On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[EquineLVR]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6022928]
A few bits of updates:

Dec 13 - Union Rags is back at Gulfstream Park to begin light workouts - he’ll go to Palm Meadows for more serious training after Jan 1st.

DRF Dec 13 - Hansen, O’Prado Again get on track … routine exercise (also at Gulfstream) last weekend

DRF 12-14-2011 “Ever So Lucky could put Sheppard on Kentucky Derby trail”

If Ever So Lucky gets to the Derby it will make for a brighter 2012 with George Strawbridge on the heels him being sued by Trainer Patrick Biancone for defamation and earlier in 2011 finally seeing a swindler he (and many others) lost money to Donald Anthony Walker “Tony” Young sentenced to 17 1/2 yrs in jail.[/QUOTE]

Interesting factoid on Ever So Lucky - comes out of the dam line that produced the great stallion Sicambre the mare was SIF who is in this horses dam line. Sicambre produced Sacremento Song the great sport horse progenator of Sandro who shows up in all kinds of great sport horse pedigree’s from dressage to show jumping.

You dont see SIF very often anymore in any lines so that is pretty cool…

[Glimmerglass]

Bits of updates …

Video: Hollywood Park Grade 1 $750k CashCall Futurity - Dec 17, 2011. See remarks below with some of the runners. A good, solid race to be sure and giving enough money to the winner to earn a KY Derby gate.

Latest Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby Futures wager odds (pdf) as of Dec 27, 2011. Union Rags, for example, drops to 10-1 odds in the latest Wynn report.

Hansen (now 18-1 future odds) returned to the track for half-mile work at Gulfstream Dec 24th. Breezing an easy half-mile in 0:53. Also notable - albeit unlike Hansen for potential yet determined - Nick Zito’s well-regarded juvenile Casual Trick (latest @ 65-1 Wynn Vegas odds for the Derby) put in 5F in a bullet :59 3/5, which was fastest of 56 at the distance. This in advance of his projected stakes debut in the Gulfstream Park Derby on January 1.

Worth adding to the list of horses to watch is Midnight Transfer. Prior to his maiden victory his Wynn Vegas were 300-1 and deservedly without breaking his maiden in three prior starts. The odds however remain at 300-1 as of the Wynn Vegas 12/27/11 report, hmmmm. Video here of the Santa Anita maiden victory for the son of Hard Spun and trained by Carla Gains. He won by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:08.02

Upcoming with the Santa Anita meet will be several contenders from Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen. The latter will have Hierro (35-1 Derby odds per Wynn) on Jan. 7 in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes. Asmussen trained Sabercat (40-1 Derby odds per Wynn) will not run until later in the meet, in large part because he already has enough graded stakes earnings to run in the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Anticipated for the SA meet will be Creative Cause (20-1 Derby odds per Wynn), the third-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; Tenacious Thomas (unlisted by Wynn with Derby odds) and Out of Bounds (75-1 Wynn odds for Derby victory), impressive maiden winners at Hollywood Park. Rousing Sermon (20-1 Wynn Odds) and [b]Brother Francis[b] (the second and third place, respectively, finishers in the Cash Call Futurity) are pointing to the Grade 2 Robert Lewis on Feb. 4.

From the latest Wynn report there are others with notable low odds: Liason @ 12-1 (winner of the Real Quiet Stakes and the Grade I, $750,000 CashCall Futurity), Blingo at 40-1 (owned by Jerry & Ann Moss; finished 6th in the G1 CashCall Futurity), and Alpha at 35-1 who is currently based at Palm Meadows Training Center.

[rogh]

Midnight Transfer was not on Wynn’s board until after his maiden win. He opened at 300/1 and remains at that price.

[Glimmerglass]

I don’t quite see the shot at the TC suggestion myself, but who knows … ESPN Magazine (Jan 9, 2012 edition) - “The $300,000 crapshoot: Throughbred filly Struck It Lucky may have a shot at the Triple Crown”

Struck It Lucky: 3 1-0-1
career earnings $25,698

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

We need an Oaks thread for the ladies!

For your viewing pleasure, check out Princess Arabella as she cruises home in a MSW at Santa Anita yesterday:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/race/USA/SA/2011/12/31/3/race-3

Easy. As. Pie.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Flashy Gray VA;6056188]
For your viewing pleasure, check out Princess Arabella as she cruises home in a MSW at Santa Anita yesterday.

Easy. As. Pie. :D[/QUOTE]

Indeed with the hand ride by Martin Garcia!

Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, a bloodstock consulting firm, has as of 12/29/2011 a their list of horses to watch, based upon bloodlines:

However, five young colts I’m most interested in and will be following in 2012 are Battle Force, Sky Kingdom, Algorithms, Consortium, and Discreet Dancer. It’s tempting to put Battle Force at the top of the list but it is a bit early for that as one never knows how these 2-year-olds will fare at the age of three.

Someone posed - not me - the question ‘why not cover Union Rags’ and the reply was:

Union Rags is a fast, talented colt and if he improves as a 3-year-old, he’s on track to become one of the best runners of Dixie Union and I’ll be keeping watch of his progress.

Dixie Union produced some nice middle-distance runners such as Gone Astray, Grasshopper and Turf War. And that’s how I view Union Rags, too - as a tough competitor in sprints, to a mile, to 9-furlongs.

Early in the season, Union Rags was the sole speed but the addition of Algorithms, Consortium and Discreet Dancer to the trail heats up the speed battle and it should be an interesting and exciting road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

The award for a hyped-never-was-a-contender for the Derby goes to this DRF headline: “Majestic City is off the Triple Crown trail”

I didn’t know the sprinter was even a contender - nor did his trainer Pete Miller

“I never considered him a mile-and-a-quarter horse,” Miller said.

Majestic City won his first three races, including the Willard Proctor Stakes and Hollywood Juvenile Championship. He lost his next four starts, with the best result during those races a second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in October.

Hansen is solidly on track for his 2012 debut in the Grade 3 one-mile Holy Bull January 29th. At Gulfstream, on Sat Dec 31st, Hansen worked a half-mile in 48.60 seconds before galloping out five-eighths in 1:03.60

Very fortunately Hansen wasn’t part of the carnage of horses fatally injured during that morning’s work: Stevie Jones was one of four horses who suffered severe injuries during the course of the morning.Three of the four injured horses Saturday (at Gulfstream) had to be put down. The others who broke down were unidentified horses trained by Angel Quiroz, Ken McPeek and Rick Dutrow.

[Glimmerglass]

Another potential contender for 2012’s Kentucky Derby chase is one trained by Venezuelan Augustin Bezara … Video: Jan 1, 2012 $100,000 Gulfstream Park Derby

Reveron is owned by the Stipa Racing Stable and paid $19 after completing the distance in 1:44.74 over a fast track.

“He’s the best 3-year-old in Florida now,” said Bezara through an interpreter. “We’ll see how he comes out of this race before deciding where to run next.”

Bezara’s options include the Grade 3 Holy Bull at a mile on Jan. 29 or the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 26.

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6056838]

Very fortunately Hansen wasn’t part of the carnage of horses fatally injured during that morning’s work: Stevie Jones was one of four horses who suffered severe injuries during the course of the morning.Three of the four injured horses Saturday (at Gulfstream) had to be put down. The others who broke down were unidentified horses trained by Angel Quiroz, Ken McPeek and Rick Dutrow. :([/QUOTE]
How sad. Hadn’t read about this.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=CVPeg;6061244]
How sad. Hadn’t read about this.[/QUOTE]

It really hasn’t been explained, but simply cited in passing really only by the DRF. Gulfstream is having a slew of bad circumstances.

The “unidentified Dutrow” runner was the very well known 9-yr old Arson Squad who broke down “just before completing a workout” at Gulfstream on Saturday Dec 31st. He’ll live but career is over

Arson Squad was one of four horses who broke down either during or immediately after completing workouts here Saturday. He was the only one of that group to survive.

“It definitely wasn’t the racetrack that was responsible for what happened here on Saturday,” Dutrow said. “It was just one of those freak mornings that come along every 100 years.”

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Saw another blurb that apparently Mucho Macho Man had a bit of a scare while working that morning, due to being pulled up sharply so as to avoid the downed horses.

[Glimmerglass]

12-14-2011 “Ever So Lucky could put Sheppard on Kentucky Derby trail”

Or maybe not. Note the remark from Sheppard - 01/04/12:

Sheppard said at this point he’s not even sure if Ever So Lucky is the type of horse who can stay 1 1/4 miles.

“Personally, I think he’s a little more of a miler, but we’ll let him tell us,” the 71-year-old Hall of Famer said. “Right now, I’m thinking the Hutcheson at seven furlongs might be the right place to bring him back. He’s already been two turns and that race isn’t until February, so we still have a bit of time. If all goes well, we can make further plans after that.”

His last effort, where he came up a tad short, wasn’t without some minor injury:

Sheppard said jockey Julien Leparoux told him Every So Lucky was trying to drift a bit at the end of the Kentucky Jockey Club, and he also discovered the colt had a little heat in one front leg after the race.

“We sent him to New Bolton and had him checked out thoroughly after his last start, and they did find a little wear and tear, a little bone bruising in his leg,” Sheppard said Monday

[Glimmerglass]

Saturday is another graded stakes races in California for would-be runners on the Derby trail: The Sham Stakes with $60k in graded $$ to the winner

It’s a wee bit surprising that the field is as tiny as is. You’d think for all of the hunger with black-type money to vault into the first Saturday in May that at least 10 entries would’ve been found. Perhaps Julien Leparoux flying into Cali riding Steve Asmussen trained Hierro scared them off. I suspect his girlfriend, Shea Mitchell will be there rooting him on.

Sham Stakes - Grade 3
3rd Race - Santa Anita Park - Saturday, January 7th, 2012
Distance/surface: 1 Mile Dirt.
Purse $100,000

PP Horse … Jockey … Trainer

1. Senor Rain … Talamo Joseph … Miller Peter
2. Out Of Bounds … Gomez Garrett K. … Harty Eoin G.
3. Hierro … Leparoux Julien R. … Asmussen Steven M.
4. Secret Circle … Bejarano Rafael … Baffert Bob
5. Longview Drive … Rosario Joel … Hollendorfer Jerry
6. Handsome Mike … Nakatani Corey S. … O’Neill Doug F.

HRTV has the exclusive for Santa Anita broadcast.

By the way racing that same day in the 6th is a 3-yr old horse by the name of Bobby Flay which is NOT owned by Bobby but rather Bongo Racing Stable, Gilman Racing and Michael Miller. I wonder how the owners & Jockey Club accomplished that.

At least the name is semi-fitting in so far as the Dam is “Hot Serve” and Dam-sire “Tabasco Cat”.

[Glimmerglass]

Another race to watch on Saturday Jan 7th is the ungraded - but prep for the Wood - from the Big A:

Race 8 (off @ 3:37 pm EST) - $150k Count Fleet Stakes

.PP … Horse … Jockey

1. … Il Villano … J L Flores
2. … How Do I Win … C H Velasquez
3. … Whistleblower … A Smith
4. … Stephanoatsee … J Alvarado
5. … Alpha … R A Dominguez
6. … Speightscity … D Cohen
7. … Shkspeare Shaliyah … J Valdivia, Jr.

Who else is out there looming? Gary West (Dallas Morning Star now ESPN) has 20 noisemakers - abridged list - note how low Hansen is, per Gary, on this list. I give him big props for have such a list so early and citing several horses well off the radar even if he dings my favorite Hansen.

Top 20 as of January 5, 2012

1. Union Rags
2. Fed Biz
3. Algorithms
4. Secret Circle
5. Creative Cause
   6. Hansen
6. Liaison
7. Gemologist
8. Consortium
9. Rousing Sermon
10. Sky Kingdom
11. Alpha
12. Dullahan
13. Empire Way
14. Discreet Dancer
15. Hierro
16. Optimizer
17. Brother Francis
18. Sabercat
19. Fly Lexis Fly

Nicole Russo of The Saratogian has a list of ‘Early Stars - An early look at Derby Contenders’ (Jan 5, 2012) (abridged list)

Timely Tally
Ever So Lucky
Gemologist
Union Rags
Blingo
Liaison
Alpha
Creative Cause
Stephanoatsee
Hansen

[vineyridge]

If Hansen even makes through the 3yo preps, I’ll be surprised. The Indian Charlie/In Excess line is very fragile.

[Flashy_Gray_VA]

Two fabulous 3 year olds to watch moving forward based on victories today:

Alpha (mentioned by GG) wins the Count Fleet nicely (although he still looked a bit uncomfortable in the gate). Nice looking colt like his daddy Bernardini!

And how about Discreet Dancer in the allowance at Gulf Stream? Safe to say that was a huge run. :eek:

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Flashy Gray VA;6067324]
And how about Discreet Dancer in the allowance at Gulf Stream? Safe to say that was a huge run. :eek:[/QUOTE]

Yep a solid win although I’m skeptical about the optional allowance field he ran against. That was a 5 1/2-length victory without much effort required.

Video replay of the Count Fleet Stakes win for Alpha with Ramon up. Stephanoatsee, a half-brother to 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford, rallied to get second by a neck over Il Villano. The ungraded race (but with $50k more money than Santa Anita’s Sham Stakes @ G3) was the first that Alpha ran on lasix.

Alpha, who finished second to Union Rags in the Grade 1 Champagne at Belmont last October, will likely stay in New York for the Grade 3, $200,000 Withers Stakes here on Feb. 4. The Withers is run at a 1 1/16 miles.

They’ll continue to work on his long standing gate issues before that next effort.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6064014]
Saturday is another graded stakes races in California for would-be runners on the Derby trail: The Sham Stakes with $60k in graded $$ to the winner

It’s a wee bit surprising that the field is as tiny as is. You’d think for all of the hunger with black-type money to vault into the first Saturday in May that at least 10 entries would’ve been found.[/QUOTE]

Video replay - and in the end just 5 horses broke from the gate

As for my hunch that Hierro with Julien Leparoux riding the Stonestreet (Jess Jackson) horse trained by Asmussen would be a factor … well that dissolved after the first quarter mile. He looked rank and uncomfortable. Then when he made a move before the turn you could see it was his only bullet in the chamber and not good enough to even take the lead. He finished a distant last. Since then there has been zilch for published commentary as to what went wrong and Julien didn’t tweet one word about the ride.

Instead it was GoGo, semi dismissed by the betting public, who showed up to rock the field. Garrett Gomez, who has now won all four stakes of the New Year at Santa Anita, picked up the mount on the well-bred colt. He has six stakes wins overall this meet.

Darley Stable’s homebred Out of Bounds was overlooked at 10-1 in his stakes debut, Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita, but rallied strongly to win the first graded race of the year on the Kentucky Derby trail, greatly enhancing his credentials in the process. Trained by Eoin Harty, the son of Discreet Cat relished the added ground in his first start around two turns, completing a mile in 1:34 2/5 over the fast track.

[Glimmerglass]

Alpha earned an 85-Beyer Speed Figure for the Count Fleet and as cited a few more trips to the starting gate to learn some lessons.

[Kiaran McLaughlin would] like to see Alpha school with horses around him," Magnuson said. “Sometimes you school them by themselves and they get better, but that’s not a race scenario. So, we’re going to bring him back with more horses like Roy said more often.”

Alpha was a handful in the starting gate before the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to the point where jockey Garrett Gomez had to dismount Alpha while in the gate.

He exact approach to the Derby is still being pondered:

McLaughlin said that he hasn’t determined whether Alpha would run in the Withers and the $400,000 Gotham on March 3 leading up to the $1 million Wood Memorial on April 7 or just the Withers and skip the Gotham.

Whereas Graham Motion said he would likely ship Count Fleet runner-up Stephanoatsee back to New York for the Grade 3, $200,000 Withers Stakes on Feb. 4th.

With Hansen there will be a group to see him run in the Holy Bull Stakes Jan 29th.

“This horse has been such a dream,” Dr. Hansen said about the Eclipse Award finalist. “Right now, all I can think about is January 29 and the Holy Bull Stakes. I’ve never been to Gulfstream Park before and we have a group of about 20 or 30 people set to make the trip.”

[Glimmerglass]

Off the Derby trail - O’Prado Again - and almost unsurprising is the track where it occurred: Gulfstream Park (TB Times Jan 9, 2012)

O’Prado Again, winner of the 2011 Remsen Stakes (G2), suffered a condylar fracture of his right front leg on Monday and will be sidelined for several months, according to trainer Dale Romans.

The El Prado (Ire) colt sustained the injury during a workout on Monday at Gulfstream Park. Romans told the Louisville Courier-Journal that O’Prado Again probably would have surgery in Ocala. After his recovery, he will be pointed to the major three-year-old races during the summer.

“The horse is fine, it’s just bad timing,” Romans told the Courier-Journal. “It was a big blow to our Derby dreams, but it wasn’t catastrophic. We’ll get him back in one piece, and he’ll go on to have a good career.”

[WhiteCamry]

@vineyridge;6066909

If Hansen even makes through the 3yo preps, I’ll be surprised. The Indian Charlie/In Excess line is very fragile.

Where are Indian Charlie or In Excess in Hansen’s pedigree?