I’m very excited for this year’s Derby. I would love to hear what you all think of the hopefuls. I like American Pharaoh of course and Carpe Diem but Mubtaahij looks nice as well. Also Danzig Moon… So many classy ones this year.
This is the most excited I’ve been for the Kentucky Derby in quite a few years. :yes:
I’ve been sold on Mubtaahij since the UAE Derby… but it’s going to be hard to bet against American Pharaoh and Dortmund. Firing Line is also incredibly impressive.
Glad someone started this. Miss Glimmerglass again, though.
I was just sending this to my sister and niece. Handy to have!
http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/abrv/2015/4/22/2015-kentucky-derby-cheat-sheet/
Frankly, I’m not as excited about the Derby this year as I have been in past years. Guess I just miss some emotional connection to those on top.
I liked Upstart, but he seemed a little tired at the end of the FL Derby. Am impressed by Dortmund, American Pharaoh, and Carpe Diem of course.
Agree about Danzig Moon - peaking at just the right time, and just beautiful.
Not as much time these days to contribute. Will be interesting to hear what everyone else’s thoughts are.
It’s really hard to pick a favorite this year It’s a week from tomorrow!
It would be nice if we’d seen the top horses compete against one another before this.
[QUOTE=SportArab;8121865]
It would be nice if we’d seen the top horses compete against one another before this.[/QUOTE]
While I sort of agree with you, I think the fact that there are several strong contenders who have NOT done so is part of what is making this year interesting.
…the part I deem interesting is that the experts Like Jon White for example say the 141st run is simply to determine who will be second. third, fourth, etc.
They, Jon White for example also say that if Am. Pharoah does everything right…and if he draws a favorable post and if no other horses ruin his rouite and if everytghing goes perfect…Am. Pharoah will win the 141st running.
I am no expert, but what I will lay money on is that if any of the other 19 race horses do everything right …THAT horse will win.
So there. Come to think of it…I too must be an expert.
Jon also says Am. Pharoah will likely be the next Tripple winner…if everything goes right for him…
I say…that next year…if there is a horse who does everything right, I mean if there is,that horse will be a Ky Derby winner. I know it is a long shot to say so, but I would like you all to remember my words…
Lol! I’ll make sure to remember what you’ve said greenleaf if we have a TC winner next year.
Handicappers are fawning over AmP, meanwhile I’m over here chillin’ in the Dortmund camp waiting for Saturday.
I loved the group of three year olds we had last year, this year (besides Dortmund) for some reason seems so “meh” to me. Even American Pharaoh fails to excite me, I’ve seen too many young horses similar to him. They’re awesome, then poof after the TC. Win or lose the Derby, my thoughts are AP is just another Bodemeister, don’t get too attached.
Exactly.
Exactly.
…and exactly.
I like Dortmund too. He is a fighter.
That’s why I love him as well. Is he the most talented thing out there? Probably not, but he’s handsome and fun to root for, and that’s all I need to fall in love with a horse.
See, I don’t find Dortmund handsome at all. I think he’s got an especially coarse head. But if he runs his race and doesn’t have much trouble, I will take him over American Pharaoh. Carpe Diem, Frosted, Materiality and Mubtaahj (or whatever, I swear I’ll learn to spell it if he wins) as most likely spoilers.
Sooooooo many good horses this year! It’s near impossible to handicap because if any of the top horses falter, someone else will be right there to overtake them.
With that said, I’m going to be beyond ticked if we have a Giacomo like upset and someone like Keen Ice wins. :lol:
Dortmund!
Well, I have done my homework evaluating the top 25 point colts who are probable for the field. Never can be sure that there won’t be any more scratches at this late date.
So far IMHO the colts that have the speed and can make the distance are listed below. I’ll be on the road Thursday and Friday to pick up a horse so this is probably my last word on the subject. If time I’ll post Saturday my top three and really put myself out on limb. :lol:
FAR RIGHT
DANZIG MOON
WAR STORY
STANFORD
MR Z
and if they get in to the field.
BOLD CONQUEST
TOASTING MASTER
So far my long shots are
CARPE DIEM
FROSTED
ITSAKNOCKOUT
OCHO OCHO OCHO
It’s spring and with all this wet weather I’ve had little time to consider what’s going on. I spend a lot of time on pedigree, connections, and distance. I’m not much on speed figures or work times when it comes to the KD. The winner of the KD must have brillance in its pedigree as well as stoutness and that does not mean looking at Steve Roman’s calculations. SR’s dosage is utterly worthless in this day and age.
I’ve already thrown DORTMUND, INTERNATIONAL STAR, AMERICAN PHAROAH, MATERIALITY, EL KABEIR, UPSTART, FIRING LINE, FRAMMENTO, and METABOSS out of consideration. Some of the above are bred to go short and other long.
It is interesting that FAR RIGHT and FRAMMENTO are from American Families. FRAMMENTO hasn’t a chance in the derby, but maybe the Belmont.
Good luck to everyone.
I love Dortmund, too. I admire his business like way of getting it done.
Physically, he draws me in, too. The " coarse" head (I call it strong & noble, though) works for me. Note: I used to be a stb groom and love that sort of look.
I had to chuckle a little, because you definitely won’t be getting “long shot” odds on either of those two! Carpe Diem is one of the heavy favorites right behind Dortmund and Pharoah, and Frosted’s odds likely won’t be all that much longer than any of those 3!
Best of luck! 
Have to pull for American Pharoah, not because everybody loves him, but because of watching him at Oaklawn. He was so visually impressive in the paddock and in the race. Class of the field. Even at 1-9, I could not see anything else in there getting to him, again not because of the hype, but because he looked like every inch of 1-9 before the race. In the paddock, after saddling, they had some sort of urgent bridle adjustment that they decided to make in mid lap and tucked him into a vacant stall, which happened to be nearly in front of where I was on the rail, and I got a chance to watch him stand there for 2 minutes or so while they messed with his bridle. Beautiful animal, wired but also calm in the paddock, and once they got going, absolutely gorgeous stride.
One of these years, I will see the Derby winner on my annual trip to Hot Springs. I think it might well have been this year.
[QUOTE=Texarkana;8126128]
I had to chuckle a little, because you definitely won’t be getting “long shot” odds on either of those two! Carpe Diem is one of the heavy favorites right behind Dortmund and Pharoah, and Frosted’s odds likely won’t be all that much longer than any of those 3!
Best of luck! :)[/QUOTE]
:lol: Maybe “longshot” wasn’t the right word. There is a lot to like about both FROSTED and CARPE DIEM. There is a chance IMO but they’ll have to have a perfect set up with post position and the break to assure a clean trip.
Did another check and found that MATERIALITY is also from an American family also. That makes three. Don’t ever recall this many American family lines in the derby.
Usually I have a horse in mind to cheer for long before the Derby but this year I have several that I would like to see win. Would be lovely to see a Triple Crown winner.
AP and firing line.
