Video of Justify VS AP in similar workout
https://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/JonathanLintner/Justify_vs_American_Pharoah_Their_works_side_by_side_123#
Thoughts?
I still think AP is the better horse. The type of horse who is awe inspiring when they gallop. Justify likes his job as much as AP did, both gallop around with their ears pricked but I think AP liked it a bit more. Hard to find a horse who pricks their ears at the top of the stretch and takes off like a rocket. To me, AP had the kick in the stretch to take off and pull away. I don’t see much of that with Justify
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My somewhat rusty take - Justify has a longer and more efficient stride. Been wrong before. According to a couple of friends in the running horse industry, Justify should win
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Ear pricking during a race is significant of effort. A horse that is flat out always has the ears pinned back. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t “like” what he is doing - he’s just trying really hard.
During training, a horse that is galloping with it’s ears pricked forward may be really apprehensive and spooky and worried about what is in front of it. Ideally the horse is interested in where he is going but also flicks an ear back to the rider because he is listening to the rider as well.
I personally prefer a smaller horse like AP over a big horse like Justify - I think they have better tactical speed and stay sounder longer. But get a big horse right in a race that fits them and they are hard to beat. I think Arrogate at his peak would have beat just about any horse any where. I don’t see Justify following in AP’s footsteps simply because he is bigger and will be harder to hold together all year long. I do hope I’m wrong, though, and we have another TC/BC winner.
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Mostly I was thinking: Same trainer and same MO.
Is there any advantage to training up to Belmont stakes on CD track? I know it’s the longest stretch, but other than that? What other benefits?
Thanks so much! I’m learning lots of good stuff from you people!
I know much about horses, but other than reading - not so much about racehorses.
A question from someone else who doesn’t know a lot about racehorses other than from reading –
Why go all the way back to CD from Pimlico only to have to turn around and fly back east to NY?
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Bob has other horses stabled at Churchill and had already set up camp there before the derby = much easier for their team instead of shipping 1 or 2 to Belmont alone with the people necessary to care for them. I think Bob also prefers the Churchill facilities.
I kind of wish they got justify to Belmont at least in the last week as Big Sandy is an entirely new ballgame; track looks like it will be dry on race day. But I’m pretty sure Bob feels confident in what hes doing
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Nope, none whatsoever. What is best is for the horse to be settled, relaxed and comfortable as much as possible, mostly with the horses who have been running a lot. When you ship to a new track, it stresses the horse and the horse has to adapt. Maybe Baffert feels Justify will be more settled in KY and thinks the extra trip will not take as much out of him as would spending a few weeks in a new stall at Belmont. Justify hasn’t said much about the subject. 
WRT the track surface, the horse either likes it or doesn’t like it. You don’t hear much about a horse “not liking” Belmont, it’s a pretty fair track.
The Belmont is shaping up to be a good race, and I think the winner will have to run full throttle to the bottom of his pedigree. I don’t think we are going to see a race like AP’s Belmont where he was clearly going to win it.
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CD is home base for Justify during this campaign and, as others have noted, rest and relaxation with their usual grooms, exercise riders and surroundings rejuvenate tired horses more then the stress of moving around. It’s very fair to note the logistics of keeping a few horses and staff to care for them at a non base track for more then a short time might be more of a disadvantage to a horse that’s an experienced and good shipper. As is his successful trainer known for perfectly prepping his horses for their best efforts in specific races. These horses ship into races all the time these days.
IMO, having watched so many over decades coming into this race at the same point in his career? Have to say no and hope I’m wrong. It’s meaningless to compare his movement with AP, he’s not racing him. My 3 concerns are he did get frazzled last time out. Belmont will be more chaotic with a huge crowd and the gate is smack in front of the stands, seen several very good colts come unglued loading in front of that wall of noise. And it will be alot warmer then his last two races, actually it will be hot, he’s a real big stout horse. Just afraid he might leave his race in the pre race festivities and gate. It happens. If he’s fussy and washed out at the gate we’ll know.
If he gets past that, he’s going to need tactical speed. Does he have it? Never been asked… just a guess but they might have been trying to school that in the last week or so, don’t think he’s going to wire the field at 12 furlongs and don’t know if he’s patient enough to stalk. Doesn’t seem to be a come from behinder with a huge kick after a mile and a quarter in the heat. Also don’t know how gutsy he is, some dig in for more when seriously challenged and just refuse to be passed running on heart or just find another gear. Just don’t know.
Third thing is fresher, high quality horses that are home based at Belmont. That’s where my money would go. Could be wrong, hope so. Also hope he doesn’t follow the example of Big Brown with the shoe thing IIRC or Charismatic who could have won the TC when the turned down the stretch. He’s a nice horse, hope he turns in a respectable performance win or not And comes back sound for a late summer campaign and the BC.
On the purely superstitious side, in the past, there have been long gaps between TC winners followed by more then one in a short span of time.
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Thank you Palm Beach and all of you for your insightful answers!
Is CD having racing right now or are they closed for the season?
