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Personally,I think it seems the best decision for the horse. Tough on any horse to run those three races in five weeks…Kudos to owner and trainer for not caving to the pressure that must be felt when you have the Derby winner.
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I would have to guess this is a money move. RS is a stallion and a winner at this point. Would not he be more valuable to stop on a win?
Winning the triple crown would make him a ton more valuable than what he is right now.
Their plan is to run him in the Belmont, where they think he has a good shot. That was always their plan before drawing into the derby and they are sticking to it. They know everything about the Preakness is not in his favor- the quick turnaround, the distance, etc.
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Not really, since his pedigree isn’t one that many mare owners would be thrilled with. I don’t think that winning the Derby will be enough for him to attract mares.
Nice connections he has, to keep him in races that they think are the best for him.
There are many good races coming up this year and of course the Breeders Cup. They’d be silly to stop at the Derby.
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There have been enough “fluke” Derby winners throughout its history that I agree with you – I don’t think winning the Derby will be enough for him to attract mares.
ETA: I’m not saying his win was a fluke!
We just don’t know that it wasn’t.
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Honestly, history kinda shows that many Derby winners are not super successful sires.
Since 1991, these winners have gone on to be forgettable sires (not good enough to stay popular on a KY roster)
Strike The Gold
Lil E Tee
Sea Hero
Go For Gin
Grindstone
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
Charismatic
Monarchos (OK he never left KY but he was not popular)
War Emblem
Smarty Jones
Giacomo
Big Brown
Super Saver
Animal Kingdom
I’ll Have Another
Orb (he may still be at Claiborne, private fee)
California Chrome.
In those years, the only big successes were Thunder Gulch, FuPeg (not as successful as predicted, but good enough), Street Sense, American Pharoah (though his popularity is at risk with few dirt GSWs), and Nyquist. Both Street Sense and Nyquist are Breeders Cup Juvenile winners.
Jury is still out on Always Dreaming, but I bet he has a short leash at Winstar. Justify may make it. Country House probably won’t. Authentic has a real good chance, but who knows.
Looking at that list from the past 30yrs, the stats actually make it seem like a KY Derby win is almost the kiss of death to a successful KY stud career.
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Interesting article.
Britain spaces its Triple Crown races farther apart than we do and there have been fifteen winners since the first one in 1853.
Yes. Starting with Aristides!
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Are they still as valuable if they come in dead last at The Preakness? Not saying RS would not have done poorly but his record wasn’t stellar. Why not stop now while he was ahead?
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Great list.
Even Thunder Gulch and FuPeg just barely meet the criteria for success. They did enough that Coolmore didn’t feel the need to sell them. Hopefully American Pharoah will be treated the same regardless of what happens over the next few years.
Really, only Street Sense has held his own. The others either failed at being a Kentucky sire or are still too early in their career to say for sure.
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I have a friend whose mare was a rock star climbing the ranks. She took a misstep in warmup and was pulled from the sport indefinitely. Her record was fabulous. It makes one wonder if she is more valuable being pulled at the top of her game and used as a brood mare than have a poor round and decrease her value.
The problem is he isn’t really ahead.
Pedigree-wise, Rich Strike is not a valuable commodity. Performance-wise, he has only one significant win and it’s in a race that is know to produce more failures at stud than successes. Winning the KY Derby means he will always have a job as a stallion… but right now, that job will probably be in Asia unless he wins more stallion-making races.
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I think they know he is unlikely to fire 100% in the Preakness, but will be very well suited for the Belmont. Of course it’s an economic decision just as it is a horsemanship decision; a poor effort in the Preakness does him no favors. But I’m saying that Rich Strike has a LOT left to prove KY breeders that he is a good choice, and his connections know this too…he needs more G1 wins on his resumé. But I think his retirement career is not their main objective (unlike most ownership groups at Baffert/Pletcher type stables). This owner/trainer is looking out for their racehorse first and foremost, not their potential breeding stallion. This is their one chance to have a BIG horse and they want to make the most of it, and I hope they do!
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Rich Strike also has the unfortunate problem that not only is his own sire is young and cheap to breed to, his grand sire is also still available and wildly successful.
They always say if you like the son, breed to his sire… or his grand sire (if you can afford it).
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But the last English Triple Crown (One Thousand Guineas, Epsom Derby and St. Leger) winner was Nijinsky II, foaled in 1967 (from Northern Dancer’s second foal crop).
Agree, 100%. Rich Strike has a LOT of winning to do to retire in KY. Like dominant victories at Belmont, the Travers, and BC classic. Then come back next year with more impressive G1 wins at all the big races.
Florida is home to a bunch of multi-million dollar earners; good, sound racehorses who showed up in every major G1 well past age 3. They stand for $6k and under, and are lucky to get 50 mares after the first season or two. Why aren’t they in KY? Why so cheap? Because the pedigree doesn’t stack up with the big boys; because that money was earned in 2nd, 3rd place finishes; because the races were not on dirt.
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Also, didn’t address this in the last post- coming in dead last in the Preakness would probably be the worst thing for his value at the moment. It would solidify the idea in breeders’ minds that he only won the Derby in a fluke.
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Don’t forget Northern Dancer!
