Old Fashioned retired--Fragile Unbridled's Song

[vineyridge]

I’m not sure that the stats used in the JC study quoted are very persuasive. I’d want to look at the methodology. First of all, the omission that is glaring to me is one that takes into account something that I can’t tell whether they used. There simply aren’t that many races written for two year olds, are there? I would think a good bit of selection for the three year old Derby trail is going on for two year racers. If that’s the case, then the two year olds in the study are “better quality” from the getgo, so their lifetime earnings–if they survived their two year old year–would naturally be higher. The same question would apply to most of the statistical categories. It’s self evident that better horses will win more money and more stakes, and two year old racers in the USA are mostly likely the cream of the crop, given US racing.

Second, what they don’t seem to track is total number of two year old starters that race into their later years, i.e, the attrition rate. The ones who do make it through and into the later years might well have benefited from the two year old races, but what about the ones that don’t race on? That stat is not one of the ones they publicize. The figure I’d like to see is the attrition rate of two years in the two year old year versus the attrition of the horses that started to run in the year that they started to run.

You know what they say about stats. They can prove almost anything you want to prove if you ask the right questions.

I’m not trying to tar and feather UBS, but maybe breeding a Meadowlake mare to him was not the wisest breeding decision. Maybe he needs mares that can bring something to his foals other than raw speed.

[Drvmb1ggl3]

[QUOTE=Calico;4025607]
I looked this up a few months ago when Unbridled’s Song became “hot” - he gets about 75% runners from foals of racing age. That is within a percentage point of Storm Cat and AP Indy, and a few percentage points higher than Tiznow (and other popular stallions but I can’t remember exactly who). Basically, Unbridled’s Song is at the top of runners:foals

Unbridled’s Song gets just over 12 starts per runner, which is higher than the stallions already mentioned, most by several starts. That doesn’t sound particularly fragile to me.

Based on these data, I think there is some hysteria over Unbridled’s Song because Eight Belles and Old Fashioned suffered fractures in widely watched races.

I meant to add - this information is from Pedigree Query. :)[/QUOTE]

Hey, who needs numbers when you can have skewed perceptions?

[Drvmb1ggl3]

[QUOTE=vineyridge;4025627]
I’m not sure that the stats used in the JC study quoted are very persuasive. I’d want to look at the methodology. First of all, the omission that is glaring to me is one that takes into account something that I can’t tell whether they used. There simply aren’t that many races written for two year olds, are there? I would think a good bit of selection for the three year old Derby trail is going on for two year racers. If that’s the case, then the two year olds in the study are “better quality” from the getgo, so their lifetime earnings–if they survived their two year old year–would naturally be higher. The same question would apply to most of the statistical categories. It’s self evident that better horses will win more money and more stakes, and two year old racers in the USA are mostly likely the cream of the crop, given US racing.

Second, what they don’t seem to track is total number of two year old starters that race into their later years, i.e, the attrition rate. The ones who do make it through and into the later years might well have benefited from the two year old races, but what about the ones that don’t race on? That stat is not one of the ones they publicize. The figure I’d like to see is the attrition rate of two years in the two year old year versus the attrition of the horses that started to run in the year that they started to run.

You know what they say about stats. They can prove almost anything you want to prove if you ask the right questions.

I’m not trying to tar and feather UBS, but maybe breeding a Meadowlake mare to him was not the wisest breeding decision. Maybe he needs mares that can bring something to his foals other than raw speed.[/QUOTE]

For someone who doesn’t follow racing very closely you have some highly formulated opinions about racing.
Seriously, if have to ask a question like "There simply aren’t that many races written for two year olds, are there? , how are you qualified to have an opinion on the subject? Do you look at many racecards?

Btw, Calico made no mention of lifetime earnings, s/he stated the stats for runners/foals (how many get to the track) and starts/runners (and how many times they run once they get there).

[Dispatcher]

pardon my ignorance, but does Lundy still have any ownership in Unbridled’s Song?

I’m a slow reader and have yet to finish Wild Ride…

[vineyridge]

I was not using Calico’s information. I was going on the quote in Slvbltday’s post.

As to the number of races written for two year olds versus the number of races for older horses, if you’d like, I’ll go through a bunch of race cards from major and minor tracks and see how many two year races are written per card. The cards that I have seen write fewer than ten percent of their races for two year olds. It is possible that 2 year olds run in maiden races against older horses, though.

[Laurierace]

There is a huge difference between how many races of a certain kind are written vs. how many of those races go. Two year olds obviously all start out maidens. The ones who win early have to wait around for enough of the other ones to win as well so there are enough winners to fill a never win two race. Nothing you can do but wait. And no, two year olds can not run against older horses anywhere in the country.

[halo]

Calder thrives on 2 year old races. They have a special race day where all they have are two year old races, and the races over fill. Every day there will be at least one, and some days several 2 year old races, during the summer.

[vineyridge]

I just went to the DRF online and looked through the race cards at about fifteen tracks for the period from April 5 to April 18. Hawthorne, Oaklawn, Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs wrote no two year old races in that period. Gulfstream wrote one or two, Lone Star Park wrote one, Turf Paradise had a day with 4, Keeneland has written 5, and Santa Anita had 3 or 4. A couple of the mostly Quarter Horse tracks in the west wrote one or two.

I know it’s very early in the year, so there will probably be more later on, but compared to the 3, 3 and up, and 4 year old races, the number is relatively insignificant. And I did learn about the age limits for racing.

I also looked at the South American tracks that were listed, and they tend to write races for much older horses, which I think is interesting. In Chile lots of races were for 7 yo’s and older.

[Linny]

At this time of year KY usually has one 2yo race a day. Cali and FLA have 3 or so a week. NY hasn’t run any yet. By August they will be a staple at every circuit. Most babies don’t start now until July or August. In the fall Churchill has several per day and often runs “all 2yo cards” of 9 races. The first 2yo race of the year was only run 2 weeks ago. This is not the time to look to get an accurate representation of how many 2yo races are run.

Also, “olders” make up the bulk of races because (despite what it appears if you only follow stakes racing) most horses don’t retire early. They continue to grind it out and run well on in years. Those that skipped 2yo racing for whatever reason will run here, even if they only make one start.

[Drvmb1ggl3]

@vineyridge;4026023

I just went to the DRF online and looked through the race cards at about fifteen tracks for the period from April 5 to April 18. Hawthorne, Oaklawn, Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs wrote no two year old races in that period. Gulfstream wrote one or two, Lone Star Park wrote one, Turf Paradise had a day with 4, Keeneland has written 5, and Santa Anita had 3 or 4. A couple of the mostly Quarter Horse tracks in the west wrote one or two.

I know it’s very early in the year, so there will probably be more later on, but compared to the 3, 3 and up, and 4 year old races, the number is relatively insignificant. And I did learn about the age limits for racing.

It’s A P R I L.

[Laurierace]

[QUOTE=Drvmb1ggl3;4026369]
It’s A P R I L.[/QUOTE]

No kidding! I think they changed their policy now but back when I was stabled at Penn two year olds weren’t allowed on the grounds until Easter. My own two year olds aren’t even finished being broke by this time of year.

[Linny]

Back to UBS, every one of his offspring that I know is big. They are a bad combination of early maturing and huge.
Many of the bigger later developing types are still awkward and don’t train well at 2. (Dynaformers for example) The Unbridled’s Song’s give every impression of being “mature” and act like babies that come to hand early. It’s deceptive though because they are often too big to handle the work.
As for Old Fashioned, UBS sires poor knees as does Meadowlake (his broodmare sire) so this looks to me like a bad cross to start with. (Like breeding a bad footed mare to Boundary. I know, he’s pensioned so the point is moot.)

[Equilibrium]

[QUOTE=Laurierace;4026554]
No kidding! I think they changed their policy now but back when I was stabled at Penn two year olds weren’t allowed on the grounds until Easter. My own two year olds aren’t even finished being broke by this time of year.[/QUOTE]

My 2007 is currently here still with us being brought along slowly. He was very immature physically and mentally. He’s good now and will better for the time. They are all just individuals. Last year one of our 2006 homebreds had already won - she was just a different type.

Terri

[LaurieB]

@Linny;4027175

Back to UBS, every one of his offspring that I know is big. They are a bad combination of early maturing and huge.
Many of the bigger later developing types are still awkward and don’t train well at 2. (Dynaformers for example) The Unbridled’s Song’s give every impression of being “mature” and act like babies that come to hand early. It’s deceptive though because they are often too big to handle the work.

While we’re on the subject of UBS offspring that are pushed too early: the 5th race at Keeneland today (mid-April) a Maiden Special Weight for Two Year Old Colts was won by Mission Impazible by Unbridleds Song x La Paz. Now, I’ve never seen La Paz, but I have seen her most famous offspring Forest Camp and he’s a big, heavy horse. If this colt looks anything like his half brother, the chances of him lasting much beyond two don’t seem very good. :no:

[Las_Olas]

[QUOTE=Linny;4027175]

As for Old Fashioned, UBS sires poor knees as does Meadowlake (his broodmare sire) so this looks to me like a bad cross to start with. (Like breeding a bad footed mare to Boundary. I know, he’s pensioned so the point is moot.)[/QUOTE]

I’ve not seen that bad knees are a problem with the UBSs. Most of what I’ve seen has been lower leg issues. I also asked my SO who is a 2yo training vet here in Ocala, and he said he hasn’t seen any more training issues in them as compared to other sires. Maybe the unsoundness is just a perception due to the high visability of his offspring?

Out of curiosity, why wouldn’t you breed a mare with bad feet to Boundary? His feet were fine when I was around him and we never had problems with the offspring. Obviously, there’s always one or two (such as Big Brown), but I never heard that he passed that along.