On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

A work and confirmed just two prep races for Union Rags:

[Union Rags] breezed an easy three furlongs in 38.35 seconds at Palm Meadows on Wednesday (Jan 11th) in the first work of his 3-year-old campaign.

“I’m going to try to make things as simple as possible for the horse,” Matz said. “He’s here in Florida, and the timing is good for the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby as his two preps before the Kentucky Derby."

Who knows if this 3-yr old maiden has a shot at ever going to the Derby, but he’s a sentimental named horse:

Spring Hill Farm (VA) bred by the late Ned Evans at his Spring Hill Farm. Pletcher trainee with Johnny V. getting the mount was purchased at the dispersal sale (Nov 15, 2011) for $60k by George Bolton.

He’ll make his debut in R3 Sat Jan 14th at Gulfstream Park

(The race also features a first timer for the Marylou Whitney-owned homebred - “Bird Tale” who is with Nick Zito)

Updated Wynn Las Vegas Future Book odds for the Kentucky Derby

(pdf) As of January 10, 2012 - the line is made by Race & Sports book director John Avello.

Maritimer, Canada’s likely champion 2-year-old colt , may be pointed towards the Kentucky Derby.

Wynn Vegas Odds on Maritimer are just 125-1 right now.

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6076988]
Spring Hill Farm (VA) bred by the late Ned Evans at his Spring Hill Farm. Pletcher trainee with Johnny V. getting the mount was purchased at the dispersal sale (Nov 15, 2011) for $60k by George Bolton.

He’ll make his debut in R3 Sat Jan 14th at Gulfstream Park[/QUOTE]

It was a nice, solid 6 1/2 length win for the very good looking colt. Per the announcers the horse was the last horse named by Ned himself and George after learning that would not change his name.

A race today consider today on MLK Day from Oaklawn Park: Race 8 JAN 16 “Smarty Jones Stakes” for $100k @ 1-mile (ungraded)

Race is off at 4:33 PM local time.

In the field will be the filly - On Fire Baby -against the boys and she’s already a two-time Grade 2 winner however this is her first start against the other sex. The full field is rather solid with the credentials which suggest a very good race to watch. TVG has the airing:

The one-mile race drew a competitive group of 12 that includes Optimizer, the third-place finisher in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity; Laurie’s Rocket, fourth in the Grade 1 Hopeful; Jake Mo, fifth in the $500,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint; and Reckless Jerry, the runner-up in the $300,000 Springboard Mile at Remington Park.

Maybe if On Fire Baby (f), a large, gray filly by Smoke Glacken, takes the win it could be on to the Rebel or Arkansas Derby and then the Kentucky Derby …

Video replay - Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn PArk Mon Jan 16th

While the filly didn’t pull it off she had excuses and it was fine effort. You cannot be three wide up the back stretch or more and still come back. 3rd for her was still solid. I suspect the winner (Junebugred) with “Jersey Joe” Bravo flying in just for this race from Florida as well as Reckless Jerry (place) and On Fire Baby (f) will all be pointed to the Grade 3, $250,000 Southwest Stakes on Feb. 20th.

As an aside Frank Mirahmadi’s call of the 7th race at Oaklawn with the ‘impressions voices’ was excellent!

What’s on the horizon with Derby implications?

Tampa Bay has Feb 4th the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes which will have among the entries State of Play owned by Team Valor, trained by Graham Motion and is hoping to be Animal Kingdom part two for the same group.

IMHO, Graham Motion is one heck of a trainer, and I seriously consider any horse he is working with.

Not exactly a news flash as the connections plan has been with Eclipse 2-yr Old Male winner - Hansen - to start his 3yr old career in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Jan 29th. They confirmed that intent and Gulfstream has received 52 nominations.

However “as of Monday (1/16) only four of those appear committed to the event”! The group along with Hansen includes Algorithms, Consortium, and My Adonis. The fear sets in :smiley:

A recent arrival to Gulfstream Park - from South Carolina and clearly happy to skip the election nonsense there - is Augustin Stables runner Ever So Lucky. Jonathan Sheppard has been pleased with his Camden, SC works:

“We backed off him for a couple of weeks but he’s doing fine now,” said Sheppard. “He’s already been two turns so if everything continues to go well I’d like to bring him back at seven furlongs in the Hutcheson.”

The Grade 2 Hutcheson will be run on Feb. 11.

This weekend’s graded stakes race with a full field down in New Orleans:

Jan 21st, Fair Grounds Race 11, Grade 3, $175,000 Lecomte Stakes @ 1mi 70yrds

Field of 13 with the winner taking $105k of the loot. In the field is the Oklahoma-bred Ted’s Folly who enters on a six-race win streak. Look for Exfactor, who won the Bashford Manor stakes, to make some noise.

For those looking for Churchill Downs-operated future wagers they announced the dates for the three pools consisting of 24 wagering interests: 23 individual named horses and a mutual field / “all others” interest:

Dates for the pools for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which is now in its 14th year, are:

Pool 1 – Feb. 10-12
Pool 2 – March 2-4
Pool 3 – March 30-April 1

Wagering on each of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools will open at noon (all times Eastern) on Friday and close on Sunday at 6 p.m. The KDFW Pools will feature both win and exacta wagering.

I think this is the first Top 10 of Derby contenders published that I’ve run across - from the DRF’s Mike Watchmaker (1/19/12) - his Top 10 - abridged (link gives video of each)

  1. Union Rags
  2. Hansen
  3. Creative Cause
  4. Gemologist
  5. Ever So Lucky
  6. Discreet Dancer
  7. Liaison
  8. Dullahan
  9. Out of Bounds
  10. Rousing Sermon

What about graded stakes earnings you ask? Well here is the current list:

3-yr old (male) contenders ranked by Graded earnings a quick snap shop of the top 20 as of Jan 19, 2012. I believe all fillies are intentionally omitted from this list.

Rank. — Horse — Trainer — Graded Earnings

  1. — Hansen — Michael Maker — $1,080,000
  2. — Union Rags — Michael Matz — $830,000
  3. — Sabercat — Steve Asmussen — $600,000
  4. — Wrote (IRE) — Aidan O’Brien — $556,630
  5. — Creative Cause — Mike Harrington — $488,000
  6. — Liaison — Bob Baffert — $375,000
  7. — Dullahan — Dale Romans — $375,000
  8. — Excaper — Ian Black — $240,736
  9. — Basmati — Doug O’Neill — $220,000
  10. — Drill — Bob Baffert — $210,000
  11. — Finale — Todd Pletcher — $153,345
  12. — Currency Swap — Teresa Pompay — $150,000
  13. — Crusade — Aidan O’Brien — $147,116
  14. — Rousing Sermon — Jerry Hollendorfer — $140,000
  15. — Brother Francis — James Cassidy — $120,000
  16. — Animal Spirts — Al Stall Jr. — $120,000
  17. — Prospective — Mark Casse — $115,452
  18. — Faraaj (IRE) — Roger Varian — $110,330
  19. — Jack’s In The Deck — Robin Graham — $105,000
  20. — Gemologist — Todd Pletcher — $103,855

Question - has Aidan O’Brien ever saddled a Kentucky Derby starter?

^^^ Good to know the schedule for the KDFW pools, GG!

And thrilled that Ever So Lucky is coming along fine according to Mr. Sheppard.

It’s 19 days into 2012 and frankly, I’m starting to get antsy - let’s get this show on the road and start the big preps NOW!!! :smiley:

[QUOTE=Flashy Gray VA;6091196]
And thrilled that Ever So Lucky is coming along fine according to Mr. Sheppard.[/QUOTE]

I’m certainly hoping he’s progressing as well too. Although the “he’s a miler” quip by Sheppard does make one wonder if that isn’t just a smokescreen or an honest observation.

Jam packed with observations, some meaningless of course, is the DRF’s Jeremy Plonk and his Countdown to the Crown this is his Week 3 entry (Jan. 20, 2012); he did report something on the prohibitive favorite in the Lecomte that I haven’t read elsewhere:

EXFACTOR reportedly hurt his hind end slightly by kicking his stall earlier this week and is on the fence for making the race. Any set-back before a big test, which would be his first around 2 turns, is not a positive.

Jeremy’s picks for that race: win) Seven Lively Sins, place) Ted’s Folly, and show) Mr. Bowling

Video replay of the Grade 3, $175,000 Lecomte Stakes Jan 21 at Fair Grounds

The outcome wasn’t as expected if you backed Rosie on Seven Lively Sins - yet it was a very good race. The overlooked Larry Jones trainee Mr. Bowling rose to the top just and gave Jones an impressive double of 3-yr old prep races for both sexes.

The top three finishers are all pointing to the Risen Star Feb. 25 at Fair Grounds as they continue on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Larry Jones indicated that winner Mr. Bowling would be Risen Star-bound while trainer Steve Asmussen said runner-up Z Dager would also make his next start in the Grade 2 event. Tom Amoss trained ‘Shared Property’, third, also was going for the Risen Star.

Neither Shared Property nor Mr. Bowling had started since October, but both came back to the races with determination and strength.

“This colt [Mr. Bowling] has some attributes to him,” Albarado said. “He’s got size. He’s got fight. He’s very mature for a horse with only a few starts.”

Other news …

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6078931]
Maritimer, Canada’s likely champion 2-year-old colt , may be pointed towards the Kentucky Derby.

Wynn Vegas Odds on Maritimer are just 125-1 right now.[/QUOTE]

As noted on another long running thread with the racing interests of Chechen ‘president’ Ramzan Kadyrov Maritimer has been sold to the dictator. Courier-Journal 1-23-12 "Kentucky Derby hopeful from Canada sold to controversial Chechen president’

… sold to controversial Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov for what is believed to be in the range of $1.7 million, the Toronto Star reports.

The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission said, in response to an inquiry, that Kadyrov will have to appear before the license review panel before he can be considered for a license in Kentucky.

If Maritimer can’t make the Kentucky Derby because his owner can’t get a license, he’s still the favorite for Woodbine’s Queen’s Plate, which is restricted to horses foaled in Canada.

Hansen continues to chug along at Gulfstream - his final work before the G3 Holy Bull (last weekend in Jan):

Hansen posted splits of 22.58 seconds and 34.31 for his opening quarter and three-eighths before tiring some approaching the wire, completing five furlongs in 59.81 while also appearing to lean in just a bit on his mate at the end. Hansen shut down rather quickly, galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.70.

DRF Jan 24, 2012 another off the trail: Stephanoatsee

Stephanoatsee, a half-brother to 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford, will undergo surgery Wednesday at the New Bolton Equine Clinic in Pennsylvania.

Motion said that Stephanoatsee chipped a piece off the top of the pastern bone in his right foreleg. Dr. Dean Richardson will reattach the piece rather than remove it, Motion said.

“Dean’s optimistic he could be back (training) in two months,” Graham Motion said. “If everything went smoothly he could make Saratoga. It’s disappointing. I was starting to get a little excited.”

Poor timing with one horse cited but Ray Paulick 1-24-12 gives his top 10 (abridged)

  1. Union Rags.
  1. Liaison.
  2. Hansen.
  3. Out of Bounds.
  4. Fed Biz.
  5. Creative Cause.
  6. Alpha.
  7. Stephanoatsee.[injured; out]
  8. Dullahan.
  9. Mr. Bowling.

Palm Meadows updates from DRF - news on Union Rags and Somali Lemonade AND a fabulous photo of UR by Barbara Livingston:

http://www.drf.com/news/union-rags-has-sharp-work-prepping-fountain-youth

He is a BEAST (in the nicest possible way)! :cool:

Latest Wynn|Encore Derby odds as of 1/23/12 (pdf file)

It’s worth noting that Hansen has dropped to 11/1 whereas Union Rags is at 10/1. Liaison is right behind them at 12/1. The next horse after them is Discreet Dancer at 18/1

A short price exists on “Rousing Sermon” at 20/1; the West Coast-based, Jerry Hollendorfer trained runner has finished 2nd in his last two efforts.

One race to watch folks on Sunday Jan 29th:

Equibase: Gulfstream Park Sun 1-29 Race 10 (off at 4:45pm EST) $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (Grade III)

PP. Horse … Jockey … Wgt … Trainer

  1.  Silver Max  	...  J R Leparoux. ... 	116, 	D L Romans
    
  2.  Consortium 	...  J R Velazquez. ... 	116, 	K P McLaughlin
    
  3.  My Adonis ... E Trujillo. ... 	120, 	K J Breen
    

4. Hansen … R A Dominguez. … 122, M J Maker
5. Fort Loudon … R Maragh. … 120, S I Gold
6. Algorithms. … J Castellano. … 116, T A Pletcher

By all accounts from his training Hansen should crush this field going 1-mile. Look for a while blur when he’s unleashed and maybe 1/9 odds

Oooh - thanks for the heads up!

[QUOTE=Flashy Gray VA;6101129]
Palm Meadows updates from DRF - news on Union Rags and Somali Lemonade AND a fabulous photo of UR by Barbara Livingston:

http://www.drf.com/news/union-rags-has-sharp-work-prepping-fountain-youth

He is a BEAST (in the nicest possible way)! :cool:[/QUOTE]

I can’t believe how stunning he is. I don’t know what it is about him, but he has got to be my favorite piece of eye candy at the moment.