On the road to the 2012 Kentucky Derby

[Lord_Helpus]

Late to the party here – I have tended to hang out at TB Champions, but those guys are so rude to each other…

Glimmer, you are a very astute handicapper. Good call on Hansen. I had heard of him, but I never would have thought to start a thread on him. I am going to keep my mouth shut and my eyes open to see who else you like. :o)

I always worry though when a really good horse is trained by a trainer who does not have experience getting a 3 year old to the Triple Crown at his peak. Baffert is a master at that, and Pletcher is learning (finally), but it is not an easy thing (if it were, more trainers would be able to do it.)

At least Hansen has the graded earnings he needs, so all his trainer has to do is worry about what prep races will serve him well.

But getting a horse to the Derby when he is not only ready to give a 100% effort, but will still be able to give 2 more 100% efforts over the following 5 weeks, takes a real master.

I should add Michael Matz to that list, although he has never had the opportunity to prove it. :sadsmile:

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Lord Helpus;5980392]
Glimmer … Good call on Hansen. I had heard of him, but I never would have thought to start a thread on him.[/QUOTE]

He was that impressive in his maiden and the 2nd race to merit significant mention. Not just showing off over a so-so field but a horse that conveyed grit and determination. A cut above the rest …

Maybe we’ll see another of that cailber on Saturday at the Big A

Equibase - R7 Sat Nov 26 @ 2:51 pm EST- Grade 2 $200k Remsen Stakes

PP. Horse … Jockey … Wgt … Trainer … M/L

1. El Padrino … J R Velazquez 116 T A Pletcher 7/2
2. Souper Speedy … J Lezcano 116 T Albertrani 3/1
3. Done Talking … A Garcia 116 H A Smith 15/1
4. Our Entourage … C H Velasquez 116 T A Pletcher 8/1
5. Mucho Mas Macho … R Silvera 116 J Aquilino 30/1
6. Stephanoatsee … R A Dominguez 116 H G Motion 4/1
7. Managed Account … R Maragh 120 T M Pompay 5/1
8. O’Prado Again … K J Desormeaux 116 D L Romans 15/1
9. Speightscity … C S Nakatani 116 G C Contessa 8/1
10. Scatter a Star … T Thornton 116 L Rivelli 20/1

Stating the obvious, but expect big things from El Padrino.

[Glimmerglass]

If you’re near any tv with HRTV tomorrow (SAT 11/26) or even better [or is it ‘bettor’] check out the Augustin Stables-owned, Jonathan Sheppard trained Ever So Lucky in the 85th annual Grade 2 $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Post position 1 with Julien Leparoux up again, they’ll notably face:

Demologist (post 9, Javier Castellano) and Timely Tally (post 3, Calvin Borel), the respective one-two finishers in a two-turn allowance on the first Stars card; Optimizer (post 6, Robby Albarado), third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity before failing to be a factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile; Mr. Prankster (post 4, Edgar Prado), second in a Presque Isle Downs stakes last out for the red-hot Mike Maker; and last-out maiden winners Africanist (post 2, Corey Lanerie), Cyber Secret (post 5, Shaun Bridgmohan), and Atigun (post 8, Manny Cruz).

Full entries here - Race 11 @ Chruchill

[Glimmerglass]

A damn fine edition of the KYJC! While the Augustin Stables runner put in a fine run from the word go - being challenged hard early by a long shot - he just came up shy (1 ¾-lengths ) in the end to the Kenny Trout-owned runner. I still think he’s looking to be a Kentucky Derby force as he matures.

Video replay: 8th edition of the Grade 2 $178,200 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs.

1 - Gemologist
2 - Ever So Lucky
3 - Timely Tally

1 1/16-mile in 1:44.46 over a fast track. It was 122-lbs for all. Absolutely no shame in defeat:

Hall of Fame trainer Jonathan Sheppard said he thought Ever So Lucky ran very well, especially given the 15-day turnaround and making the progression to a two-turn race.

“The other horse just outstayed him,” Sheppard said. “He’d had one more race, perhaps that would have made a difference. We came back a little quick. But I was proud of him…. He put up a brave fight. It was only in the last sixteenth that he grudgingly gave way, I thought.”

“He ran big,” agreed Leparoux. “He’s a nice horse, and I’m looking forward to next year.”

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;5981173]
Equibase - R7 Sat Nov 26 @ 2:51 pm EST- Grade 2 $200k Remsen Stakes. Stating the obvious, but expect big things from El Padrino.[/QUOTE]

Well a race run not exactly accordingly plan.

Video replay: Grade 2 $200k Remsen Stakes

1 - O’Prado Again who swooped in and took the win
2 - Souper Speedy (a head back)
3 - El Pradrino (also a head back)

Romans said O’Prado Again would likely ship to south Florida from New York and participate in Gulfstream Park’s series of 3-year-old races leading up to the Derby. He left open the slight possibility of running O’Prado Again back in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 17.

[CVPeg]

Been off the racing track for a bit with real life, and work with my own OTTB. Thanks, Glimmerglass, for putting everything succinctly in one location!

Hoping for a good recovery by Currency Swap. Knew Terri Pompay many moons ago.

(A bit of trivia - there was a TV movie about racing starring Kristy McNichol called “My Old Man”, filmed in Saratoga in the 80’s. Terri was her riding double in the horse racing scenes.)

[Glimmerglass]

@CVPeg;5992089

Been off the racing track for a bit with real life, and work with my own OTTB. Thanks, Glimmerglass, for putting everything succinctly in one location!

Always here to help …

Video of Terri Pompay speaking of Currency Swap in August

This DRF article from October still suggests he’ll be on the mend for the rest of 2011, but gunning for the early 2012 Derby prep races in Florida.

Amazingly on youtube the complete movie “My Old Man” exists - albeit illegally there. The CBS made-for-tv movie from 1979 was actually based upon a story by Ernest Hemingway. You can skip to about the 1 hr 39min mark to see Kristy McNichol’s character as a jockey racing at Saratoga. Filmed on location - take that Seabiscuit !

Nothing really new but the Daily Racing Form has gotten on board with looking at the early 2012 Derby odds from Vegas.

Union Rags is currently the clear-cut Derby favorite at 8-1, with Hansen all the way out at 18-1.

Creative Cause, a good third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only a length, and winner of the Norfolk and Best Pal before that, is third choice at 20-1.

Fourth choice on the Wynn line at 25-1 is Gemologist, who made it 3 for 3 with his decisive victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

El Padrino, Ever So Lucky, and Secret Circle are all grouped at 35-1.

Some other prices worthy of mention include 50-1 on Liaison, O’Prado Again, and So Brilliant. Liaison won the Real Quiet, O’Prado Again won the Remsen, and So Brilliant won the Hollywood Prevue.

Interestingly …

This one caught the eye: My Miss Aurelia, undefeated in four starts, easy winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and a mortal lock to be champion 2-year-old filly, is out there at 125-1.

[WhiteCamry]

@Glimmerglass;5992907

Amazingly on youtube the complete movie “My Old Man” exists - albeit illegally there. The CBS made-for-tv movie from 1979 was actually based upon a story by Ernest Hemingway. You can skip to about the 1 hr 39min mark to see Kristy McNichol’s character as a jockey racing at Saratoga. Filmed on location - take that Seabiscuit !

No trace horses in the post parade.

[Glimmerglass]

Not exactly a surprise with the tentative plan for Union Rags - Philadelphia Inquirer: ‘Union Rags’ handlers set agenda before Ky. Derby’

Matz is looking at the [Grade 2] $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Sunday, Feb. 26, and the [Grade 1] $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday, March 31. Both races are at Gulfstream Park. The first is at 1-1/16 mile and the second is 1 1/8 mile.

“That should be enough,” Matz said. “The timing couldn’t be any better.”

[Glimmerglass]

The Kentucky Enquirer (Nov 28) tipped some info on Hansen, the owner and horse:

Did Dr. Hansen make some bank in addition to the BC JV purse and selling a off a portion of the horse? You betcha!

Just before Hansen’s final prep race in the Bluegrass Cat Kentucky Cup Juvenile, the owner also traveled to Las Vegas and bet $500 on the horse to win the Breeders’ Cup race — at 40 to 1 odds — that adds up to a $20,000 payoff.

Hansen [also on Breeders’ Cup Saturday] collected about $500,000 in Pick 4 wagers on race day.

As for Hansen - the horse - and his road to the Derby it looks like he could meet Union Rags not once but twice:

Right now, the plan is to run Hansen in the [Grade 3] Holy Bull Stakes in January and the [Grade 2] Fountain of Youth Stakes in February, both at Gulfstream Park in Florida. Then Hansen and trainer Michael Maker will have a decision to make.

Hansen has always wanted to run a really good horse in [Grade 3] Turfway’s Spiral Stakes, but Maker is leaning toward the [Grade 1] Florida Derby at Gulfstream.

[jennywho]

Sitting next to us at dinner the night of the BC was the guy that trained Hansen’s dam. Such a nice guy and he was so excited. I think he said he claimed the mare for $5k. It was fun to see him so tickeled, and he should be.

[Lord_Helpus]

A new one to watch – Discreet Dancer just broke the Gulfstream track record for 5 1/2f in his debut, winning by almost 10 lengths. Trained by Todd Pletcher (who else…), this son of Discreet Cat (another Darley horse who was totally mismanaged because the Sheik wanted him to run in Dubai instead of keeping him in the US and letting him become a solid GI horse – he beat Bernardini as a 3 year old before disappearing for a year…), out of a Gone West mare, has the genes to be any kind of really good horse.

If Pletcher can get the seasoning and Graded stakes $$ into him without rushing him (something hard to do – he may not make the Derby, but may be a solid horse for the Preakness), he could be a contendah!

He has run as a 2 year old, so at least he has beaten that jinx.

[Glimmerglass]

[QUOTE=Lord Helpus;6003711]
A new one to watch – Discreet Dancer just broke the Gulfstream track record for 5 1/2f in his debut, winning by almost 10 lengths. [/QUOTE]

Agreed this could be one to watch - Video replay (youtube) 12-3-11 Race 3 Gulfstream Park

Then again he could be a runner like Maclean’s Music last year. A whopping 114-Beyer in crushing career debut - Mar 2011 - and never seen ever again on a track. Still let’s hope 'Dancer’s career isn’t like that.

[Lord_Helpus]

I had forgotten all about MacLean’s Music. Poor horse. To go from super star to trivia question…

Did he hurt himself? Was he a gelding?

[Glimmerglass]

A few bits of updates:

Dec 13 - Union Rags is back at Gulfstream Park to begin light workouts - he’ll go to Palm Meadows for more serious training after Jan 1st.

DRF Dec 13 - Hansen, O’Prado Again get on track … routine exercise (also at Gulfstream) last weekend

“[Hansen] never left my barn, but he just took it easy after the Breeders’ Cup,” reported Maker who is scheduled to arrive here later in the week. “We’ll see how it goes over the next several weeks. We’ll take a look at the Holy Bull, and if he’s ready, he’s ready. If not, we’ll probably just wait for the Fountain of Youth.”

DRF 12-14-2011 “Ever So Lucky could put Sheppard on Kentucky Derby trail”

The only rule about training a horse to win the Kentucky is that there are no hard and fast rules – even the one about preferring a candidate to have two-turn experience as a 2-year-old.

“I guess it’s the idea of exposing them to the distance, and some young horses are a little bit confused, because they’re so used to breaking out of a chute, going around the turn to the wire and then stopping,” Sheppard said. “But in the end they can either run or they can’t, whether it’s around one turn, two turns or three turns.”

To Sheppard, the Derby challenge is more about the timing of the race in relation to the development of most Thoroughbreds.

“The odd horse who happens to be bred to be a stayer and trains like a stayer and has a lot of natural stamina, he would be fine. But I think most people try to make their horses fit a program they’re not cut out for.”

“So I’m not going to do anything stupid to get there,” Sheppard added. “But if it happens, that would be very nice indeed.”

If Ever So Lucky gets to the Derby it will make for a brighter 2012 with George Strawbridge on the heels him being sued by Trainer Patrick Biancone for defamation and earlier in 2011 finally seeing a swindler he (and many others) lost money to Donald Anthony Walker “Tony” Young sentenced to 17 1/2 yrs in jail.

[Glimmerglass]

(pdf) Wynn Las Vegas Future Odds Book. 128th KY Derby - updated DEC 15, 2011 but cited “as of 12/11/11”

Hansen has dropped to 18-1 and Union Rags at 10-1; Ever So Lucky dropped to 24-1, Gemologist at 25-1, O’Prado Again at 28-1; Liaison at 25-1.

Just some otherwise lower profile names with movement to being sub 100-1 odds …

Big Blue Nation @ 75-1
Consortium @ 50-1
Hammers Terror @ 75-1
Hierro @ 50-1
Empire Way @ 60-1
Indian Ambush @ 75-1
Motor City @ 75-1
Sabercat @ 40-1
Secret Circle @ 30-1
Sir Bond @ 75-1
Sky Kingdom @ 50-1
Unbridled Note @ 75-1
Stat @ 85-1

[CVPeg]

Derby & Oaks will now have also-eligibles!

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/66621/ky-derby-oaks-will-allow-four-also-eligibles?source=rss

This will allow an additional entry(s) in the event of a late scratch(es). Will draw in based on graded stakes earnings.

[Glimmerglass]

Re: New for 2012 AE for the Kentucky Derby

Seems foolish in my view.

If you ask any trainer with a starter in years past when it dropped below 20 due to scratches it was welcomed. Not because a giant was knocked out, but rather there would be a slightly reduced cavalry charge and injuries. I’m more of the view that while a developing horse might’ve been shut out there are other races and frankly the connections should’ve tried to earn more money to be secured a spot.

So what about all the event merchandise (along with the Racing Form) that is traditionally printed up for the entries right after the Weds draw? All that is on hold until 10 am Friday. Traditionally between Wed and Saturday morning even casual bettors are reviewing the final field. Now there is the potential for a wildcard entry 24-hours prior in the Derby. (Less than 10-hours for the Oaks)

The press-release doesn’t state it but if there is a scratch say of the 1-PP does the AE take that or will the AE get the 20th slot and everyone else moves to the right?

[CVPeg]

[QUOTE=Glimmerglass;6025497]

If you ask any trainer with a starter in years past when it dropped below 20 due to scratches it was welcomed. Not because a giant was knocked out, but rather there would be a slightly reduced cavalry charge and injuries. [/QUOTE]

When I first saw the headline, I immediately thought, well then, does that also mean they have dropped the field down from 20?

I’ve happened to catch a couple of older replays of TC races lately. Just amazing seeing the much smaller fields. But Secretariat winning the Belmont 2 seconds faster than the record certainly proved the feat isn’t based on the number of horses you’re passing.

[WhiteCamry]

More KD pedantry:

The KD post positions of the Triple Crown winners:

1919 (Sir Barton) - pp1 of 12 runners
1930 (Gallant Fox) - pp7 of 15 runners
1935 (Omaha) - pp10 of 18 runners
1937 (War Admiral) - pp1 of 20 runners
1941 (Whirlaway) - pp4 of 11 runners
1943 (Count Fleet) - pp5 of10 runners
1946 (Assault) - pp2 of 17 runners
1948 (Citation) - pp1 of 6 runners
1973 (Secretariat) - pp10 of 13 runners
1977 (Seattle Slew) - pp4 of 15 runners
1978 (Affirmed) - pp2 of 11 runners