu, C A Hartman, 12/1
5. Behold de Buy (KY), K S Tohill, J Salisbury, 12/1
6. Supreme Ruler (KY), J K Court, W H Fires, 20/1
7. Sinai (KY), M Garcia, B Baffert, 6/1
8. Nacho Saint (KY), J Bravo, K J Breen, 7/2
9. Twice the Appeal (KY), C Santiago Reyes, J Bonde, 15/1
10. Beer Meister (KY), G W Corbett, M Ortiz Sr., 15/1
11. Astrology (KY), J R Leparoux, S M Asmussen, 5/2
    Blinkers On: Sinai

TVG I believe is airing the race live at 5:45 p.m. MTN.

[Glimmerglass]

The thought, even if remote, with potentially for Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov being at the Kentucky Derby with a starter is pretty sickening. He now owns Sweet Ducky - transferred to trainer Herman Brown - who is Dubai for the $2 million UAE Derby (Group 2) but might return to the States for the Derby.

A win in the race, run over 1,900 metres (about 1 3/16 miles), would translate to $1.2 million graded earnings. Already with $120,000 in graded earnings from his second in the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream and a fourth in the Delta Jackpot (G3), a finish of fourth or better in the UAE Derby would give the son of Pulpit at least $220,000, near assured of a spot in the field if they enter.

Saturday (Mar 26th) Derby prep race from Turfway Park the 40th Edition of the Grade 3 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes has a full field of 12 running on the polytrack surface. TVG will air the race at approx 5:30 pm EST, but worth noting the DRF.com is going to also provide free on-line streaming too.

The distance: 1 1/8 mi; winner takes $300k which has been (compared to recent years) enough to get into the KY Derby, if nominated.

Post Postion. Horse, Jockey, ML Odds

1. Preachintothedevil, J.Alvarado, 15-1
2. Positive Response, J.Couton, 3-1
3. Thirtyfirststreet, K.Carmouche, 12-1
4. Animal Kingdom, A.Garcia, 5-1
5. Son of Posse, R.MojicaJr., 50-1
6. Rescind the Trade, J.ValdiviaJr., 12-1
7. Beachcombing, L.Goncalves, 12-1
8. King Congie, J.Castellano, 4-1
9. Taptowne, R.Prescott, 20-1
10. Decisive Moment, K.Clark, 5-1

[dressagetraks]

Just got given a ticket to the Arkansas Derby. Who all is on that trail this year? I know the Factor and Elite Alex. Any others look interesting? I loved Afleet Alex, so I’d really like to see his son do well. (Such objective handicapping techniques, I know.)

Alas, no Zenyatta. Wish I could have done Hot Springs last year to see the Apple Blossom. Still, it should be fun! :yes:

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=dressagetraks;5504177]
Just got given a ticket to the Arkansas Derby. Who all is on that trail this year? I know the Factor and Elite Alex. Any others look interesting?[/QUOTE]

$1M Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, April 16th @ 1 1/8 mi

Congrats as it should be a good race as the Oaklawn crowds are consistently large and enthusiastic. Elite Alex, however will be doing the “N’awlins” racing thing this weekend - although if he really wanted the best gumbo he’d be in Chicago - and unlikely to be in the Arkansas Derby too.

Some of the contenders likely there in the Arkansas Derby: Archarcharach, Brethern, Caleb’s Posse, J.P.'s Gusto, Stay Thirsty, Sway Away, and The Factor.

[Glimmerglass]

As noted before in this thread with Maclean’s Music’s sensational debut at Santa Anita the colt has a few interesting ties that could suggest continued strength. HRTV’s Jon White remarks that the name of the horse is in honor of Jess Jackson’s grandson Maclean, an eighth-grader who lives in Santa Rosa, Calif. Additionally:

Maclean’s Music’s sire, Distorted Humor, and dam, Forest Music, were both debut winners. Distorted Humor’s sire, Forty Niner, was a debut winner. Forest Music’s sire, Unbridled’s Song, also was a debut winner.

Distorted Humor is the sire of 2003 Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. Funny Cide was a 14 3/4-length debut winner. Distorted Humor also is the sire of Commentator, who recorded Beyer Speed Figures of 123, 121, 120 and 119 during his 24-race career. Commentator was a 10 1/2-length debut winner.

Forest Music made quite a splash when she won a six-furlong race in her debut by 8 1/2 lengths at Laurel in 2003. She earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. … . Forest Music did go on to become a Grade II winner.

Also noted by White is that Sway Away should get a pass on his last effort in the Rebel Stakes - due to losing a tooth just moments before the start. While another cited runner - Archarcharach - was only grazed and lost some hair from a kicking Alternation (who was then scratched after flipping in the gate) it was Sway Away who smashed his mouth on the gate after being spooked by the bad actor.

“Bonde said Sway Away, who had been standing good in the gate, lunged into his stall doors anticipating the break, likely knocking out his tooth. The horse then broke next to last.”

Rampellini quoted Bonde as saying: “I view it as a throw-out race. He wasn’t set and he got away bad.”

Sway Away, who recorded a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Vicente while making his first start since Aug. 8, regressed to an 87 in the Rebel. Bonde indicated the plan is for Sway Away to remain at Oaklawn Park and run in the $1 million, Grade I Arkansas Derby on April 16. Expect him to be potent force in that race regardless if The Factor is there or not.

[Glimmerglass]

Another off the Derby trail

Riving Reason is off the Derby trail with a “hoof injury” its unclear if he would’ve necessarily been a factor. As of today his graded monies ranked him 20th with $147,500.

[frugalannie]

Thanks, Glimmerglass

Tried to send you a PM, but your box is full. Just wanted to thank you for taking the time to keep me educated and updated on the racing scene and the road to Louisville in particular.

[Glimmerglass]

@Glimmerglass;5503210

The thought, even if remote, with potentially for Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov being at the Kentucky Derby with a starter is pretty sickening. He now owns Sweet Ducky - transferred to trainer Herman Brown - who is Dubai for the $2 million UAE Derby (Group 2) but might return to the States for the Derby.

Hopefully those plans to return for the KY Derby are dashed as Sweet Ducky pretty much bombed in the UAE Derby today finishing 2nd to last.

frugalannie - thanks!

[kewpalace]

[QUOTE=frugalannie;5508132]
Just wanted to thank you for taking the time to keep me educated and updated on the racing scene and the road to Louisville in particular.[/QUOTE]2nd this! I’ve watched racing since I was a kid and always the Triple Crown races. For the last few years I’ve started reading this board and am so appreciative of your time to help us uninformed get in the know. Makes racing much more fun than it already was. THANKS!!!

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5503210]
Saturday (Mar 26th) Derby prep race from Turfway Park the 40th Edition of the Grade 3 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes has a full field of 12 running on the polytrack surface.[/QUOTE]

Animal Kingdom for trainer Graham Motion with Alan Garcia up takes an impressive 2-length win and banked $300k towards the Derby in the process.

He’s never run on dirt before so going to Louisville for the First Saturday in May isn’t assured. He had to check hard, was dead last, passed the entire field very wide and had a challenge in the stretch but pulled away. All that adds up to horse that can deal with some roadblocks but win anyhow.

[Glimmerglass]

Video replay: $1M Louisiana Derby (G2) - score yet another for Anna Napravnik at Fair Grounds!

Pants On Fire prevailed by half a length over 36-1 Nehro with Mucho Macho Man finishing a close third. 4th goes to Elite Alex, 5th to Machen. A rather nifty $459 is what you got for the $2 wager on the exacta!

So in terms of graded money that’s: $600k (1st), $200k (2nd), $100k (3rd), $40k (4th), $20k (5th). Elite Alex will have to start again if he stands a shot at making a gate for the Kentucky Derby. Unless something odd happens its looks like Anna “Rosie” Napravnik has her Derby starter!

For Pants on Fire (trained by Kelly Breen, owned by George & Lori Hall) this is on top of the $23,000 in graded earnings he had banked already. Interesting it was Joe Bravo who was given first pick of the two Breen entries and he went with Nacho Business (finished 8th) and Anna got ‘Pants’.

Even with just the 2nd place its likely that Mucho Macho Man will go to the KY Derby and with him will be The Village People of YMCA fame and their song (Macho Man) for which the horse was so named.

[Glimmerglass]

Video replay: Turfway Park the 40th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (Grade 3)

Watch the comeback from dead last by Animal Kingdom.

Update on Mucho Macho Man in the Louisiana Derby: he raced sans one of his shoes and a bit of flesh!

Kathy Ritvo, the trainer of Mucho Macho Man, held the front shoe in her hand after the race. It was given to her by a member of the gate crew, who spotted it as soon as the horses left the gate. All the nails were still in it, and a piece of flesh was laying on it.

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5509464]
Video replay: Turfway Park the 40th Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (Grade 3)

Watch the comeback from dead last by Animal Kingdom.

Update on Mucho Macho Man in the Louisiana Derby: he raced sans one of his shoes and a bit of flesh![/QUOTE]

Any idea if he’ll have time enough for the hoof to heal? What an effort considering he was on three legs…

…although nice to see Rosie’s reward for another gutsy run and win, and then to hop back on, and bring home another long shot winner in the next race, coming from behind and taking the overland route to end up in front.

Yesterday was a fun day of race watching!!

(Also glad to see no wins for the Chechen - very upset that Team Valor sold him Gitano Hernando.)

[Glimmerglass]

Interestingly the Times-Picayune says that Pants on Fire was to the rabbit to stablemate Nacho Business. Evidently the rabbit had a lot more in the tank.

As assistant trainer Phil Threewitt put it: “We brought Pants On Fire here to be the rabbit, but the rabbit forgot to stop.”

So how was it riding a rabbit?

“He was a rabbit with a lot of heart,” said Napravnik, who finished the day with five winners. “They said he ran best on the lead. And he ran with as much heart as a horse can run down the lane. Mucho Macho Man came up next to us, and Pants just dug in and finished with all heart.”

Photo by Rusty Costanza: Napravnik, in the winners circle after riding Pants on Fire to victory in the 98th running of the Louisiana Derby.

Pants on Fire will be training up to the Kentucky Derby and will enter no more prep races. 23 yr old Rosie became the first female to win that almost century old Derby race, a $1M race at Fair Grounds, and also any riding title at the storied racetrack. She now will ride at Keeneland for the spring meet.

[Glimmerglass]

Eh, the winner of the $800k Grade 3 Sunland Derby will go to the Kentucky Derby but will he be respected any more then Mind That Bird (himself a Sunland runner) was? Not likely. Twice the Appeal at about 25-1 took the win. He was making his first graded stakes appearance and the win was his third from 10 career starts.

Video replay: Sunland Park Derby (New Mexico) March 27, 2011

So he racked up $400,000 in graded earnings for the effort which vaulted him all the way to 6th in the Kentucky Derby earnings rankings. He was ridden by Christian Santiago-Reyes for trainer Jeff Bonde.

The race wagering favorite Astrology with Julien Leparoux up (“fresh” from having flown from Dubai overnight) was a distant 2nd in a photo over Ruler On Ice. Astrology was making his three-year-old debut for trainer Steve Asmussen.

[Glimmerglass]

Revised Derby earnings list (3-27) which just for the sake of argument still includes Gourmet Dinner and also the recent Dubai starter - Master of Hounds - for Aidan O’Brien.

It would be safe to day that to get in this year, and with a several big graded races ahead, any horse will have to bank at least $240k in graded money to stand a chance.

So that means Nick Zito will be sweating it out a bit with Dialed In for example as the horse will have to finish 1st or 2nd in the Florida Derby to bank enough money to remain in contention. If he finishes 3rd I doubt they’d run him in another graded stakes prep race to shore up the money.

What races are left?

3-Apr Swale (G2 ) $150k
3-Apr Florida Derby (G1) $1M
9-Apr Bay Shore (G3) $200k
9-Apr Illinois Derby (G3) $250k
9-Apr Wood Memorial (G1) $1M
9-Apr Santa Anita Derby (G1) $750k
16-Apr Arkansas Derby (G1) $1M
16-Apr Blue Grass (G1) $750k
23-Apr Coolmore Lexington (G2) $300k
23-Apr Withers Stakes (G3) $150k
23-Apr Jerome (G2) $150k
30-Apr Derby Trial (G3) $200k

[Glimmerglass]

For those looking to know more or get inside info:

http://www.unclemo.com/

They’re also running some contest for the chance to come and meet Mo on April 7th

[Glimmerglass]

The field for the Swale and Florida Derby - Saturday April 3rd - have not been released yet.

There are however another 13 horses now nominated to the TC. Their owners put up the late nomination payment of $6,000 and it had to be in by Saturday night of March 26th. (364 horses were nominated with the $600 fee in the initial nomination cutoff.)

An owner still could nominate a horse however (1) that horse regardless of graded money or wins will get trumped by a horse nominated by the 26th and (2) it will cost a bundle: try a check of $200,000 with the Derby; that’s 10 percent of the $2 million purse.

Almost all horses nominated have either taken an important win or finished in the money with a graded race.

Tampa Bay Derby winner Watch Me Go and Swift Warrior, winner of the Rushaway Stakes last Saturday at Turfway Park. The other late nominees are Beer Meister, Bowman’s Causeway, Joe’s Blazing Aaron, Lagoon of Diamonds, Nacho Saint, Norman Asbjornson, Ruler on Ice, Saratoga Red, Smoke It Right, Truman’s Commander, and War Pact.

Interestingly: War Pact is actually based in France.

Trained in France by Jean-Claude Rouget, [War Pact] figures among 13 new nominations to the Triple Crown.

The US-bred son of War Front has won both starts this year, landing all-weather contests at Cagnes-sur-Mer and Deauville, starting an odds-on chance on both occasions.

[Glimmerglass]

The French-shipper of War Pact aside it seems a much more likely that Euro invader (but US-bred) Master of Hounds - who already ran here in the BC JV finishing 6th - will come back for the Kentucky Derby. This on the heels of just losing by a nose (to the South African filly -Khawlah) in the Group 2 $2M UAE Derby (Dubai). Aidan O’Brien has said his next start will be one of two races:

Either the Qipco 2000 Guineas or the Kentucky Derby following his gallant effort in the UAE Derby.

"We will see how they are and the next couple of weeks will tell us a lot.

“The Kentucky Derby is a great race. He handled the surface well out in Dubai and he’s a horse that has tactical speed and we were delighted with his run.”

He’s had different jocks on him so I wouldn’t be shocked if O’Brien considered picking up Calvin Borel who at the moment has no Derby mount. The choice would be an interesting one for John Magnier, et al.

Master of Hounds is a son of Kingmambo – Silk and Scarlet, by Sadler’s Wells, bred in Kentucky by Silk and Scarlet Syndicate.

[Third_Glance]

Unfortunately, Gourmet Dinner, a gutsy, gutsy colt I really like, is now officially out of the Derby and off the TC trail. His trainer says he has shin issues that developed shortly after the FOY (in which he finished 2nd).

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Its_Official_Gourmet_Dinner_Off_The_Derby_Trail_123

Not sure why they kept so quiet about something like that. At any rate, he won’t resume jogging until mid-April.

Gourmet Dinner sold for $40,000 and has already earned his connections nearly $990,000.