Does he have any results in the Nationally rated divisions or just in the unrated Hunters below 3’? That does effect his market value, it would be the
difference between closer to 20 or closer to 40k+. There are many Nationally unrated divisions at A and AA rated shows these days. The shows nicer, competition may be stiffer but a horse with a record in a Nationally rated division is going to price up over one with only non rated results.
where are you located? Horses price higher in large metropolitan areas with high cost of living and higher salaries, lower in less densely populated, lower cost areas. Same horse could be 30k in the East coast and under 20k in the Midwest. Trainers reputation for producing good horses and attracting buyers and those looking for a lease in that price range also factors in.
Regardless of what the horse you are leasing is “worth”, you need to value it for your area. For instance, if you decide to value at 40k and ask 15k for a 1 year lease? And the majority of similar horses in your area generally sell under 20k? That would be overpriced and you’d be unlikely to find anybody. And you need to price according to the price people with your trainer in your barn and the buyers the trainer attracts typically are willing to pay. I mean, you price at 40k and the most expensive horse trainer has in the barn or has handles as agent is 20k? Probably not going to attract anybody looking at 40k.
Pricing is kind of complicated unless you are talking WEF or Indoor levels. Very locally dependent. Age, breed/type, size and color can also factor in. This one is Appendix so considered less desireable then a WB, that effects price. So can number of similar horses out there for sale or lease and what they actually sell or lease for as opposed to the advertised or barn gossip price.
Just to throw something out there, In my mid priced area, similar horse successfully showing local and at rated venues in 2’6" to 2’9" unrated Hunters would price in the 12500-20k range, probably lease about 3-5k a year. More in an expensive area. If it had a rated 3’ division record, that could easily double, if the record was at prestige shows, talking some real money.
You have to be careful to understand you need to present what buyer/those wanting to lease, are looking to get the highest price-16.2 WB with rated record. And not to assume any horse leased or sold at the advertise or barn gossip price…some tend to inflate the actual amounts on those checks to enhance their reputation.