Indeed, never say never. I have 2 mares that regularly conceive on first ovulation of a split cycle - one ovulated 4 days after the first ovulation and still took with twins despite only being inseminated for the first ovulation, the second mare ovulated 48 hours apart (twins again). Twins reduced, both still pregnant. This is their consistency and not flukes.
Two of the most dangerous assumptions in breeding: (1) that mares never grow foals bigger than the space they have, and (2) that first foals are always the smallest. Most definitely NOT true and I have experienced a number of notable exceptions to these general rules over the past 30 years that have been hair-raising. Some maidens produce enormous foals. Some small mares produce very large foals, bigger than they should be. It’s scary when they do this and a few have needed cesareans for too big a foal.
OP, really watch your feeding program. Your mare is not even in her third trimester yet and does not need extras. She moves into her third trimester in mid December and this is when you can gradually increase her extras so that by mid February she is eating what she needs for the duration. Over-feeding minerals/nutrition now makes problems for later. At current, the foal does not steal many nutrients from mom and both are quite easily maintained on whatever mommy needs to maintain herself! It’s the final 2 months where baby does 80% of its growth and takes nutrients so this is when you watch nutrients and balances. You want mommy to develop 1/2 inch of fat on her ribs to provide a good buffer for lactation demands. As she approaches late Feb and into March, she may voluntarily reduce her hay consumption and you may have to increase her broodie kibble again to compensate.
I received nutrition counseling from Kentucky Equine Research as I needed a lot of help with a mare 2 years ago who also had ultrasound-proven large-for-dates baby over the 5 or so ultrasounds she had. As she approached her delivery time, I was so concerned I never left the farm even for groceries. Vet and I were there as she went into labor, and while this mare does a tremendous job with her pushing, she needed help with a shoulder and hip dystocia. Colt came out extremely large, alive and with perfect legs, so KER’s nutrition program was right on target. She is 15.3. He will top 17 hands when all is said and done. And I deliberately picked a stallion who produces average-at-birth sized foals - this size came from HER. I doubt either mare or foal would have survived had the vet and I not been there.
You know your skills and experience best and you know your comfort levels better than anyone - but I always give the same piece of advice to everyone - TRUST YOUR GUT. You know your mare, even though she is a maiden, you still know her. As March approaches, if you are still really concerned, then make arrangements to have her foal out at a vet’s foaling facility or other pro foaling facility so help is on hand with her and don’t allow her left alone or unmonitored for a second.