National Institutes of Health Chance of Dying Chart

[KarenRO]

Big caveat here - I am not minimizing the impact of any illness with this post. I followed Kim’s thread closely and was very sad when her journey came to an end. However, I think it is also important to keep in mind that the risk of dying from any particular type of cancer, in general, is really quite small for folks who do not have 1) a genetic predisposition (e.g., BRAC), 2) certain life style behaviors (e.g., smoking) or 3) a chronic/acute environmental exposure (e.g., asbestos). This does not mean that you should ignore the various preventive screening options that are offered today as early detection can be key to survival. However, you do need to do your research. Screenings can yield false positives and/or identify cancers that are not going to kill you, both leading to unnecessary follow up testing, needless stress, cost and anxiety. Check the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations on preventive screenings.

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has a useful chart that determines your chance of dying from the top 10 causes of death (depending on age, gender and ethnicity). This is a very high level chart and does not take into consideration that factors I mentioned above. However, I sill found the information of interest.

https://knowyourchances.cancer.gov/ (choose the My Chance chart).

In my case (I’m in my early 60s), in the next 10 years, I have a 1.4% chance of dying from coronary heart disease (doubtful), a 1.3% chance of dying from lung/bronchus cancer (ignoring that one as I am a lifelong non-smoker), a 1.0 chance of dying from COPD (again, not a smoker), a 0.6% chance of dying from breast cancer, a 0.4% chance of dying from a stroke (I will blame my husband if that happens) and a 0.3% chance of dying from colon cancer. The odds are high that I will live a healthy life for at least the next 10 years, provided one of my horses doesn’t squash me.

I would be interested to see what people think of the My Chance chart.

[Where_sMyWhite]

For me, honestly, I’m not even going to look at the My Chance chart.

I have a number of different physical issues that will, I suspect, at some point contribute/cause my death. I see my PCP and specialists at the frequency they recommend, get diagnostic tests (bloodwork, CT, MRI, etc) as they recommend. I put one foot in front of the other with a plan to deal with “something” when it shows up.

Worrying/stressing over things that might kill me are things I personally just can’t put on my plate as I have enough on it already

[BUSY]

My Chance chart relieves some stress … thank you KarenRO for posting this chart.

edit … I certainly did not mean to make light of anyone’s physical ailments or situations.

[RMJacobs]

I don’t think WMW is missing the point. I think she is saying that she has other health factors that blow all the normal statistics out of the water. So do I. So for people like us, why bother even looking at normal statistics? It doesn’t relieve stress. It just adds to it.

In my case, I have rheumatoid arthritis, which is known to affect lifespan in some people. It doesn’t just affect joints; it affects organs. On top of that, taking the meds to try to manage it will likely shorten my lifespan as well. Throw in inability to do many forms of exercise (10,000 steps? I’d like to take 20 without risking my feet giving out due to neuropathy and causing a devastating fall). I’m lucky that I can bike, and do eight miles a day. Lots of people can’t go any form of exercise, depending on their particular disability.

The chart is definitely a valuable tool if you are not an outlier. It just doesn’t apply to some of us.

Rebecca

[BUSY]

@RMJacobs

I don’t think WMW is missing the point. I think she is saying that she has other health factors that blow all the normal statistics out of the water. So do I. So for people like us, why bother even looking at normal statistics? It doesn’t relieve stress. It just adds to it.

In my case, I have rheumatoid arthritis, which is known to affect lifespan in some people. It doesn’t just affect joints; it affects organs. On top of that, taking the meds to try to manage it will likely shorten my lifespan as well. Throw in inability to do many forms of exercise (10,000 steps? I’d like to take 20 without risking my feet giving out due to neuropathy and causing a devastating fall). I’m lucky that I can bike, and do eight miles a day. Lots of people can’t go any form of exercise, depending on their particular disability.

The chart is definitely a valuable tool if you are not an outlier. It just doesn’t apply to some of us.

Rebecca

I edited my above post … I did not mean to make light of anyone’s physical ailments or situations (that I am unaware of) … so sorry
Rebecca … please accept my apology.

[KBC]

Chances of dying?

100% for each and every one of us.

Of more interest to me, living before you die, and that is the gift Kim gave me, we none of us know how long, so get on with living…

[cayuse]

What KBC said. Sometimes there is no rhyme or reason to when and why we die. But we all will. So get on with life, the good, the bad and the ugly of it.
And I hope that for everyone here there is much, much more GOOD than anything else.

[RMJacobs]

@BUSY

I edited my above post … I did not mean to make light of anyone’s physical ailments or situations (that I am unaware of) … so sorry
Rebecca … please accept my apology.

I am not at all angry or upset with you. I just wanted to help you (and anyone else on this thread) to understand a different perspective. On the other hand, I don’t know how WMW felt about your response. Your response was directed at her, so if anyone needs an apology, it would be her.

Thanks for understanding.

Rebecca

[BUSY]

@RMJacobs

I am not at all angry or upset with you. I just wanted to help you (and anyone else on this thread) to understand a different perspective. On the other hand, I don’t know how WMW felt about your response. Your response was directed at her, so if anyone needs an apology, it would be her.

Thanks for understanding.

Rebecca

I apologize to the WORLD !

• my post was not mean !
  WE ALL have limitations !

I simply did not find the chart to be offensive in any way …I found it to be a stress reliever in a way.
I was trying to indicate the chart was a helpful read • and perhaps a reader would like it .

again I apologize

Live and let live !

[Magicboy]

I found it interesting and thank you for sharing the link. It made me feel good since I don’t smoke or have any complications from other diseases. I do value my health and am very aware that I’m fortunate at 71.

[deltawave]

It’s good information and puts many things (like the horrific dangers of smoking) into sharp relief.

I was relieved (I guess?) to see that my biggest risk right now is still “accident”. Which makes me fairly keen to figure out why my new greenie is bucking lately lol.

Accurate, good quality information can never really harm us. Bad and false information can. When it isn’t something incredibly difficult, expensive, or dangerous, we should all take obvious precautions (like seat belts, mammograms, vaccinations) to protect ourselves. But we should all acknowledge that in spite of every precaution, we all gonna die. And never forget to LIVE!

[Where_sMyWhite]

@RMJacobs

I don’t think WMW is missing the point. I think she is saying that she has other health factors that blow all the normal statistics out of the water. So do I. So for people like us, why bother even looking at normal statistics? It doesn’t relieve stress. It just adds to it.

Thanks Rebecca for ‘getting it’. I know I’m going to kick the bucket at some point. I have “issues” that more than likely will contribute to how and when that happens. I don’t need to read a chart

OP, I wouldn’t have found the chart offensive if I had read it, just not helpful.

FWIW, I haven’t gone searching in any of the DNA databases either…

[RMJacobs]

@BUSY, I didn’t think you were trying to be mean! I enjoy your posts and think that you try to be informed, so I took it upon myself to explain.

Rebecca

[CanadianTrotter]

@RMJacobs

@BUSY, I didn’t think you were trying to be mean! I enjoy your posts and think that you try to be informed, so I took it upon myself to explain.

Rebecca

Yep, BUSY is a good egg!

[CanadianTrotter]

@RMJacobs

In my case, I have rheumatoid arthritis, which is known to affect lifespan in some people. It doesn’t just affect joints; it affects organs. On top of that, taking the meds to try to manage it will likely shorten my lifespan as well. Throw in inability to do many forms of exercise (10,000 steps? I’d like to take 20 without risking my feet giving out due to neuropathy and causing a devastating fall). I’m lucky that I can bike, and do eight miles a day. Lots of people can’t go any form of exercise, depending on their particular disability.

The chart is definitely a valuable tool if you are not an outlier. It just doesn’t apply to some of us.

Rebecca

Yes, RA or any autoimmune disease can be a major factor that lessens a person’s lifespan, as well as diabetes, people prone to infections, disabilities, etc…

I fall into five of those categories plus have already had cancer and two near death experiences so I don’t tend to worry about the what ifs and just focus on being happy and putting one foot in front of the other.

[eclipse]

Sometimes you can do everything right, never smoke, don’t be overweight, don’t carry genetic genes, have low blood pressure etc etc and still get cancer…I stopped looking at these kind of charts because, well, no offence, but I just find them useless! 4 months ago I’d of fallen into the “oh look I have no issues”, now i don’t need a chart to tell me instead of being in the 96% of women that’ll be alive in 5 years I’m now in a 92%! I get that info from my cancer specialist…Now I just don’t worry, I don’t Dr Google, and I don’t sweat the small stuff!