NO such thing as "freak" or "fluke" accidents

There is a very interesting sequence during Bromont '76 beginning at 26.00.
The 3 jump water combination.

The horse manages to pull it out and stay up on the last element…
What did that effort/ride have that saved it vs. others that ended up being rotational falls?

Thanks,

Also Bromont, about 44:40 onwards, several above-the-knees hits that horses managed to pull out, or at least not rotate.

What is different today?

As a personal observation, I think losing the steeplechase and roads and tracks left the endurance fitness for x-c, too.

Maybe affected the rider’s ability to be confident and quick thinking at speed, too.

I just think there are more factors at work here than simply ‘bad fences’

[QUOTE=D_BaldStockings;8670169]
Also Bromont, about 44:40 onwards, several above-the-knees hits that horses managed to pull out, or at least not rotate.

What is different today?[/QUOTE]
Nothing is different, those riders just got lucky. Still happens today. Physics has not changed.

I never thought the physics had changed.

But I am hoping there is more to a horse/rider combination getting out of bad spots than luck and ju-ju.
And that the factors can be at least identified, if not duplicated.

I saw several instances where horses in mid-air put in added effort to pull up their knees; spots where riders were in the right place balance-wise to not tip over and lawn dart, and horses that were consistently scarily flat and dragging themselves across jumps or stalling in front of fences then climbing over… time faults piling up.

-Football teams look at films of EVERYTHING that goes on in a play, not just the instant where the tackle is made or the runner makes the end zone.

There are mistakes, there are correct actions, there are factors that make a difference for A competitor vs. B competitor.

Personally I’d like to see all the fences come down if hit right and be able to be quickly reset (how many volunteers would that take!)
Is that going to ‘solve’ problems of no-fifth-leg horses and wrong choices by riders?
Will that address horses unfit or unsuited or riders out of shape or back too soon?
Rider fatigue on too many horses that day?

If it were a simple fix, then it could be fixable.

You can see plenty of saves today too. There’d no evidence saves have become more or less prevalent over the years.

If you want to stop rotational falls tomorrow make every fence on course a hedge. Problem solved. Not gonna happen because it’s impractical but it is ultimately that simple: horse and riders rotate around a fixed object they hit at speed that is the right height. Take away the fixed object and you’ll still have falls but no more spinning ones.

IMO accidents, freak accidents, rare accidents, unlucky, etc. would be better called low probability events. I would speculate most have a (somewhat) controllable outcome but (within reason) not all of them.

[QUOTE=Gnep;8668880]
A BN Long Format ?

Ahhhhhhhhm.[/QUOTE]
I’ve had a shit of a week and day, but come on…are we making fun of a farm and people that work to experience long format at Beginner Novice? Come one…maybe it is not the let’s try to kill them approach to Eventing at the upper levels, but it does at least require a dedicated, new, BN rider the opportunity to get even a taste of what it took to train, condition, and enter such an event. I watched horses get spun in the initial, I watched them get spun in the 10 minute, I watch the joy of riders finishing at BN so do NOT ever put down the effort of any rider that wants to even taste what was Eventing.

[QUOTE=Winding Down;8668790]
You must not have spent much time at the finish line of the big 4* back in the day. Or watching the catastrophic falls.

Numbers do not lie.

And in my experience, neither do vets.[/QUOTE]
What does this mean? I’ve seen the videos, I’ve read from old salts, but what does that have to do with today. Meredith Little and her horse fell in most part because that horse was worn out way before she even attempted that fence. Others, the announcers stated they were tired. I am stating the obvious that Top Riders are showing up with horses, today, that are not fit enough to run a 4* (without LF) and still be prepared for the next day. I really don’t give crap about yesteryear other than a ‘let us not repeat it’ stance, but I do care watching horses gasping around a 4* course when it is the F’ing responsibility of the rider to ensure their health, welfare, and endurance capability.

Demeter’s rider at Rolex should have earned a DR or yellow card, but no, we look the other way so we don’t call into question the poor training we are giving horses today or the poor decisions to run them at the extreme.

We are talking about safety here. An unfit horse should not be on a maximum course and we are seeing more of that as time goes on.

[QUOTE=GO-dog-GO;8671184]
IMO accidents, freak accidents, rare accidents, unlucky, etc. would be better called low probability events. I would speculate most have a (somewhat) controllable outcome but (within reason) not all of them.[/QUOTE]

Actually, freak accidents are by definition, low probability events. The title of this thread is quite confusing for that reason. :slight_smile:

[QUOTE=JP60;8671246]
.are we making fun of a farm and people that work to experience long format at Beginner Novice? [/QUOTE]

Just quoting you, JP60, as you correctly pointed out that this is indeed a continually growing & fantastic event (we missed you this year!) - some may call me biased because I am on the board (we’re now a non-profit, woot!) that helps run it, but I keep helping because I’ve not only seen, but benefited myself from what the 3DE’s have to offer at ALL levels.

I too was a little skeptical whether the BN division would offer the same type of education when we started it – but it not only has, it’s exceeded what any of us thought. Our clinicians this year were Carol Kozlowski & Sally O’Connor (who VOLUNTEERED her time when I contacted her about simply donating a book as a prize, she is wonderful & also commentated on our new livestream! You can watch it all, it was great to record it so riders could watch their own rides later, here: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ZwcE8s2CbLZ, with links to all our awesome sponsors & photo posts), along with Tremaine Cooper, who keeps designing us courses in partnership with Tyson Rementer & Rob Mobley (builders) that are challenging, but safe, fair, & as I’ve learned from his coursewalks, incredibly thoughtful.

Because one of the primary focuses of this event is education, along with great horsemanship, all the riders attend talks on Phases A-C, riding clinics on steeplechase, course walks, the 10-minute box, together. We have competitors who’ve started at the BN 3DE division & worked up. The BN3DE also offers a great chance to do the long format (they ride the same Phases A & C in all divisions & all do the jogs, etc) for people who might have older horses or horses like my Appendix who are just physically limited but completely happy & comfortable hopping around BN sizes (& no, my horse was not just limited by my brain, I’ve taken both through T).

Because of all of this, it has proven to be a very appropriate introduction to the LF indeed & we set new entry records this year again. Lots of new people too, which is really exciting.

And it makes me so happy to watch (I also run radio control on Endurance Day for phases A-C) the horses in all 3 (BN/N/T) 3DE divisions come through the finish flags on Phase D still with perk in their ears & spring in their step. Riders did their homework & no small thanks to the owner & crew at the farm for the phenomenal ground. No one got hurt, our 2 rider falls were a stumble unrelated to a fence (rider re-mounted after check & continued) and a young, ditchy horse in one of the HT divisions who just did a dirty, dirty stop while I watched at a trakehener & dropped his rider over his shoulder into the ditch itself. Our EMTs always do a very, very thorough check, she was ok (at least the horse slid her in neatly before he ran away & tried to kick the other horse on course, geez). We did have some fence penalties, all were run-outs or refusals, as designed. One horse knocked a hind leg on a log, his rider felt the soreness in one step & retired. Horse was checked out, cleared, and they show jumped smoothly with permission the next day.

Sorry for the novel, but just wanted to share (as I haven’t had a chance to type the blog post yet) that we’ve got REALLY GOOD things going on in eventing too.

I have to vouch for the BN three-day as well. I was totally skeptical about the format for that level until I saw it in action, the first time was when I was competing in the training three-day myself, and the second time was when I was cheering on friends in the novice three-day and helping in the ten minute box. The riders in the BN three day were taking it all so seriously and learning a TON. One coach had been a groom for one of the O’Connors and she brought a bunch of students and let me tell you, the level of stable management on that aisle of the barn rivaled what I’ve seen in the barn at WEG and Burgley. The amount of thought riders put into the conditioning for the phases they hadn’t done before was impressive. Everyone left their cynicism at the door and supported each other and chipped in and learned and celebrated the core spirit of eventing. I’m so glad I got to see it unfold and appreciate what that weekend meant for everyone, no matter their level. It was a beautiful thing.

GNEP, I bet you would be pleasantly surprised. You could certainly contribute a lot if you had time to volunteer.

[QUOTE=Winding Down;8671381]
Actually, freak accidents are by definition, low probability events. The title of this thread is quite confusing for that reason. :)[/QUOTE]

No, the title is explicitly clear. As a person who IS an expert in failure investigation, I have yet to see ONE freak accident or failure. So the title is exactly what we in the failure analysis and investigation world understand.

Part of the intent of this is to educate those who don’t understand what really the term “safety” should be in eventing. It’s not to assign blame but to put together a likely series of events and causes that lead up to a failure of the system, eg death in this case.

Reed

[QUOTE=RAyers;8671813]
No, the title is explicitly clear. As a person who IS an expert in failure investigation, I have yet to see ONE freak accident or failure. So the title is exactly what we in the failure analysis and investigation world understand.

Part of the intent of this is to educate those who don’t understand what really the term “safety” should be in eventing. It’s not to assign blame but to put together a likely series of events and causes that lead up to a failure of the system, eg death in this case.

Reed[/QUOTE]

Okay. I get it. It sounds like both the word accident and freak are unacceptable to you, across all settings.

This is a manner of semantics but that’s okay. I get your point. You are saying that there are causes for everything (I agree).

Freak Accidents are typically very unlikely low probability events that have negative consequences. You are adding and objecting to “with no cause.”

Everyone believes that we need to search for causes in order to reduce bad outcomes. There are, however, potential causes that we cannot get rid of unless we decide to get rid of riding altogether. We all know of examples such as Silva Martin and others.

I applaud your expertise in your professional career, although recognizing that all events have causes does not necessarily take that level of expertise.

How many people call it a ‘low probability event’ … the US ranks something like 47th in mathematics in the world … so most Americans are going to call it a ‘freak accident’ because math and science are foreign to them.

I love this

This is so true.

[QUOTE=Winding Down;8672354]
Okay. I get it. It sounds like both the word accident and freak are unacceptable to you, across all settings.

This is a manner of semantics but that’s okay. I get your point. You are saying that there are causes for everything (I agree).

Freak Accidents are typically very unlikely low probability events that have negative consequences. You are adding and objecting to “with no cause.”

Everyone believes that we need to search for causes in order to reduce bad outcomes. There are, however, potential causes that we cannot get rid of unless we decide to get rid of riding altogether. We all know of examples such as Silva Martin and others.

I applaud your expertise in your professional career, although recognizing that all events have causes does not necessarily take that level of expertise.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=BaroquePony;8672376]
How many people call it a ‘low probability event’ … the US ranks something like 47th in mathematics in the world … so most Americans are going to call it a ‘freak accident’ because math and science are foreign to them.[/QUOTE]

WHAT?! There are other countries?!

Well, I am just a liberal arts person. But I am connector of information.

What caught my eye is that your chances of dying when leaving the start box are 1 in 10,000.

Also, if you look at Malcolm Gladwell’s “Outliers” – it takes 10,000 attempts to get good. So right about when you can expect to get good at eventing, statistics are you will get killed instead.

There are some numbers for you. I know that is wildly oversimplistic but it is striking and sobering.

Read the sidebar article on Honoring Phillipa. UL level eventer who thinks TPTB are dedicated and doing everything possible to increase XC safety.

[QUOTE=RAyers;8672807]
WHAT?! There are other countries?![/QUOTE]

Silly! There are 10 countries, did you know?